Friday, April 11, 2008

Dish Network Satellite Now Space Junk

The brand-new SES Americom AMC-14 satellite, which was to boost Dish Network's high-definition programming line-up, now is space junk. After a failed launch, SES Americom engineers have concluded there is no way to boost the satellite into proper orbit.

Between the launch of Sputnik on 4 October 1957 and 1 January 2008, approximately 4,600 launches have placed some 6000 satellites into orbit, of which about 400 are travelling beyond geostationary orbit or on interplanetary trajectories.

Today, it is estimated that only 800 satellites are operational. Roughly 45 percent of these are both in low earth orbit and geostationary orbit. Space debris comprise the ever-increasing amount of inactive space hardware in orbit around the Earth as well as fragments of spacecraft that have broken up, exploded or otherwise become abandoned. About 50 percent of all trackable objects are due to in-orbit explosion events (about 200) or collision events (less than 10).

More Interest in Downloads than Live Mobile TV?

Mobile TV might be more a "download" than a "streaming" or "broadcast" application, at least for the moment, says Nokia Internet services executive Niklas Savander, reported by Reuters news service..

"We have seen that there are multiple segments who are not interested in the broadcasting, but rather in downloads," Savander says.

That likely will change over time. But not until customers acquire a new habit and the variety of "live" video improves. Some people might want to watch local TV broadcasts, or a handful of popular "cable style" networks.

Sometimes the subscription model increases viewing appetite. Cable operators found that approach worked for some forms of video on demand. But right now, most people (except Sprint Simply Everything customers) probably would prefer an a la carte download or "episodic" use option.

There are use cases one can imagine. Users without digital video recorder access, or the ability to program DVRs remotely, or traveling users without a Slingbox in their luggage, might watch long-form material.

The key thing is that users respond to variety; they respond to content richness. And until "live" broadcasting services can offer really rich variety, usage is going to be relatively limited.

There are exceptions, of course. Viewership of news channels always goes way up in the case of extraordinary news events. At those times, people are going to want to watch on their mobiles, if it is available. But most of the ime, people probably think they can wait.

The preference for downloads might speak more to the issue of content access than anything else.

Services Bigger Part of "Equipment" Business

In the consumer electronics, small business technology or telecom infrastructure markets, services are becoming a more important part of the "product" being sold.

A case in point: Service providers paid $70 billion in service revenues in 2007 to providers of infrastrucure systems and products, according to Technology Business Research. That's an increase of abouteight percent over services spending in 2006.

Simply put, technology is sufficiently more complicated, and service providers are sufficiently less endowed with internal staff, that deployment, maintenance, consulting, integration and management services are essential.

The other trend is that suppliers are increasing their focus on services businesses to help insulate against slowing demand for hardware. Talk to Cisco channel partners if you doubt the trend. With margins and gross revenues for hardware slowing, services revenue picks up the slack.

At the same time, more traditional infomation technology specialists are taking advantage of the more software-intensive nature of network operations.

Qwest Outage

Qwest Communications experienced a widespread phone and Internet outage late in the afternoon of April 10 in the Denver area and other parts of Colorado.

Service was down for more than an hour in some locations, customers reported, though Qwest logged the outage starting at 4:04 p.m. and ending at 4:44 p.m. The outage took out some optical circuits that wireless carriers including Verizon Wireless and at&t wireless.

Data Card Sales Will Quadruple


Sales of mobile data cards, which enable broadband access in laptops via a service provider’s mobile data network, are forecast by Infonetics Research to nearly quadruple between 2007 and 2011, when they will reach $2.9 billion.

“Currently, mobile data services are generally too expensive for mass market adoption, but that will change with the increasingly extensive rollout of high speed HSDPA, the launch of new data plans offering increased download limits, and better subsidies for mobile data cards, says Richard Webb, Infonetics Research directing analyst.

As mobile data plans become more affordable, consumers will use mobile data cards to download Internet-based content such as MP3s, games and video clips to mobile devices. Users also will use data cards to transfer user-generated content such as photos, video clips to other users.

A small proportion of consumers will use a mobile data plan as their primary means of broadband access. Infonetics predicts worldwide mobile data subscribers will accelerate dramatically over the next few years, reaching 144 million users by 2011.

Windows Collapsing, Gartner Analysts Argue

Gartner analysts Michael Silver and Neil MacDonald say Microsoft’s Windows product is collapsing, a victim of slow adoption by enterprises, code bloat--there's so much code it cannot be changed quickly--and a radical shift to browser-based services.

The bad news for Microsoft is that it is the browser that increasingly matters most, not the PC operating system, the Gartner analysts argue.

TechCrunch editor says Vista could be perfect and it still wouldn’t matter. "Online advertising revenue is their only real hope of long term survival," he says.

If the Gartner views seem a bit radical, it is only because major computing shifts always seem radical. There was a time when the notion that teenagers would own their own computers would have seemed more than a little far fetched.

Still, one can question the time it might take for a new paradigm to take hold. So far, most users probably don't see the utility of accessing basic business productivity suites online rather than loading them locally. But that might not wind up being the "killer" app that drives cloud computing.

And as already is the case, cloud-based services might take hold where real-time and changing information and services are required or desired or where simple mass storage and backup are important.

Ask yourself how useful a PC is, when it doesn't have access to the Internet, or broadband access to the Internet. Yes, there are things you can do. But the point is that communications now is a primary requirement for a PC. Cloud computing is just an extension of that trend.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

More than 80% of Internet Users Download or Stream Video

The BBC’s video site, iPlayer, is fast becoming the place to tune in online. Since launching on Christmas Day, 17 million Internet users streamed or downloaded full-length programs—leaving rival ITV’s broadband TV offering far behind.

The same trend is occurring in the US. Surveys there show that consumers prefer to watch programming online that is produced by professional TV networks and film studios. eMarketer projects that 154 million people in the US will download or stream video content on the Internet at least once a month in 2008. This year, 80% of Internet users are expected to watch video, which accounts for 52.5% of the total population.

In fact, some U.K. Internet service providers think the iPlayer is generating so much traffic and cost for ISPs tha the BBC ought to have to pay the ISPs to carry the BBC content.

Net AI Sustainability Footprint Might be Lower, Even if Data Center Footprint is Higher

Nobody knows yet whether higher energy consumption to support artificial intelligence compute operations will ultimately be offset by lower ...