20 Mbps Services Get Traction in U.K.

Virgin Media's 20-Mbps U.K. broadband service seems to be seeing strong consumer interest. Over the last 12 months, Virgin Media has seen an 82 percent increase in the number of subscribers taking the 20 Mbps service, up to this point the fastest tier of service available, though Virgin Media now is adding a 50 Mbps service as well. About 9.3 percent of Virgin Media's broadband access subscribers buy the 20 Mbps service. Virgin Media also has found increasing numbers of customers upgrading from 2 Mbps to 10 Mbps levels of service.

Search Emerging as Internet's Second Killer App

The percentage of Internet users who use search engines on a typical day has been steadily rising from about one third of all users in 2002 to a new high of just under one half (49 percent), say researchers at the Pew Internet & American Life Project. To the extent that email has been the closest thing to an Internet killer app, search is emerging as the second.

The number of those using a search engine on a typical day is pulling ever closer to the 60 percent of Internet users who use email on a typical day. The percentage of internet users who search on a typical day grew 69 percent from January 2002 to May 2008.

During the same six-year time period, the use of email on a typical day rose from 52 percent to 60 percent, for a growth rate of just 15 percent.

3:1 Margin of Mobile to Fixed Lines Globally

There now are three times more mobile subscribers than access line subscribers worldwide in 2007 (3.3 billion vs. 1.1 billion), say researchers at Infonetics Research. The firm also expects continued strong growth in mobile subscribers, mainly driven by basic voice service needs in BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).

The number of mobile subscribers jumped 31 percent in 2007 over 2006, while access line subscribers declined five percent.

The number of worldwide mobile subscribers will reach 5.2 billion by 2011, Infonetics further suggest, while mobile broadband subscribers grow at a 104 percent compound annual growth rate from 2007 to 2011. At that point, there will be one cellular mobile broadband subscriber for every four wireline broadband subscribers.

Free Content Needed to Prime the Pump

Since consumers are not sold on mobile video services, mobile service providers should try offering users free content to prime demand, say researchers at Parks Associates.

While nearly one third of U.S. households have a video-capable mobile phone, operators are struggling to find an audience for their mobile video services, according to John Barrett, Parks Associates research director.

Most consumers with a video-capable mobile phone never have used the video features, Parks Associates finds. About 56 percent never have watched a video clip using a mobile phone, Barrett notes

“Buy before you try is always a tough sell,” says Barrett. "Many consumers are hesitant to pay for a new, unfamiliar service, but they will remain unfamiliar with the service until they or someone they know uses it.”

U.K. Broadband Saturating

In the U.K. market, as in the U.S. market, the number of likely new customers for broadband access services is dwindling. In the U.K., there now are about a million dial-up users left.

"The number of dial-up homes ripe for migration to broadband is rapidly dwindling, there are barely a million of them left now and they are an increasingly resistant minority," says Tim Johnson, Point Topic chief analyst.

There are about 16,735,000 broadband lines already in service, and it would be reasonable to expect a sharp deceleration in 2008. For the 12-month period from June 2006 to June 2007, nearly three million new subscribers were added. Between June 2007 and June 2008 about two million were added. With just about one million dial-up subscribers left to convert, it seems unlikely the gross additions will hit even a million between now and June 2009.

There are 9.6 million households without Internet access at all, but that includes homes with no PCs as well as homes with users who do not use the Internet. Point Topic estimates 58 pecent of U.K. households use broadband, about 4.5 percent use dial-up while 37 percent have no access.

Economic woes might be having some effect, but the primary issue is market saturation.

Netflix Users: 89% on "3 or fewer" Plans

Netflix has never given a breakdown on the number of subscribers in each type of rental plan, but using Feedflix, a site set up to allow Netflix users to track their usage of Netflix, some guesses can be made.

According to Netflix’s latest earnings report, they currently have 8.4 million subscribers. By extrapolating Feedflix’s breakdown of Netflix service plans to the larger subscriber base, we get the following estimates on where customers are spending their money, according to an investment advisor who goes by the pen name of Davis Freeberg.

1 at a time - 2.1 million subscribers
2 at a time - 2.4 million subscribers
3 at a time - 3.1 million subscribers
4 at a time - 500K subscribers
5 at a time - 168K subscribers
6 at a time - 84K subscribers

Since heavier users cost Netflix more (more postage, more DVD rentals, more handling), one would assume the profit is generated by the lighter users who rent less (less postage, fewer rentals, less handling cost).

VoIP 40% of French Market Traffic

VoIP now represents close to 30 percent of all telephone subscriptions in France, according to French regulatory authority ARCEP, and is growing by about one million subscriptions every quarter.

IP calls now represent 40.5 percent of traffic originating on fixed phones(compared with less than 27 percent a year earlier) and 59 percent of traffic for international calls. VoIP traffic now represents 42 percent of in-France calling and 18 percent of traffic to mobiles.

VoIP services are generally used more intensively (5 hours and 34 minutes) than “traditional” telephone service (3 hours and 16 minutes) per subscriber, per month in the first quarter of 2008.

Most fixed lines (66 percent) in service represent a single “traditional” telephone subscription on the PSTN, dropping by three percentage points each quarter. The reduction primarily is caused by customers substituting VoIP services.

Some 15 percent of lines in service at the end of the first quarter 2008 support both VoIP and legacy telecom.