Small, Mid-Sized Businesses Have Embraced Online Advertising

Small and medium-sized businesses in the United States are more likely to advertise online than through traditional media, but spend less on online than traditional media.

In August 2009, 77 percent of U.S. SMBs used online for advertising, compared to 69 percent that used traditional media, according to The Kelsey Group and ConStat.

The groups say the August figures represent the first time penetration of online advertising surpassed traditional.

“We have been tracking the trend of digital/online media replacing traditional media over four waves of the Local Commerce Monitor study,” said Steve Marshall, director of research at The Kelsey Group. “The milestone of digital/online surpassing traditional media among SMBs is an indicator of the broad shift to online platforms.”

Note, however, that spending does not necessarily track penetration. Though more SMBs used digital advertising, the majority of their budgets still went to traditional channels. In August 2009, The Kelsey Group found 36.8% of SMBs’ advertising budgets went toward online. That was up more than 14 percentage points over the prior year.

Total annual ad spending among SMBs was down, from an average of $2,734 in August 2008 to $2,092 in August 2009. Spending on Websites and online profile pages, however, was up more than 26% to $769.

New Cables Mean 72% Drop in Long Haul Bandwidth to Africa

What will 12 new undersea cables to Africa mean? Broadband prices on the long-haul networks will drop as much as 72 percent over the next three years, says Pyramid Research. But demand for capacity will grow at 28 percent through 2013 as well.

Click on the image to enlarge it.

The cables will increase Africa’s total international bandwidth from about 6 Tbps to as much as 34 Tbps and will reduce the number of coastal countries without any cable access from 19 to one.

AT&T Gets Unwanted Attention Over iPhone

No mobile service provider wants the attention AT&T is getting about how unhappy iPhone users are about their ability to use their devices, and the industry as a whole does not need such attention at a time when it faces possibly major reregulation by the Federal Communications Commission that could affect industry revenues right at the point that the industry is racing to upgrade its broadband capabiltiies.

One can argue one way or the other about the state of AT&T's 3G network, but there seems little question that Apple iPhone user behavior is so strikingly different from that of other smart phone users that every carrier has to be concerned about what happens as more devices like the iPhone are sold to end users. If most of them start to behave like iPhone users, carriers are likely going to have serious bandwidth problems.

Apple iPhone users consume two to four times as much network data volume as other smart phone users, according to traffic measurement company Comscore. And it also appears that users of the 3G version use 100 percent more data than iPhone users on the 2.5G networks.

So the business problem is fairly clear. An AT&T data plan of $30 a month for just about any smart phone has dramtically different revenue implications. Most smart phone users put light loads on the network for that $30, while Apple iPhone users put heavy load on the network, for that same $30.

Some think the mere expedient of building new 4G networks will solve the problem. It will help--a lot. But even that is not a permanent solution, in and of itself, if other smart phone users start to behave as iPhone users do, and all of them start consuming more video.

Alcatel-Lucent studies show that Web browsing consumes 32 percent of data-related airtime but 69 percent of bandwidth, while email uses 30 percent of airtime but only four percent of bandwidth.

One suspects this situation cannot continue. Either there will be changes to unlimited data plans, such as higher prices, as well as other ways of better matching network load to service provider revenue. Customers won't be happy about that.

But carriers might have to resort to plans that differentiate between the load different applications--especially video--place on the network and charge accordingly. Mobile networks simply do not have the ability to supply the same amount of bandwidth that wired networks do.

As more users switch to smart phones, and start to consume video and Web applications more intensively, push will come to shove. Some observers think many users will start to use their smart phones more than their wireline-tethered PCs for Web application access. Something has to give here.

And one way things could change is if significant shifts of market share were to occur, spreading the iPhone demand over more networks than AT&T's. All the carriers will keep investing in their networks, and all will be under competitive pressure to keep access costs as low as possible. Despite all that, demand might outstrip supply. So change is inevitable.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/03/technology/companies/03att.html?_r=1&hp

Qwest Upgrades to 100 Gbps, But Worries About Future Price Impact

Qwest Communications is enhancing its nationwide network to deliver speeds of up to 100 Gigabits per second to its customer edge sites. This build-out has begun on Qwest’s network and is planned through 2010, though no further details are publicly available at the moment. But potential customers can expect that 100 Gbps local access to the backbone will be available in markets where Qwest already offers Ethernet-based "iQ Networking" and "QWave" data networking services.

