T-Mobile and Verizon Might Get Slammed Today

According to an unscientific poll of people in line in New York to get their hands on an iPhone, 40 percent currently are at&t subscribers. That means 60 percent of the buyers will be switching carriers to join at&t. It appears T-Mobile is the largest loser, but Verizon stands to lose nearly as much. About 25 percent of the people in line are T-Mobile customers, just about 23 percent Verizon Wireless. Sprint users number about 10 percent, according to CNBC. One wonders what sort of win-back offers are ready to roll. And, in this case, whether anybody would even consider a win-back offer.

Why Do People Text Each Other?

In many markets, the cost of doing so is far less than the cost of making a voice call, says LirneAsia. And it is the relative cost of SMS compared to a minute of voice, for example, which drives texting, more than the absolute cost of sending an SMS (See Brough Turner's blog).

"What matters really is the relative cost of sending an SMS; for instance, in the Philippines, for a Smart TnT prepaid mobile user, a one minute call is about 5.5 times more expensive. In Pakistan, for a Jazz Budget prepaid mobile user, the ratio is about 2.1. In India, where SMS use at the BOP was seen to be the lowest (among the countries studied), the ratio was 1 – i.e, a one minute call and an SMS are the same price (so why would you bother SMSing if that were the case?)."

Microsoft OCS: Not Everyone Will Rest Easy...

...despite repeated assurances from Microsoft that it just wants to supply unified communications and presense features to any existing business phone system. Microsoft unified communications manager Mark Deakin says Office Communications Server 2007 is not a replacement for current PBX services. And he's right, as far as it goes. It's just that some observers say they have tested OCS as a full replacement for a PBX and it seems to do the job. And now that Microsoft is supplying U.C. software, desktop software and actual phones.......

It doesn't get any easier than this...

MINO Wireless has done one heck of a job in the user interface area. MINO provides a downloaded application running on BlackBerries that routes international calls on MINO's network rather than the mobile provider's network. If you make international calls on your mobile, you know what that tends to cost. As a rule, applications requiring a client download don't do as well as apps that don't require a download. I'd have to say this was the smoothest download I've ever encountered for my BlackBerry. The client is pushed out without user involvement and then installs with about two clicks, as I recall. I'd say it was as painless as anything I've encountered yet. The "use MINO" prompt appears whenever I open the directory to make a call, and offers two options: bill the enterprise account or use my personal account. That's it.

I earlier had downloaded and installed another application that provides the same functionality. But I'd have to say the user interface was much more opaque. Confusing, in fact. That application hasn't been used (which is why I once or twice have gotten emails reminding me that I can use the app). User interface is REALLY important. MINO Wireless has done a great job.

Making Sense of Mid-Band Ethernet

For the last couple of years we all have been hearing lots about mid-band Ethernet (2 Mbps up to possibly 24 Mbps, with the arguable sweet spot between 2 and 6 Mbps). Suppliers have made special note of the cellular network backhaul opportunity and that frankly has puzzled me a bit, since that particular market segment isn't bigger than the broader metro Ethernet market including enterprises, small and mid-sized businesses and organizations. But Hatteras Network VP Gary Bolton has an answer for that.

The backhaul segment isn't bigger than the others, but it is more urgent for mobile providers as well as the transport providers who provide service with service level agreements, Bolton says. On the mobile side, 3G networks immediately create new bandwidth needs that T1 links aren't well equipped to handle. That's pretty immediate.

Then there are the service providers who sell mobile tower sites connectivity services. And there's urgency there as well. If a circuit goes down, all the timing information at the affected tower can be lost, and then there is the resync time. Mobile carriers hate that.

That typically results in a financial penalty on the transport provider. So the tower backhaul opportunity gets so much attention because both mobile and wireline network providers need a solution right now.

Enterprise software buying influences changing...

Enterprise buying influences are changing, and it is the "line of business" decision makers who are more influential now, says Kneko Burney, Compass Intelligence president. "New purchases generally come at the request of the LOB dimension," she says. In fact, this is where "the money really sits." So don't wait for IT to recommend a solution. Software providers have to create demand by the line of business units.

The other thing is that end users are getting more influential as well, she says. The "voice of the end user gets louder each year and is a force of influence that could be better leveraged in marketing strategies," says Burney. End users don't care about price or platform. They do care about ease of use and "coolness."

And what about IT executives? Burney says they primarily are reactive rather than proactive. So don't bother telling them about the strategic advantages. They need to solve problems at a very tactical level.

Microsoft OCS Launch

The name “Microsoft” is not top of mind whenever one thinks of suppliers of enterprise phone systems. But Microsoft hopes that will change in a big way. Microsoft unveiled its own IP phones in May, and is preparing for a major launch of Office Communications Server, the latest revision to Live Communications Server.

Not be alarmist, but “road kill” comes to mind as one surveys the existing line up of providers of business phone systems. Heck, it has to. As Cisco before it came essentially out of nowhere to claim a lead position in the enterprise phone systems market, so now Microsoft is about to make its move as well.

To be sure, Microsoft is “playing nice” for the next two years, designing its new line of phones to work with existing private branch exchanges. Inevitably, Microsoft will go further. That is what Office Communications Server 2007 and Office Communicator 2007 are about, after all: the full integration of desktop and other enterprise apps with unified messaging and communications in a Microsoft framework, as the Wainhouse Research illustration shows.

“Microsoft’s plan is a 10 to 15 year view of the market, which is only starting to be visible today,” says Alec Saunders, Iotum CEO and former Windows CE executive. “Taken in totality, it’s a plan to dominate every aspect of enterprise communications, with the exception, perhaps, of the carrier network.” And even there, Microsoft would like to have its software embedded.

As Saunders puts it, every provider in the enterprise voice space now has to have an answer for OCS; some strategy for surviving Microsoft's charge.