Mobile, Landline Have Switched Roles

Since 2002, U.S. consumers have dramatically changed their perceptions of the value of mobile and fixed voice services, according to a new survey by the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

In 2002, 63 percent of respondents said it would be hard to give up their landline telephone. In 2007, just 40 percent say that would be hard.

In 2002, 38 percent of respondents said it would be hard to give up their mobile phones. In 2007, 51 percent said it would be hard to give up their mobiles.

In other findings, a greater percentage now say it would be hard to give up their Internet access. Where 38 percent thought so in 2002, in the latest survey 45 percent said it would be tough to give up.

Fewer people are as attached to their TV services as they were in 2002. But lots more people now expect to have mobile email service. Just six percent in 2002 said it would be hard to give up their BlackBerry or similar device. Now 36 percent say they would find it hard.

Trouble at Clearwire?

Clearwire generated $45.4 million in service revenues in its most recent quarter, a 91 percent growth rate year over year. Not bad. But it is the guidance for 2008 that is troublesome.IT expects a 29 percent to 35 percent subscriber growth to end 2008 with 510,000 to 530,000 subscribers.

Growth businesses aren't supposed to slow that much, so early into their growth trajectory. Average revenue per user doesn't seem to be headed in the right direction, either. ARPU in the fourth quarter was just over $36.00, slightly below the year-ago quarter.

Disney Launches Mobile Service in Japan

Disney's new mobile phone service in Japan, based on use of Softbank Corp.'s mobile network, will be Disney's third attempt to define a new content-heavy or otherwise segmented approach to the mobile market.After experimenting with sports content and service for kids, it now is targeting Japanese women in theirDisney's new mobile phone service in Japan, based on use of Softbank Corp.'s mobile network, will be Disney's third attempt to define a new content-heavy or otherwise segmented approach to the mobile market.After experimenting with sports content and service for kids, it now is targeting Japanese women in their 20s and 30s.

The reeason? The company reasons that since females older than 20 represent 75 percent of the 3.5 million subscribers to Disney's myriad Japanese mobile websites, Disney Mobile can use designer handsets and that content interest to drive adoption.

The new service launches with three phones, each programmed to speed access to Disney websites. Users also can personalize their screens and emails with Disney characters.

You have to appreciate Disney's willingness to experiment. It launched two segmented wireless services in the U.S. market, Mobile ESPN, based at male sports nuts, and Mobile Disney, used by children but aimed at worried parents. Neither got traction. Other retail providers arguably should hope the latest attempt will fail as well.

The reason is that if a content brand can carve out a new space for itself in mobile, with a slightly-different business model (driving traffic to content Web sites, supported by advertising or commerce, for example), it attacks the subscription-based traditional model.

Just as important, it would represent a further shift in value towards independent brands in the communications space, much as Apple as emerged as a mobile brand in its own right, and as Google hopes to. Some will argue that Disney has learned nothing from two earlier unsuccessful efforts. Others will say the Japanese market is sufficiently different that it is a reasonable bet.

It's an experiment of the sort IP Multimedia Subsystem is supposed to provide mobile operators: allow rapid new service trials to see what sticks. One has to appreciate Disney's willingness to keep experimenting, despite earlier lack of success.

Traditional prDisney's new mobile phone service in Japan, based on use of Softbank Corp.'s mobile network, will be Disney's third attempt to define a new content-heavy or otherwise segmented approach to the mobile market.After experimenting with sports content and service for kids, it now is targeting Japanese women in their 20s and 30s.

The reeason? The company reasons that since females older than 20 represent 75 percent of the 3.5 million subscribers to Disney's myriad Japanese mobile websites, Disney Mobile can use designer handsets and that content interest to drive adoption.

The new service launches with three phones, each programmed to speed access to Disney websites. Users also can personalize their screens and emails with Disney characters.

You have to appreciate Disney's willingness to experiment. It launched two segmented wireless services in the U.S. market, Mobile ESPN, based at male sports nuts, and Mobile Disney, used by children but aimed at worried parents. Neither got traction. Other retail providers arguably should hope the latest attempt will fail as well.