But Pieter Poll, Qwest CTO, says he is concerned that, after a few years, optical component limitations could impair its ability to keep its cost per bit in line with customer expectations. The basic issue is that customers consume 40 percent more bandwidth every year and expect prices to remain flat.

That means Qwest has to continue reducing its cost per bit by more than 40 percent every year to keep up, Poll told Telephony Online. And Poll worries that Moore's Law, which generally governs development in the electrical domain, will not be possible in the optical domain.

“In the optical environment, you have basic physics issues in how you can integrate to bring costs down," he says. "There is no Moore’s Law in the optical world."

If that observation proves correct, Qwest wil have to look for cost reductions elsewhere. Operations, marketing, overhead, sales and other costs might have to be cut if the gains cannot be made in linear fashion on the optical network element front.

One suspects optical suppliers will do better than Poll now forecasts, but the challenge appears to be real.

1.3 Exabytes of Mobile Video Consumed in 2017

Portable laptop and netbook users will consume 1.3 exabytes of video content per month by 2017, a sixty-fold increase over 2009, says Coda Research Consultancy. If that forecast proves correct, mobile video will account for nearly 75 percent of all mobile traffic.

The top region for video consumption will be Asia Pacific, which will account for just over half (53 percent) of all video traffic globally. In contrast, Europe will account for 26 percent of all global video traffic, and North America 14 percent.

The Asia Pacific region will be so prominent because mobile broadband will be for many the primary or exclusive way of getting access to the Internet, the company says.

The report shows that two thirds of global traffic using by portables will be on Long Term Evolution (LTE) networks by 2017.

Nokia Ditches Barcelona

Nokia apparently will not be exhibiting at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona in February 2010. MWC is generally considered the paramount global mobility event, so the move probably is one more indicator of potential change of marketing emphasis by equipment and software providers.

It is no surprise that nearly all communications trade shows and conferences have been under pressure for a couple of years as the recession has forced travel cutbacks, as tier one carriers and enterprises have clamped on severe travel restrictions and some enterprises actually seem to be looking to "prove" that videoconferencing actually saves money by reducing travel expenses.

One way to demonstrate such a business case is to force employees to use videoconferencing and other conferencing tools while restricting travel.

Such changes have been occurring rather broadly on the wired network side of the business for a decade or more. In part, global consolidation means suppliers have fewer customers to sell to. Using direct sales channels typically makes more sense in concentrated markets, compared to fragmented markets.

But other changes have occurred as well. Quite aside from those changes, online communication channels obviously have reduced the need for indirect marketing venues, and have allowed for more use of direct channels. Many firms are shifting spending from legacy channels to their own Web channels, for example.

The deep global recession has had an effect as well, but that is a temporary trend. What remains to be seen is the longer term change of marketing techniques and approaches based on use of Web and IP technologies. Among the bigger changes are a shift from "push" to "pull" marketing, for example.

Mobile Video the Next Big Thing?

Mobile video is considered by many to be among the next big things in mobility use and service provider revenue.

It likely also will be a big driver of consumption calculators, bigger data plans and at-home or Wi-Fi connections.

The reason is physics. Video requires two orders of magnitude worth of bandwidth compared to most other applications. That's a 100 times greater load placed on a network and a user's bandwidth cap.

Some people think Wi-Fi is a transitional access technology, to be replaced by mobile broadband connections. That's not likely. In the business world, Wi-Fi is replacing Ethernet wired networks on a permanent basis.

In the consumer space, Wi-Fi is replacing wired connections as well. And in the public space, Wi-Fi is getting much more use by mobile handsets, where the original connected device was a PC. As video consumption grows, users quickly are going to figure out they can reduce pressure on their bandwidth caps by using Wi-Fi as often as possible, and especially for video streaming or downloads.

Mobile video might be the next big thing in any number of ways.