at&t to Launch VoIP Bundled with fiber

By the end of the year, at&t U-verse customers will be able to buy voice services running over the fiber-to-neighborhood service, instead of running a separate circuit-switched voice network to customer locations. The move signals that at&t is completely comfortable with the ruggedness and dependability of its VoIP offering, and is moving towards IP-based voice that can be interwoven with other services at&t plans to offer.

The move also is an early harbinger of a time when VoIP widely will be used as a standard replacement for landline voice, much as cable companies now use VoIP to deliver "digital voice" services that are feature equivalent with plain old telephone service but use IP technology.

The new VoIP offerng also will not be based on the CallVantage platform, because CallVantage "doesn't scale," at&t executives say.

The new VoIP product will be available in markets where at&t delivers U-verse TV.
at&t says its upgraded network will reach about eight million homes by the end of this year. The company intends to pass 18 million homes by the end of 2008.

Apparently at&t plans to move slowly offering VoIP services that run over Digital Subscriber Line, though.

From at&t's standpoint, that makes sense. Having watched IP, flat rate plans, competition, mobility, family plans and other forces wipe out much of the profit in long distance, VoIP stands poised to attack voice-based local access revenues as well. at&t will move, when it has to. But it is hard to fault them for not wanting to hasten the revenue decline from that product line.

Nokia Navteq: a Service Provider?

Nokia is acquiring Navteq, a leading provider of digital map information for navigation systems and devices, Internet-based mapping applications, and government and business solutions. Navteq also owns Traffic.com, a Web service that provides traffic information and content to consumers. Navteq had 2006 revenues of $582 million and has approximately 3,000 employees located in 168 offices in 30 countries. Nokia is paying $8.1 billion.

By acquiring Navteq, Nokia will strengthen its location-based services and take a step away form being a device manufacturer and becoming an applications provider, at least in part. And why not? More and more of the value of any product are provided by the services wrapped around the device.

Nokia says it plans to use location capabilities to expand into areas such as entertainment and communities. In Japan, location services already are a fairly significantly used feature.

Time Warner Launches Business TV

Time Warner Cable Business Class has launched BusinessLink.tv, an IPTV service that delivers real-time, high-speed broadcast TV video service directly to the computers of its business customers in select New York and New Jersey markets.

The BusinessLink.tv service delivers high-quality news and information video programming to clients via cable modem across their enterprise LAN using IP multicast connectivity. It is, in other words, bandwidth efficient.

The television networks included in the BusinessLink.tv New York City offering are: NY1 News, CNN, CNN Headline News, CNN International, CNBC, CNBC World, Bloomberg TV, Fox News, Fox Business News, and The Weather Channel. This 10-channel IPTV delivery service requires a 4 Mbps core local area network bandwidth.

And you thought people were wasting time using Facebook! Just kidding. I do the same thing in sneakernet fashion, having one of the news channels up all day in the background while working. It is quite helpful. Of course, I'm in the news and analysis business, so it is simply another form of "scanning" the environment. I would not give it up.

Open Source or Proprietary? Even Split

When functionality is equivalent, IT security professionals have an almost equal preference for deploying open source software (53 percent) as commercial software (47 percent), according to a recent survey of 228 security professionals by Barracuda Networks.

In the survey, 80 percent of respondents cited pricing as the top reason for adopting open source software over commercial software, while 57 percent selected access to source code and 41 percent chose community code review as the primary reasons for open source preference.

On the other hand, the survey found that the top reason for deploying commercial software was vendor professional services, at 65 percent, while 47 percent of respondents named ease of adoption in their organization and 47 percent said automated updates were key.

Better bug fixes are one open source advantage. So is access to the source code. Proprietary software, on the other hand, benefits from the perception that it will be easier to deploy and support over time. We can argue about how long that will continue to be true. There isn't much doubt that open source also is becoming part of the larger fabric of software offered by suppliers who historically have offered proprietary solutions.

