Osborne 1, iPad 2: 30 Years of Device Evolution

You often hear it said these days that, for many users, the smartphone will be "the computer" people use. For others, it might be the case that a tablet becomes the PC. Compare the features of the Osborne 1, the first "transportable" personal computer, with an Apple iPad 2, for example.

Kind of an industrial-looking device, the Osborne was. read more here

U.S. Social Commerce: $14 Billion in 2015

Social commerce is a hard concept to grasp. In principle, though, it is the idea that people will influence what other people buy.

The new wrinkle is simply that social software, networks and recommendations are starting to play a significant role in the process, where it once was a word of mouth process.

The difference is that the magnitude of such online and social word of mouth is amplified.

Dish Buys Blockbuster

Dish Network Corp. has won a bankruptcy auction for Blockbuster, offering about $320.6 million for the movie-rental chain. Dish, unlike some of the other bidders, has said it would keep some of the stores open as retail locations to support sales of Dish services.

Some may question the wisdom of that move, but Apple also was highly criticized for opening its own retail stores. There now is recognition that the retail outlets now play a huge role in Apple's sales and support process, though. Likewise, mobile service providers have found retail locations to be crucial for selling mobile services.

Dish Network Corp. has won a bankruptcy auction for Blockbuster, offering about $320.6 million for the movie-rental chain. Dish, unlike some of the other bidders, has said it would keep some of the stores open as retail locations to support sales of Dish services.

Some may question the wisdom of that move, but Apple also was highly criticized for opening its own retail stores. There now is recognition that the retail outlets now play a huge role in Apple's sales and support process, though. Likewise, mobile service providers have found retail locations to be crucial for selling mobile services.

But Blockbuster also brings other assets that do mesh with the current Dish strategy, including the Blockbuster online and kiosk vending services. Dish also has been making other moves in the mobile and on-demand video business, though some analysts might claim they do not yet fully understand what the grand strategy is. Neither would Dish CEO Charlie Ergen, either, at this point. Rather, Ergen seems to understand that the TV business is changing, and that mobile and online services are part of that future.

The Blockbuster acquisition therefore would seem to complement a growing interest by Dish in alternative distribution channels and business models.

Dish also earlier acquired DBSD North America, Inc., a hybrid satellite and terrestrial communications company, for approximately $1 billion. DBSD has a license to operate in 8 MHz worth of spectrum.

Frontier Wireless, the wholly owned subsidiary of Dish, also owns 168 licenses in the 700 MHz range, covering about 76 percent of the U.S. population. The licenses represent 5 MHz worth of spectrum. There has been speculation about what Dish might plan to do with such spectrum, but the purchases of other assets supporting terrestrial mobile service with satellite backhaul suggest a possible move into a video service usable by mobile devices.

It is possible to use the same approach to deliver signals to fixed locations such as homes, but bandwidth constraints would make an on-demand service difficult. A more logical approach would be linear video or multicast services based on use of mobile devices.

Sister company Echostar, for its part, owns Slingbox and now Hughes Network Systems, which gives Echostar a new international business revenue stream, enterprise networks and an owned satellite network offering significant new wide-area distribution capability. Whether those assets might play a role in Dish strategy is not immediately clear.

What does seem logical is that a couple of the Dish assets could be used to create a mobile-focused video service. A technology known as TDtv supports mobile multicast content, delivering as many as 14 high-quality, 300 kbps video streams channels using only 5 MHz of unpaired spectrum. It contains a built-in uplink capability that will allow for some digital video recorder features as well.

For its part, Clearwire also has been talking to satellite concerns about creating some sort of mobile TV service as well, though nothing concrete seems to have emerged from those talks.

CEO Charlie Ergen has not been shy about suggesting that if an entrepreneur wanted to get into the TV distribution business today, that person might well take a "Netflix" style, over the top approach, rather than launch satellites or even build cable networks. Another analogy Ergen has used in the past is fixed and mobile voice service. Essentially, he has likened satellite-delivered TV to fixed-line voice, while online video is more like mobile voice. In other words, the original business was TV by satellite, but the future business will be online.

