Today’s political discussions can be frustrating and unhelpful, in large part because people disagree about what the “facts” of any subject are, beyond the “normal” problem of post-modern rejection of the notion of any such thing as absolute truth.
Consider the matter of the impact of tariffs on general rates of inflation. In principle, tariffs can result in a one-time increase in prices, but not inflation (a general rise in prices for all goods and services).
If there are any facts we might not generally disagree about, it is that inflation pressures exist, and have existed for some time.
The bulk (80 percent to 90 percent) of total inflationary price increases, especially in key areas such as housing, health care, childcare, food and energy, occurred after 2017, but were caused by non-trade shocks. COVID-19 added 10 percent to 15 percent price increases across the economy by 2022, for example.
Other areas where consumers see higher prices are essentially insulating from tariffs, such as child care and healthcare (70 percent or more of costs are entirely domestic).
Food and energy imports did face tariffs but were dwarfed by global events. Pandemic meatpacking disruptions in 2020 caused at least a 10 percent spike. ) The avian flu (2022-2023) explains 70 percent of rise in egg and chicken prices. Also, imported food tariffs affected about five percent of U.S. food supply items.
Sector | Pre-Tariff Increase (2016-2017 to End-2017) | Post-Tariff Increase (End-2017 to End-2024) | Total Increase (2016-2024) | Non-Tariff Drivers |
Housing (Shelter CPI) | +3.3% | +29.5% | +33.5% | Driven by low inventory (U.S. built 5M fewer homes than needed post-2008) and rent controls in high-demand areas; tariffs on lumber/steel added ~1-2% at most. |
Food (Food at Home CPI) | +0.8% | +26.2% | +27.1% | Pandemic meatpacking disruptions (2020: +10% YoY) and avian flu (2022-2023) explain 70%+ of rise; imported food tariffs minimal (~5% of U.S. supply). |
Healthcare (Medical Care CPI) | +2.1% | +22.4% | +24.7% | Prescription drug prices up 15% pre-2018 due to patent protections; hospital consolidations added 5-7% annually. Tariffs irrelevant to domestic services. |
Child Care (Avg. Annual Cost) | +3.0% (est. from 2016 baseline ~$10,000) | +31.3% (to $13,128 in 2024) | +34.6% | Post-2020 wage hikes for providers (+25%) and 20% capacity loss from closures; exceeds general CPI by 10+ points, per DOL data. No direct tariff link. |
Energy (Overall Energy CPI) | -2.5% (oil price dip) | +28.1% | +25.1% | 2022 Ukraine war caused +50% gasoline spike; renewables transition volatility. Pre-2018 shale oversupply kept prices low; tariffs on imported oil negligible. |
In sum, in each of these key consumer spending categories, there were other forces driving most of the price increases:
Housing: Chronic underbuilding since the 2008 financial crisis, zoning restrictions, and rising construction material/labor costs fueled by domestic shortages and low interest rates until 2022.
Food: Supply chain disruptions (e.g., weather events, labor shortages), the COVID-19 pandemic's lasting effects on processing and transportation, and commodity price volatility from events like the 2022 Ukraine conflict.
Healthcare: Aging population demands, regulatory complexities, pharmaceutical pricing dynamics, and insurance market consolidations—issues predating tariffs by decades.
Child Care: Labor shortages in the sector (wages rose 20-30% post-2020 to attract workers), pandemic-related closures leading to reduced capacity, and insufficient public subsidies, with costs outpacing general inflation by 7 percentage points from 2020-2024.
Energy: Geopolitical tensions (e.g., OPEC decisions pre-2018), the shale boom's volatility, and the 2020-2022 global energy crunch from pandemic recovery and the Russia-Ukraine war—notably, U.S. gasoline prices spiked 50%+ in 2022 before new 2025 tariffs.
Category | Pre-Tariff Increase (2012–2017 Annualized %) | Post-Tariff Increase (2018–Sep 2025 Annualized %) | Key Non-Tariff Drivers | Sources |
Housing | +5.2% (FHFA HPI from ~250 to ~320 index) | +6.1% (to ~435 index; +70% cumulative since 2012) | Supply shortages, low rates, zoning | FHFA HPI; FRED USSTHPI |
Food | +2.4% (CPI food from ~230 to ~250 index) | +3.8% (to ~290 index; +25% since 2019) | Pandemic disruptions, weather, labor | BLS CPI Food; USDA ERS Outlook |
Healthcare | +3.1% (CPI medical care from ~430 to ~480 index) | +3.5% (to ~580 index; +35% since 2010) | Aging population, drug costs, consolidation | BLS CPI Medical Care; US Inflation Calculator |
Child Care | +4.1% (Costs up ~25% from ~$9K to ~$11K avg annual/infant) | +5.3% (to ~$15K avg; +67% since 2010) | Provider wages, regulations, demand | EPI Child Care Costs; Living Wage Institute |
Energy | + (-1.2)% (CPI energy volatile, net flat from ~200 to ~195 index) | +2.9% (to ~270 index; +39% since 2019) | Geopolitics, AI demand, grid delays | BLS CPI Energy; BLS CPI Summary |
Some point out that only about 20 percent of tariff costs show up in consumer prices, which might still be seen as important, even if the main drivers lie elsewhere:
Shelter costs have risen close to 34 percent since 2019, outpacing household income growth by more than 12 percentage points
Egg and beef prices are higher, yes. But in most years, ranchers struggle to earn a profit; the cattle herd shrank and we had a drought in 2022
Avian flu wiped out millions of hens, quadrupling egg prices overnight
Child-care costs have risen 10 points faster than overall inflation, driven by rising wages and shifts in the labor market.
Paradoxically, in the sectors where tariffs are in place (cars, bicycles, and washing machines), prices have risen less than overall inflation because durable goods companies compete fiercely for market share and absorb most of the tariff costs rather than passing them on to consumers.
