Broadband Stimulus: Let the Bellyaching Begin!

Not a dime of broadband stimulus money has been awarded but the carping will begin in earnest once the first round of awards are made. That is almost inevitable, given the vastly greater number of potential "losers" compared to the actual award winners, the range of contestants already locked in fierce competition with each other and the predictable complaints that incumbents got too much of the money.

The Rural Utilities Service portion of the program arguably faces more challenges. The National Telecommunications & Information Administration likely will have an easier time since that is where many training, public computing center and other projects can legitimately be funded.

Almost by definition, rural broadband communications is capital intensive enough that if one is not already a service provider, becoming one would be prohibitively difficult. Beyond that, running a service provider business does require some organizational skills and capabilities even experienced entrepreneurs have found challenging.

If the nation learned nothing else from the massive expansion of investment in competitive service providers in the late 1990s, it is that most such ventures without continuing "high cost" support will fail.

One example of such "incumbent bias" is Viaero Wireless, a Fort Morgan, Colo.-based wireless company providing services to residents and businesses in eastern Colorado and western and central Nebraska.

The company was formerly known as NE Colorado Cellular Inc., prior to which the company was known as Cellular ONE of Northeast Colorado.

Viaero is seeking as much as $150 million in stimulus funding to expand its operations, says Mike Felicissmo, company VP. That presumably would include an upgrade to a 3G network, though the company already provides EDGE services.

Wired telecom companies might not be too happy facing the new competition, though. And some will not be happy if such incumbent firms get funding. Of course, that is what RUS traditionally does.

http://www.fortmorgantimes.com/ci_12922308

Satellite Gains 3.5%, Cable Flat, says Centris

Satellite TV providers have gained 3.5 percent more subscribers, while cable TV operators were essentially flat for the period, say researchers at Centris. And while some have noted sluggishness in ownership of Blu-Ray video players, adoption grew 71 percent over the last year.

There were 7.2 million Blu-Ray households in the first quarter of 2008 and 12.3 million Blu-Ray households in the first quarter of 2009.

Some 32 million households now subscribe to satellite-delivered multi-channel TV service, up from 30.9 million a year ago.

Nearly 63 million households have cable TV, but pay-per-view is quite flat. In April 2009 Centris reported that 12.6 million households ordered PPV in a typical month, unchanged from 2008.

In the first quarter of 2009, about 64 percent of all US households access the Internet each month, up nine percent over 2008, and representing growth of about nine percent.

About 80 percent of all homes accessing the Internet did so using broadband, a 17 percent increase over 2008. The percentage of homes using broadband has grown at about a 17-percent rate over the last three years, Centris says.

Where Did AT&T Prepaid Accounts Go?

AT&T's prepaid results were weaker om the second quarter. "Obviously we had a net loss of customers of about 400,000," AT&T CFO Richard Lindner says.

So what happened? Did those users stop using their mobiles? Other evidence suggests not. Few users in recent surveys claim to have terminated their mobile services entirely.

So the most-logical explanation is that other prepaid mobile providers picked up those 400,000 customers. And Lindner doesn't dispute that view. "Certainly we’re seeing impacts from other competitive offers in the market," he says.

Prepaid represents about four percent of AT&T wireless service revenues and less than that amount as a percentage of total earnings. So AT&T is not likely to push too hard in the prepaid direction for fear of cannibalizing its more-lucrative postpaid business.

But that will mean growing opportunties for providers of prepaid wireless.

"Obviously we recognize there’s certainly some opportunities for us there in that portion of the market and so you’ll see us continue to address that and make some tweaks and changes to our product offers," says Lindner.

"But one thing that I think we feel is important is we are not going to put offers in the market that we don’t feel will be profitable or earn a reasonable return," he adds. "And we won't do anything obviously that would impact or cannibalize our postpaid base."