There might not yet be a clear grand strategy for how Dish uses all the new assets, but it is clear enough that Ergen wants to fashion a business model that is built more on mobile and online video, and less on satellite video delivered to fixed locations.


But Blockbuster also brings other assets that do mesh with the current Dish strategy, including the Blockbuster online and kiosk vending services. Dish also has been making other moves in the mobile and on-demand video business, though some analysts might claim they do not yet fully understand what the grand strategy is. Neither would Dish CEO Charlie Ergen, either, at this point. Rather, Ergen seems to understand that the TV business is changing, and that mobile and online services are part of that future.

The Blockbuster acquisition therefore would seem to complement a growing interest by Dish in alternative distribution channels and business models.

Dish also earlier acquired DBSD North America, Inc., a hybrid satellite and terrestrial communications company, for approximately $1 billion. DBSD has a license to operate in 8 MHz worth of spectrum.

Frontier Wireless, the wholly owned subsidiary of Dish, also owns 168 licenses in the 700 MHz range, covering about 76 percent of the U.S. population. The licenses represent 5 MHz worth of spectrum. There has been speculation about what Dish might plan to do with such spectrum, but the purchases of other assets supporting terrestrial mobile service with satellite backhaul suggest a possible move into a video service usable by mobile devices.

It is possible to use the same approach to deliver signals to fixed locations such as homes, but bandwidth constraints would make an on-demand service difficult. A more logical approach would be linear video or multicast services based on use of mobile devices.

Sister company Echostar, for its part, owns Slingbox and now Hughes Network Systems, which gives Echostar a new international business revenue stream, enterprise networks and an owned satellite network offering significant new wide-area distribution capability. Whether those assets might play a role in Dish strategy is not immediately clear.

What does seem logical is that a couple of the Dish assets could be used to create a mobile-focused video service. A technology known as TDtv supports mobile multicast content, delivering as many as 14 high-quality, 300 kbps video streams channels using only 5 MHz of unpaired spectrum. It contains a built-in uplink capability that will allow for some digital video recorder features as well.

For its part, Clearwire also has been talking to satellite concerns about creating some sort of mobile TV service as well, though nothing concrete seems to have emerged from those talks.

CEO Charlie Ergen has not been shy about suggesting that if an entrepreneur wanted to get into the TV distribution business today, that person might well take a "Netflix" style, over the top approach, rather than launch satellites or even build cable networks. Another analogy Ergen has used in the past is fixed and mobile voice service. Essentially, he has likened satellite-delivered TV to fixed-line voice, while online video is more like mobile voice. In other words, the original business was TV by satellite, but the future business will be online.

There might not yet be a clear grand strategy for how Dish uses all the new assets, but it is clear enough that Ergen wants to fashion a business model that is built more on mobile and online video, and less on satellite video delivered to fixed locations.

Google Tackles Privacy

These days, Google is facing more scrutiny from regulators on a number of consumer protection issues, including privacy and sharing of information. Google won't be the only firm affected by growing concern about information sharing by mobile and other applications.

9% of Mobile Video Users Consume 38% of Bandwidth

An analysis by Bytemobile suggests that nine percent of mobile subscribers consuming video content represent 38 percent of total data volume on the network. About 10 percent of mobile data users generate approximately 90 percent of total traffic, the analysis also finds. But you might be quite surprised about some of the other findings.

Bytemobile measured the video data volume of the top three percent of videos requested on the network, representing about three million videos in all. The analysis also suggests that 40 percent of total video data volume on wireless networks is generated by just the top three percent of videos.

Also, though Internet videos average approximately five minutes in length, users watch them for an average of less than 60 seconds. In fact, the majority of mobile data subscribers watch only the first few seconds of any given video.

