Google Dominates Search Even More This Year

Google accounted for 65.10 percent of all U.S. searches in the four weeks ending December 1, 2007, according to Hitwise. Yahoo! Search, MSN Search and Ask.com each received 21.21, 7.09 and 4.63 percent respectively. The remaining 46 search engines in the Hitwise Search Engine Analysis Tool accounted for 1.96 percent of U.S. searches.

As you might expect, search engines also continue to be the primary way Internet users navigate to key industry categories. Comparing November 2007 to November 2006, the travel, entertainment and business and finance categories showed double digit increases in their share of traffic coming directly from search engines.

at&t Forecasts Strong 2008 Growth

In a forecast that, in some ways, resembles France Telecom's, at&t executives now say the company will achieve double-digit adjusted earnings growth in 2008. Where the forecast resembles France Telecom's projections is the full-year wireline segment, where at&t forecasts 2008 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in line with 2007. France Telecom executives recently projected 2008 cash flow consistent with 2007.

at&t also expects 2008 wireless EBITDA in the low 40-percent range.

For its U-Verse Internet-based TV project, at&t said it expects to reach more than one million subscribers by the end of 2008.

Longer term, at&t expects adjusted earnings growth in the double-digits and mid-single-digit or better revenue growth. That's another area where at&t and France Telecom have common views. Where 2008 might just keep pace with 2007, growth will accelerate after that.

Mobivox Hopes to Bridge Generation Gap

Younger people hooked on instant communications like SMS and IM communicate differently with their grandparents, a new survey by Mobivox finds. That there are clear generational differences in how we communicate with family and friends will come as no surprise to just about anybody.

Almost 60 percent of people under 35 say that they communicate differently with older, less tech savvy family members and friends. The reverse might also be true: parents sometimes communicate with their children using different modes than they do with peers.

But the gap probably is widest between teenagers and their grandparents 65 or older. Older users are two times as likely to say that technology "gives me a headache" (less than 10 percent of those over 65 use SMS or IM regularly and over half still use letters).

And the impact of these barriers on relationships is felt across generations, says Mobivox. One in three Americans, regardless of age, say that they don't connect as often as they would like with those they love because they don't use the same communications technology.

The poll also reveals that 60 percent of those under age 35 said that family and friends call them for help with their technology woes.

Mobivox has launched GiftVOX to lessen some of those woes.

GiftVOX lets every family's "go-to technologist" set up free international calling for family members. All the recipient has to do is call their local Mobivox access number and, during that first call, opt-in to activate their account.

GiftVOX eliminates the need to ever go online, program a contact list or learn to use a new gadget, Mobivox says.

What's interesting here is the pre-programming of accounts on behalf of other family or social group members who might not be motivated to do so themselves (I have encountered this problem myself, trying to set up a family calling group).

The new program is about as simple as it could possibly be. Group members don't need a computer, a credit card or even a calling card number. All they need is a mobile or landline phone.

Because Mobivox allows members to connect from any phone, it is especially easy for older generations to use since eight in 10 of those over 65 rely on home landline phones to communicate, compared to 50 percent using mobile phones and only one in three on email, Mobivox says.

24% of Landline Users Would Consider Abandoning Landline Service

As many as 24 percent of landline users would consider abandoning those lines in favor of mobile-only service, a survey by In-Stat sugggests. And some think that forecast is too conservative. Citigroup analyst Michael Rollins argues that by 2010, wireless-only households should rise to 27 percent, up from 13 percent last year and an estimated 17 percent this year.

In fact, the cord-cutting trend seen among younger U.S. wireless users might be hidden to a certain extent, as many teenagers may now be quite comfortable with the idea of using a mobile as the voice appliance, and simply haven't yet had a chance to make their preferences known in the broader market.

To be sure, the typical cord cutter is under 35 years old with a small household and a lower income than the traditional phone user, In-Stat says.