AT&T, Verizon: Business Segment Suffers Worse than Consumer

Verizon Communications and AT&T arguably took bigger hits to their enterprise than consumer segments as a result of the recession, second quarter financial results suggest.

Revenue from Verizon’s global enterprise business dropped 6.7 percent while the wireless customer segment revenue grew 27.7 percent. Even consumer wired services revenue grew 13.7 percent in the second quarter.

AT&T also reported that the deepest economic impacts in the second quarter came in the business services segment.

AT&T CFO Richard Lindner likewise says total business revenues, including enterprise, wholesale, small and mid-sized customers, were down 5.6 percent year over year. Excluding equipment sales, business revenues were down 4.3 percent, Lindner says.

Wireless revenue was up 10.1 percent, on the other hand, while total wireline consumer customer revenues were $5.4 billion in the second quarter, compared with $5.7 billion in the year-earlier quarter and essentially flat, down only $11 million, versus the first quarter of 2009.

"We’ve seen pressures across business product lines but the largest impacts are volume related in traditional voice and legacy data products," says Lindner. "The sectors where we’ve seen the most impact, as you would expect, are in finance, transportation, and manufacturing."

Consumer broadband and video are helping both AT&T and Verizon, while it appears legacy business products are suffering. Newer services including Ethernet, VPNs, hosting, IP conferencing and applications services grew 15.2 percent year over year.

In an economy where consumer spending drives roughly 75 percent of activity, one might have suspected consumer revenue would be harder hit. Instead, it appears massive job losses have crimped business segment spending the most.

50% to 60% of New Prepaid Wireless Users Will Never Go Back to Post-Paid

Prepaid wireless clearly is growing. In the first quarter, for example, about 61 percent of the new net customers T-Mobile added were prepaid accounts. In the fourth quarter of 2008, T-Mobile added 57 percent prepaid accounts. In the first quarter of 2008 T-Mobile added 25 percent prepaid customers.

So the big question is what those customers might do once the recession is over and there is less need to watch spending on mobile and other communications and entertainment services.

Wireless analyst Chetan Sharma thinks it is possible that "it is quite likely that 50 percent to 60 percent of such consumers don’t go back to postpaid."

For major wireless providers, this will mean a decline in average revenue per user. For prepaid providers, the trend will mean continued opportunities to take market share from postpaid providers.

The other trend is that although prepaid traditionaly has been viewed as a niche segment for lower-income customers, that could be changing. Lots of customers who traditionally have used postpaid plans might find they can get along quite nicely using prepaid.

Over time, even smart phone customers will find they are able to buy prepaid service that allows them to use higher performance, later model devices with prepaid plans.

Mobile Streaming Video Grows 58% Last Quarter

Worldwide mobile data bandwidth usage has grown 30 percent during the second quarter of 2009, says Allot Communications. Asia leads the growth with 36 percent; Europe posted 28 percent growth and the Americas 25 percent.

Heavy data users do not distinguish between their fixed and their mobile networks and seem to expect the same service from the Internet, irrespective of their access method, the report says.

That is going to be a problem, for the same reason a small percentage of heavy users create performance issues for all other users, one might reasonably conclude. The other issue is that the fastest-growing traffic type is streaming video, which grew 58 percent during the quarter. Since streaming video requires 100 times the bandwidth of a voice call, you can imagine what the problem is.

The other issue is that mobile traffic is not evenly distributed: some locations get dramatically more demand than others. Peer-to-peer traffic, for example, accounts for 42 percent of bandwidth utilization in the busiest cells on the network, but only 21 percent in the average cell.

Since mobile licenses are awarded in ways that mean usable bandiwidth in any one location is limited, fancier engineering, higher network cost and more-sophisticated traffic engineering are required at some cell sites, though others might manage just fine.

Internet Rivals TV as Top Leisure Pursuit

The Internet now rivals TV as a favorite leisure activity, say researchers at Frank Magid Associates (click image for larger view). And computer or game consoles are not far behind.