The Bytemobile data includes devices such as Android and  iPhone devices, iPads and laptop data.

read more here

House votes to overturn FCC on Net neutrality

By a vote of 241 to 178, the House of Representatives has adopted a one-page resolution that says, simply, the regulations adopted by the Federal Communications Commission on December 21 "shall have no force or effect."

The Senate has not yet voted on the resolution of disapproval. A parallel version of the legislation in that chamber has 39 sponsors, close to the majority of supporters required to pass the resolution in the Senate.

House votes to overturn FCC on Net neutrality | Privacy Inc. - CNET News

Will Africa Be the First "Post-PC Continent?

Africa might become the first "post-PC" continent.

IDC, for example, estimates that in South Africa, 800,000 PCs were shipped in 2010 and the number is expected to decline by about four percent annually to reach 650,000 by 2015. Meanwhile, 1.3 million mobile handsets were shipped in 2010 and that rate is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate of nine percent to reach two million annually by 2015.

In the rest of Africa, 3.7 million PCs were shipped in 2010 and annual shipments will rise to 6.9 million 2015. Still, the number of smartphones shipped is expected to rise at a higher rate.

In Nigeria, IDC projections show that 1.5 million smartphones and 17.2 million feature phones will be shipped in 2011. By 2015, both markets are expected to grow, reaching, respectively, 3.2 million and 21.3 million units shipped. For smartphones, that's a CAGR of 21.7 percent.

"In Kenya, 64 percent of users listen to digital music by mobile phones while 24 percent access via PCs, 45 percent prefer to chat via mobile and 25 percent use PCs; in Uganda, 48 percent listen to music via mobile while 26 percent use PCs and 40 percent chat via mobile compared to 23 percent who prefer PC," said Melissa Baker, CEO of TNS RMS East Africa.

Research indicates that in a typical sub-Saharan African country, a 10 percent increase in mobile penetration results to a corresponding 0.8 percent GDP growth," said Woon Peng, Nokia Head of Services in Middle East and Africa.

Africa banking on mobile to be first post-PC continent

Cord Cutting Accelerating or Not?

Though perhaps just 1.4 percent of consumers have "cut the cord" in the last two years, abandoning multichannel TV services, about 7 percent of current subscribers are considering canceling their service, according to a survey to be published in the May issue of Consumer Reports.

But L.E.K. surveys recently found little actual evidence of increased cord cutting, though. To date, only two percent of L.E.K. survey respondents are cord cutting.

A more serious issue facing cable and satellite providers is “cord trimming,” the term for consumers who keep – but reduce – their monthly cable or satellite TV services. L.E.K. found that 16 percent of consumers reported reducing their monthly pay TV bills during the past year. Those cord trimmers reduced their pay TV bills by an average of 25 percent.

Cord Cutting Accelerating or Not?

Mobile Video Usage Up 40%

The number of U.S. mobile subscribers watching video on their mobile devices rose more than 40 percent year-over-year in both the third and fourth quarters of 2010, ending the year at nearly 25 million people, according to Nielsen. These mobile video users watched an average of four hours and 20 minutes of mobile video per month in both the third and fourth quarter of 2010–a 33 percent and 20 percent year-over-year increase in each quarter respectively.

The growing popularity of mobile video is due, in part, to the rapid adoption of mediafriendly mobile devices, including smartphones. Whereas in the fourth quarter of 2009 only 23 percent of U.S. mobile subscribers had smartphones, by the end of 2010 smartphone penetration had reached 31 percent. Over time, it also has become easier to find, view and share mobile video, either via mobile apps or the mobile web.

Early Tablet Adopters Were Different in Lots of Ways

Early adopters of Apple iPads and tablet devices of various types, including e-readers, are, as you  might suspect, more likely to be "high consumers" compared to the rest of the population.

Much the same pattern holds for other forms of media as well: tablet owners consume more of everything. Tablet owners report they watch 48 hours of TV a week, compared to 37 hours for non-tablet owners. Table owners listen to 11 hours of radio a week, compared to eight hours for non-tablet owners.