All of which suggests that open source simply has become another tool to use, when it works and when it fits.

BT Gets Jabber

Jabber, Inc. BT Group has selected the Jabber Extensible Communications Platform (Jabber XCP™) to provide instant messaging for BT's 21st Century Network (21CN) program. Jabber will license software to BT for consumer, government, and enterprise users worldwide. In addition, the engagement between BT and Jabber includes consulting and development services which will fully integrate the Jabber XCP platform into BT’s common capabilities network.

Integrating Jabber XCP will allow BT to extend messaging across applications and services, providing BT customers with a centralized view of message routing, one-to-one IM, group chat, offline messages, message history, file transfer, and interoperability with other messaging systems such as Yahoo!, MSN, Google, and AOL.

The 21CN program, BT Group’s ongoing network transformation project, will replace the United Kingdom’s incumbent Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) with an Internet Protocol (IP) system while facilitating additional services such as on-demand interactive television, mobile television, and mobile radio.

Skype Valued at $1.7 Billion

Skype is worth $1.7 billion, based on charges EBay has taken both for the Skype acquisition and payments to outgoing CEO Niklas Zennstrom, who has left EBay.

Since the second quarter, EBay CEO Meg Whitman has made clear its concern that Skype is not delivering financial results on the scale EBay had expected.

At the time of the acquisition, eBay and analysts trumpeted the move as a way to increase higher end auction sales by making it simple to connect buyers and sellers by voice. So far, it appears the synergies haven't materialized in any significant way.

Skype also has more competition these days from alternate providers offering calling from mobile handsets and standard analog telephones that provide a reasonable alternative for some applications.

PC-based calling remains the Skype mainstay, despite the availability of Skype-compliant phones, as probably had to be expected. There's nothing wrong with that. But the consumer electronics industry has proven the difficulty of getting mass adoption of specialized appliances of all sorts.

Then again, unified communications and messaging now have the attention in the business space, while video and audio get the attention in the consumer space. VoIP also is a victim of its own success. Now that it has become a mainstream product, it is, well, just a product.

Also, beyond obvious cost savings in the enterprise, small, medium business and consumer spaces, it might be hard to argue that VoIP has had the impact of text messaging, instant messaging, simultaneous ring, visual voice mail or "presence." True, some of those features are enabled by or enriched by VoIP, but the value is harder to convey in a marketing message, at least in the North American market.

We seem to have moved beyond the simple "cheap calling" stage and into a much more complex "new capability" stage in some sense. But that's a harder, more complex sell with a longer adoption cycle.

On the other hand, the market for IP-based replacement of voice lines is quite large, in comparison.

In its most recent quarter, Skype booked $90 million in revenue. Assume Skype does not worse than that for a whole year, generating $360 million in revenue. Attributing just $20 a month in revenue for U.S. digital voice accounts, and assuming just four million U.S. subs, the U.S. cable industry is earning $960 million a year selling VoIP services.

Even beleaguered Vonage, at its present pace, will book revenue of $784 million over a year.

Time Warner Fires Opening Salvo

Though Comcast won't start firing its guns until early 2008, the U.S. cable industry has begun its assault on small business customer accounts. Time Warner Cable has rolled out a phone service for small and medium-size businesses in Central Ohio.

Time Warner introduced its Business Class phone service in the Columbus area Sept. 21.

A Time Warner analysis estimated there is a $40 billion market for business phone service in the company's eight-state service area, $9 billion of which is made up of small and mid-size companies, according to Ted Stine, Time Warner VP.

Time Warner first is targeting its existing business customers in the region who already subscribe to the company's Internet and cable video services. Companies that sign up for phone service will then get a discount on all their services. Once it has saturated that segment, Time Warner obviously will start cold calling prospects who have not existing business relationship with the company.

The biggest share shift should occur in the small business segment (four and five access lines, especially), though most observers would define the segment as "four to eight lines."