The reason is that if a content brand can carve out a new space for itself in mobile, with a slightly-different business model (driving traffic to content Web sites, supported by advertising or commerce, for example), it attacks the subscription-based traditional model.

Just as important, it would represent a further shift in value towards independent brands in the communications space, much as Apple as emerged as a mobile brand in its own right, and as Google hopes to. Some will argue that Disney has learned nothing from two earlier unsuccessful efforts. Others will say the Japanese market is sufficiently different that it is a reasonable bet.

It's an experiment of the sort IP Multimedia Subsystem is supposed to provide mobile operators: allow rapid new service trials to see what sticks. One has to appreciate Disney's willingness to keep experimenting, despite earlier lack of success.

Traditional providers will be watching as well, for signs a further shift in value towards "applications," and away from "access," might be possible. On the other hand, naysayers will say the communications business has only so much room for content-centric approaches. At the end of the day, they argue, the quality of services, measured in terms of dropped calls performance, audio quality, access speed and so forth, plus service attributes, are far more important to the typical mobile user than "content" features.

So far, the naysayers have been largely correct. The issue is who, and where, this might not prove to be such an iron-clad rule. Disney hopes to find out.oviders will be watching as well, for signs a further shift in value towards "applications," and away from "access," might be possible. On the other hand, naysayers will say the communications business has only so much room for content-centric approaches. At the end of the day, they argue, the quality of services, measured in terms of dropped calls performance, audio quality, access speed and so forth, plus service attributes, are far more important to the typical mobile user than "content" features.

So far, the naysayers have been largely correct. The issue is who, and where, this might not prove to be such an iron-clad rule. Disney hopes to find out. 20s and 30s.

The reeason? The company reasons that since females older than 20 represent 75 percent of the 3.5 million subscribers to Disney's myriad Japanese mobile websites, Disney Mobile can use designer handsets and that content interest to drive adoption.

The new service launches with three phones, each programmed to speed access to Disney websites. Users also can personalize their screens and emails with Disney characters.

You have to appreciate Disney's willingness to experiment. It launched two segmented wireless services in the U.S. market, Mobile ESPN, based at male sports nuts, and Mobile Disney, used by children but aimed at worried parents. Neither got traction. Other retail providers arguably should hope the latest attempt will fail as well.

The reason is that if a content brand can carve out a new space for itself in mobile, with a slightly-different business model (driving traffic to content Web sites, supported by advertising or commerce, for example), it attacks the subscription-based traditional model.

Just as important, it would represent a further shift in value towards independent brands in the communications space, much as Apple as emerged as a mobile brand in its own right, and as Google hopes to. Some will argue that Disney has learned nothing from two earlier unsuccessful efforts. Others will say the Japanese market is sufficiently different that it is a reasonable bet.

It's an experiment of the sort IP Multimedia Subsystem is supposed to provide mobile operators: allow rapid new service trials to see what sticks. One has to appreciate Disney's willingness to keep experimenting, despite earlier lack of success.

Traditional providers will be watching as well, for signs a further shift in value towards "applications," and away from "access," might be possible. On the other hand, naysayers will say the communications business has only so much room for content-centric approaches. At the end of the day, they argue, the quality of services, measured in terms of dropped calls performance, audio quality, access speed and so forth, plus service attributes, are far more important to the typical mobile user than "content" features.

So far, the naysayers have been largely correct. The issue is who, and where, this might not prove to be such an iron-clad rule. Disney hopes to find out.

Don't Worry about Blu-ray

There has been some speculation that the Sony victory in the high-definition digital video recorder war is somewhat "Pyhric", to the extent that content is moving to digital distribution, and away from physical media.

That might be premature,if a recent survey of U.K. consumers is any indication. The survey suggests Blu-ray DVRs will have the highest growth of any digital entertainment activity in 2008, according to Russell Hart, Chief Executive of Entertainment Media Research.

The survey asked about usage of 49 digital and entertainment activities. Around 24 percent of consumers surveyed reported they will start watching movies in the Blu-ray format in the next six months. "This is at least double the intention rate of any other entertainment activity," Hart says.