Tablet owners listen to 11 hours of music a week, compared to 6.6 hours for non-tablet owners. Tablet owners watch 10 hours worth of movies, compared to four hours for non-tablet owners. Tablet owners paly 18 hours a week worth of games, compared to six hours for non-tablet owners. Tablet owners report consumng 14 hours worth of published material, compared to eight hours for non-tablet owners.

In fact, L.E.K. argues that online digital media consumption actually is declining for nontablet owners, while digital consumption is surging for tablet owners. Over the last 12 months, the study of 2,000 respondents suggests, 19 percent of non-tablet owners say their consumption of online newspaper content has declined. Likewise, 20 percent of non-tablet owners reported that their online book consumption has decreased over the last year. Also, 20 percent of non-tablet owners reported that their consumption of digital magazines has declined as well, over the last 12 months.

By way of contrast, 28 percent of tablet owners reported more consumption of online newspaper content, 30 percent reported higher e-book readership and 29 percent said they were consuming more online magazine content.

read more here

7% Of Video Subs Thinking About Dropping Service?

Though perhaps just 1.4 percent of consumers have "cut the cord" in the last two years, abandoning multichannel TV services, about seven percent of current subscribers are considering canceling their service, according to a survey to be published in the May issue of Consumer Reports. See Survey: 7% Of Pay-TV Subs Pondering Pulling The Plug - 2011-04-05 12:32:28 | Multichannel News.

But L.E.K. surveys recently found little actual evidence of increased cord cutting, though. To date, only two percent of

L.E.K. survey respondents are cord cutting.

A more serious issue facing cable and satellite providers is “cord trimming,” the term for consumers who keep – but reduce –

their monthly cable or satellite TV services. L.E.K. found that 16% of consumers reported reducing their monthly pay TV bills

during the past year. Those cord trimmers reduced their pay TV bills by an average of 25 percent.

http://www.lek.com/sites/default/files/l.e.k._hidden_opps_media_survey_ei_2011.pdf

Mobile Data Sharing Under Review

Internet applications are lightly regulated. But that is not to say regulation will not occur, albeit taking the form of antitrust investigations or consumer protection. With talk of Google becoming "too big," and Pandora being looked at as part of a wider probe, it appears a potential new wave of application regulation might be coming.

LivingSocial Raises $400 Million

LivingSocial, the number two player in the burgeoning daily coupon website market, has raised $400 million to help fuel its expansion and keep up with rival Groupon Inc., the Wall Street Journal reports.

The investment round, raised from existing investors Lightspeed Venture Partners and Amazon.com, and new ones such as Institutional Venture Partners, values the three-year old company at around $ 3 billion.

You can argue there is a "bubble" going on for Internet ventures, or you can argue that the next great wave of Internet companies is coming into view. You might argue both propositions are true. Even if there is a valuation bubble, the last great Internet bubble nevertheless produced the current leading companies of the Internet application space. That is likely to be the case for some companies of the current wave, even if current valuations do not hold up, over the longer term.

LivingSocial Raises $400 Million To Fuel Expansion - WSJ.com:

Tests inaccurate, Sprint says

It's own tests do not confirm recent tests suggesting its 4G network isn't so fast.

http://www.google.com/reader/i/?source=mog&gl=us#stream/user%2F05579064408535224496%2Fstate%2Fcom.google%2Freading-list

Gmail Ads Get "More Targeted"

Google plans changes to the way it inserts ads in Gmail user messages, and should result in fewer ads being shown, use of Gmail’s importance ranking applied to ads and a new emphasis or availability on offers and coupons for Gmail recipients in their local area.

Sprint Plans 2011 Launch of Mobile Payments

Sprint Nextel Corp. plans to launch its own mobile payments system using near field communications in 2011, beating Isis, the consortium of AT&T, Verizon Wireless and T-Mobile USA by possibly six months or more, Bloomberg reports.

Perhaps significantly, Sprint is evaluating a business model that would not take a percentage of each transaction, as Isis plans. Instead, Sprint might decide to focus on marketing services and advertising, perhaps taking a share in revenue from sales of coupons sent to its customers’ handsets or targeted advertising.

