Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Both 40 and 100 Gbps Ethernet, It Appears

It appears the IEEE is going to proceed with 40 Gbps and 100 Gbps Ethernet standards. Which strongly suggests there also someday will be a 120 Gbps standard, since it maps nicely with the 40 Gbps standard server vendors prefer for short distance connections between switches and servers.

The next logical step for the 100 Gbps suppliers, which tend to favor that standard for long haul and wide area network transport, isn't so clear. Following the 1, 10, 100 paradigm would suggest 1,000 Gbps, but nobody is talking about that right now. Bandwidth in the 400 Gbps up to 500 Gbps range is the sort of "next step."

Tuesday, July 24, 2007

Growth By Acquisition Works for at&t


Growth by acquisition clearly has been working for at&t, which is probably why executives there will stay on course with the strategy. The company reported a whopping 61 percent increase in second-quarter profit after $140 billion in acquisitions almost doubled revenue. This is an old strategy many competitive local exchange carriers attempted in the early 2000s, largely without success. Of course, CLECs had different problems. Investors were pushing them to grow fast, and organic growth obviously wasn't going to work. There also were more providers than customers (that's a bit of an exaggeration, but not much of one).

It remains to be seen how well the contrasting Verizon and at&t strategies work out. Verizon essentially is betting its future on the superiority of its wired assets, while not neglecting its wireless assets. at&t arguably is investing in acquisitions that lean in the direction of wireless while economizing on its wireless upgrades.

Growth By Acquisition Works for at&t

Growth by acquisition clearly has been working for at&t, which is probably why executives there will stay on course with the strategy. The company reported a whopping 61 percent increase in second-quarter profit after $140 billion in acquisitions almost doubled revenue. This is an old strategy many competitive local exchange carriers attempted in the early 2000s, largely without success. Of course, CLECs had different problems. Investors were pushing them to grow fast, and organic growth obviously wasn't going to work. There also were more providers than customers (that's a bit of an exaggeration, but not much of one).

Amp'd Customers Were a Collections Nightmare


Amp'd customers were heavy data consumers. Unfortunately, they also tended not to pay their bills. Amp'd apparently experienced an unprecedented growth of subscribers between November 2006, and February 2007 after running ads on MTV about the wireless phone company's lineup of mobile music and video content.

"Approximately 90 percent of the debtor's customers were on 18-month service contracts," according to Amp'd. By May this year, the number of nonpaying customers reached 80,000. That's nearly half of Amp'd's current customer base of 175,000 subscribers.

The filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Delaware, which says the company owes more than $100 million to creditors, including Verizon Wireless. Since Verizon is one of the largest creditors, it might make sense for Verizon to salvage something out of the mess, and acquire the 50 percent of customers who actually do pay their bills, and exhibit behavior Verizon wants to encourage.

Monday, July 23, 2007

Allo Goes Dark


Allo.com, a small independent VoIP provider based in British Columbia, went live in February. It apparently now is going dark. Five months.

One Reason why Skype is Not Growing So Fast


Jaxtr allows free international calls using mobile phones. Jaxtr says its membership has doubled to 500,000 users in the past month, and is signing up new users on the Web at a rate of more than 12,000 a day.

And then there are Jajah, Jangl, Rebtel and GrandCentral as well.

"No download is required, and our direct numbers can be dialed from any type of mobile phone or even ordinary landline phones," Jaxtr CEO Executive Konstantin Guericke said, contrasting its Web-based approach to certain complexities of other services.

SME VoIP: 30 Percent Annual Growth


IP Lines being installed into small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) will grow 30 percent a year over the next five years, according to the Dell'Oro Group. IP lines will grow from slightly less than 20 percent of lines shipments into SME locations in 2006 to almost 60 percent in 2011.

In contrast, digital and analog line shipments will decline at an average of 10 percent a year through 2011. Traditional systems will fair even worse, declining to less that 5 percent of the total market by 2011, Dell'Oro says.

This might be the least controversial forecast it is possible to make. Once analog-to-digital transitions really get going, it is hard to buy the older technology even if one really wants it.

DIY and Licensed GenAI Patterns Will Continue

As always with software, firms are going to opt for a mix of "do it yourself" owned technology and licensed third party offerings....