“The largest number of current cord cutters—those who do not have a landline, but rely solely on their mobile phone—are those one might expect: young, single, living alone, or sharing quarters such as a dormitory or rooming house,” says Jill Meyers, In-Stat analyst. “In many cases, these are people who are the least-likely candidates to have a landline phone.”

To nobody's surprise, current cord cutters, who have no landline service, use 22 percent more mobile minutes than the average user, and 40 percent more mobile minutes than those not interested in surrendering their landline.

As you also might suspect, potential cord cutters frequently are on family or group mobile rate plans. That is to say, they are teenagers or college-age adults whose bills are paid by other family members. They also are users who simply are accustomed to communicating using a mobile device rather than a "home phone."

Potential cord cutters also are heavy users, since nearly all their calling and texting is concentrated on a personal mobile device. Their spending averages $111.41 a month. Most estimates peg cord cutters at about five to eight percent of users. Analysts at the Yankee Group think the trend will keep growing, and reach 15 percent in several years.

As a parent with three young adults on a such a plan, I can attest that per-capita spending is much higher than for the parents also on shared plans. Way higher, and in line with the In-Stat findings.

More SOA-Based Voice, Text from BlueNote Networks

BlueNote Networks has launched a pair of new application program interfaces for its SessionSuite communications platform. The new APIs for BlueNote's SessionSuite SOA Edition, which allows developers to embed voice within SOA applications running on IP networks, make it possible to add outbound notification and interactive response to business applications.

For example, the ON-SF allows users to add account activity notification or stock alerts, prescription renewal notifications, flight delay or cancellation notifications within the framework of existing business applications.

The ON-SF goes beyond voice notifications to reach intended message recipients through multiple channels. It enables not only voice notifications, but e-mail and text message notifications as well.

The announcement provides more evidence that communications are being embedded within the context of Web and enterprise applications.

Good Reason to Buy a Wi-Fi-Equipped Smart Phone

On Dec. 11, JetBlue Airways Corp. will begin a trial of free in-flight e-mail and messaging using in-cabin Wi-Fi. If passengers respond positively, the airline said it could install the service across its entire fleet, according to Citigroup analyst Jim Suva.

The in-flight Wi-Fi service will be welcomed by many notebook PC users and owners of Wi-Fi-equipped BlackBerrys or iPhones, since some people travel with a BlackBerry, iPhone or some other smart phone and leave their notebooks at home. That's not me, but other people do it. The relevant BlackBerry devices include the 8210, 8820 and 8320 Curve. You are out of luck if you have service from at&t, though, as at&t blocks Wi-Fi usage on its Curve. T-Mobile supports Wi-Fi on the Curve.

Of course, there apparently is just one single aircraft involved in the JetBlue test. But if it proves popular, and one suspects it will, we can hope other carriers eventually will move to equip their cabins for Wi-Fi.

Of course, the danger is that people will start using VoIP over Wi-Fi, even if cabins aren't equipped for mobile phone use, an idea that many of us absolutely detest. As annoying as mobile phone etiquette now is, it will be unbearable when you can't escape the audio pollution created by your seat mates.

International Long Distance: Merger Wave Coming

Look for a wave of mergers and outsourcing in the international long distance business in 2008. The issue is that voice traffic growth is slowing sharply after decades of rapid growth. That means more volume is needed to keep a business cash flow positive or profitable. Not every global carrier will be able to attain that level of scale, so executives are going to have to consider buying wholesale capacity and abandoning operation of their own networks.

That, of course, is a business opportunity for wholesalers with the ability to handle a large amount of additional traffic.

International voice traffic grew approximately 15 percent annually, from less than 18 billion minutes in 1986 to just under 300 billion in 2006. But international calls grew only 10 percent in 2006, and signs point to continued sluggish growth in 2007.

Skype and other computer-based voice services are a key reason for the slowdown. "Skype only accounts for a small share of international calls, but the volume was enough to cut global growth in half," says TeleGeography analyst Stephan Beckert.