Time Warner Cable first quarter results are in, and, so far, nothing unexpected seems to be happening, relative to financial or subscriber behavior attributable directly to the economy. Comcast reports tomorrow, so we should be in fairly good shape as far as analyzing whether reported or claimed consumer intent to drop video subscriptions, or even scale them back dramatically, is happening.
So far, with results in from Time Warner, AT&T and Verizon, we can note that, despite what people might say, or what observers might believe, the business remains quite stable. We'll have to wait for several other reports from major satellite and wireless providers to assess what is happening with wireless, and to flesh out the video numbers.
But, so far, nothing unusual can be seen. Share shifts continue. Consumers might be scaling back on premium services or discretionary purchases such as video on demand. All of that is typical for a recession. But there is so far no serious evidence of any significant shift in behavior, compared to past recessions, in the video or fixed broadband segments.
Wireless might be a different matter, as the two major providers one suspects will show market share pressure have not yet reported. The issue is whether total postpaid wireless subscriptions have declined. Some shift to prepaid is expected, which potentially could lower average revenue per user, if new data service revenue does not grow faster than the slippage to prepaid voice. So far, data revenue growth remains brisk, so ARPU has not fallen. In fact, it has grown at AT&T and Verizon Communications, the two major wireless companies to report so far.
Time Warner Cable revenues for the first quarter of 2009 increased five percent ($204 million) over the same quarter of 2008, to $4.4 billion. Subscription revenues grew six percent ($256 million) to $4.2 billion. Video revenues rose two percent ($64 million) to $2.7 billion, driven by video price increases and continued growth in digital video subscriptions partially offset by a year-over-year decrease in basic video subscribers and premium channel and transactional video-on-demand revenues.
High-speed data revenues increased 11 percent ($107 million) to $1.1 billion while voice revenues were up 23 percent ($85 million) to $451 million. Advertising revenues declined 26 percent ($52 million) to $145 million.
Customer relationships were 14.7 million as of March 31, 2009. Primary service units, which represent the total of all video, high-speed data and voice subscribers, reached 26 million with net additions of 435,000 during the first quarter of 2009.
Revenue generating units (“RGUs”) totaled 34.8 million – reflecting net additions of 556,000 during the first quarter of 2009.
Triple Play subscribers exceeded 3.2 million (or 22 percent of total customer relationships), benefiting from 146,000 net additions during the first quarter of 2009.
Video penetration now is at 48.7 percent while high-speed data penetration of the customer base now is at 33.5 percent. Phone penetration is at 15.1 percent of the customer base.
Some 55.2 percent of households buy a bundle of some sort. A third of households buy a triple-play package, while about 22.1 percent of those bundle buyers take a double play.
Perhaps the most shocking number for anybody who has followed the cable industry over the past couple of decades is customer penetration of homes passed. Time Warner Cable today sells a service to 54.5 percent of locations the network passes. But looking just at multi-channel video, Time Warner sells video services to just 48.7 percent of households passed, down sharply from the nearly-70-percent levels operators used to have in many markets.
Industrywide, cable penetration now is at 51 percent, according to the National Cable & Telecommunications Association.
There is little doubt but that satellite broadband providers will try to secure broadband stimulus funds to subsidize the cost of customer premises equipment, a move that Hughes Network Systems SVP Mike Cook believes could increase its subscriber base by an order of magnitude.