It appears Sprint has decided to partner with credit card and debit card issuers for handling the money transfer parts of the service.

Sprint Plans Tap-And-Go Payment Service in 2011, Ahead of Rivals - Bloomberg

Google Bids on Nortel Patent Portfolio

Google is bidding to acquire Nortel's patent portfolio, in a move that tells you quite a lot about the state of patent litigation in the technology space these days.

"One of a company’s best defenses against patent litigation is to have a formidable patent portfolio, Google says.

So Google has decided to bid for Nortel’s patent portfolio in the company’s bankruptcy auction. Nortel further has selected the Google bid as the “stalking-horse bid," which is the starting point against which others will bid prior to the auction.

"If successful, we hope this portfolio will not only create a disincentive for others to sue Google, but also help us, our partners and the open source community—which is integrally involved in projects like Android and Chrome—continue to innovate," Google says on its blog.

Official Google Blog

Vodafone exits France, takes control in India

Vodafone has announced two major deals, offloading its stake in its French SFR, the second-largest French telecom provider, and taking full control of its Indian operator.

This continues the giant's strategy of streamlining its international holdings, divesting minority stakes and seeking full ownership of ventures where it takes the lead.

That doesn't provide much guidance or clarity about what Vodafone might ultimately want to do about its stake in Verizon Wireless. Some think it might divest, others think it might prefer a full merger with all of Verizon. Either step seems possible, based on what Vodafone already has done.

Vodafone exits France, takes control in India - Rethink Wireless

EMC Cloud Backup Service Arrives On iPad, iPhone

In one sense, the ability to use cloud-based applications as easily on a smartphone or tablet as on a PC is not that big a deal. Most observers would agree that the movement of apps to mobile devices is on-going and likely an irresistible trend.

Mozy, a cloud-based storage service, now allows mobile apps to run as native applications on smart phones and tablets. Consumer subscribers to the storage service are able to access all their files independently in their "MozyHome" storage holders. For example, users can view documents and open them in other applications, such as a browser.

On another level, though, the app might be the precursor of something much more strategic. First, the move to cloud-based apps accessible on any common computing device means that the user interface and the installation process should be dramatically simpler than before. Installation now means "download from app store" and the user interface is a simple web browser app.

That could ultimately have huge implications for the entire value chain and ecosystem that sells and supports business applications, software and services.

Consider just one implication: the smart phone "brings its own broadband." We are used to the idea that apps can be used over any standard broadband connection. With growing use of tablets and smart phones, business users already might be supplying their own broadband. That isn't to say businesses have less need to buy fixed location broadband; simply to note that a large category of "broadband access" services already have been "sold."

As with many other types of business applications, services and appliances, the "pitch" increasingly is a "replace what you already have" decision, not a "buy something new" decision. Also, mobile "broadband" is a secondary feature of the primary product, which is the smart phone and the apps it supports.

Likely more important is a shift of selling and provisioning context. In the future, buying a business app might be nearly as simple as going to a web store and downloading an app. Some way to simplify uploading of enterprise data also will be required in some cases, of course.

EMC Cloud Backup Service Arrives On iPad, iPhone | eWEEK Europe UK

AT&T Buying T-Mobile Won’t Matter, Says Pinger

The AT&T acquisition of T-Mobile USA won't make a dent in either innovation, competition or consumer welfare, because wireless innovation now lies in all the applications now available "over the top," says Pinger co-founder Joe Sipher.

For instance, my company, Pinger, now moves over a billion text messages every month and millions of minutes of voice calls. And we are only a fraction the size of Skype. There are many more companies like ours out there too. Increasingly, users pay nothing for calls because these new over-the-top services apply internet monetization methodologies to communication services. Advertising based communication services mean no contracts, no calling plans, no overage fees.

AT&T Buying T-Mobile Won’t Matter. In Mobile Communications, Innovation Is Elsewhere