The other issue is that consumers are happy to watch on-demand programming as long as it is free. There's high interest in new movie releases (84 percent are interested and 48 percent say they are definitely interested.

Live music concerts are attractive to 72 percent of respondents. So is comedy, interesting to 79 percent of respondents.

When confronted with three options--subscription with unlimited content, PPV and free ad-supported models--the free model wins. About 70 percent of respondents would rather put up with the ads than pay for the content.

Still, 48 percent of respondents say they are "definitely interested" in new release movies and 53 percent are willing to pay to watch them.

Singapore Gets 10 Bidders for 100 Mbps Network

Singapore’s Infocomm Development Authority has pre-qualified ten bidders for a new optical access network that will be open to any retail providers who want to use it.

The proposed network would feature initial capacities of 100Mbps downstream and 50Mbps upstream, with the ability to upgrade to 1 Gbps.

Alcatel-Lucent Singapore, Axia NetMedia Corporation of Canada, BT Singapore, City
Telecom Hong Kong, NTT West, Nokia Siemens Networks Singapore, Singapore Computer Systems Limited, Singapore Telecommunications Limited, Singapore Power Telecommunications and StarHub are on the list.

Covad Dips Toe into Metro Wi-Fi

Covad Communications is trying a different approach to metro Wi-Fi services, targeting services at businesses rather than consumers to create a revenue base.

Covad will build a Wi-Fi test network in a square-mile business district in San Carlos, Calif., using an approach far more narrow than what a regional nonprofit and a consortium including Cisco Systems and IBM had once envisioned. Covad also will limit its downside by agreeing to operate the network for a period of three months.

An earlier proposal by the Silicon Valley Network and Silicon Valley Metro Connect didn't take off, and revenue was the chief culprit. Azulstar, the startup that was to build and operate the network, couldn't get funding for two test networks at about $500,000 each.

That was supposed to be the start of a project serving 1,500 square miles and about 40 cities.

Technology really isn't the issue. Covad wants to find out whether it can get enough small business users to anchor a larger or more permanent effort.

Covad’s wireless business unit already serves business customers in San Carlos, allowing Covad to overlay the Wi-Fi capability on top of its fixed wireless broadband service. Central to the test is discovery of whether a repeatable financial and operational model exists.

Following the completion of the test, Covad Wireless will explore expanding the mesh service to additional locations in the region.

Covad Wireless operates California’s largest fixed broadband wireless network serving businesses, and the company views the trial as a way to test a theory: that it can reach incremental new customers in the very-small and home office segments it so far has not focused on.

Up to this point, Covad Wireless has focused on business customers requiring a T1 or higher bandwidth. So the issue is whether a sustainable business case exists for users who may not need, or are not willing to pay for, nailed up T1 connections.

P2P Issue is Hairy

P2P users amount to only one percent of Comcast's users, but those users are consuming 50 percent of the company's bandwidth, according to George Ou, an editor at large at ZDNet and the former technical director at TechRepublic.

Some say the ultimate solution is "more bandwidth." The problem is, that doesn't really address P2P bandwidth consumption, which automatically will scale to devour the additional bandwidth as well, some point out.

The problem is figuring out whether or not P2P applications really do pose outsize network loads, and must therefore be managed to preserve quality of experience for the 99 percent of other users, or whether P2P constitutes a lawful application that shouldn't be subject to rate shaping.

It doesn't immediately appear clear that there is a single answer. Traffic shaping isn't blocking. And even outright blocking sometimes is socially desirable. Blocking of viruses and spam come to mind. But even voice networks are designed to block some traffic when peak loads occur. One has to re-dial. Traffic shaping is somewhat analogous to the means used to cope with voice congestion at peak hours.

And, unfortunately, "more bandwidth" isn't by itself a solution to P2P network loading, it wouldn't appear. At some point, market mechanisms will have to be applied. At some point, the business pricing model will be applied in the consumer space: you can use as much as you want; you just have to pay for the usage.