How Many New Broadband Access Lines Will be Added by Broadband Stimulus?

For most applicants, Feb. 16, 2010 to March 15, 2010 is the window for filing "broadband stimulus" requests to the Rural Utilities Service and National Telecommunications & Information Administration programs. 

Satellite providers largely will be waiting for a new "third round" aimed at funding satellite projects, funded by the RUS.  A funding window will open "later" to provide grants for satellite service for premises that remain unserved after all other Recovery Act broadband funding is awarded, NTIA says. 

It isn't clear how much funding that might entail. The RUS will be disbursing about $2.2 billion in this funding round, while the NTIA will be awarding about $2.6 billion, of which approximately $2.35 billion will be made available for infrastructure projects, $150 million for public computer center projects, and $100 million for sustainable adoption projects. 

Most of the NTIA money is expected to support middle-mile projects, rather than access. Perhaps oddly enough, that decision by NTIA means there will not be a significant increase in new broadband access facilities,. since the middle mile projects, by definition, are "backbone" projects deemed necessary to get broadband backhaul facilities into place, not serve end users. 

The RUS, on the other hand, has said its $2.2 billion will be spent directly to expand access facilities. 

Assume each new broadband line costs just $3000, the figure suggested as an average for new rural broadband deployments. If all $2.2 billion is spent on access facilities, an additional 733,333 new broadband access lines would be added to the national total. Since there are additional costs, the total will be less than that. 

As the bulk of the total RUS funding ($2.3 billion out of a total of $2.5 billion) will be awarded in the second round, and using the same $3,000 per line assumption, of the $200 million awarded in the first round, 66,667 new lines could have been added, for a grand total of 800,000 lines. 

That is not to say the additional middle-mile facilities will not be foundational, and will result in potential new lines later. But there is no particular reason to believe an additional $3,000 per new access line will be required, when the time comes to actually install access facilities.

$7.2 billion for 800,000 lines might be an unfair way to characterize the program, as some of the money will be spent for public access facilities and training, and the middle-mile infrastructure is required for eventual deployment of new access facilities. 

But it is not far from the truth to point out this near-term conclusion: the immediate change in new broadband access lines from the whole broadband stimulus program will be on the order of 800,000. There will be some additional growth when wireless broadband networks funded under the program are able to finish deployment of their new networks, of course.

But the calculation of 800,000 new lines does not subject overhead and other administrative costs that will lessen the total number of added lines. In all likelihood, adding all fixed broadband lines will only bring the total back up to the 800,000 range. 

14% of Information Workers Use Web Conferencing Daily or Weekly

By some surveys, such as this study by Forrester Research, Web conferencing tools still have quite some ways to grow.

Only about 14 percent of information workers use Web conferencing daily or weekly (click on image for larger view).

About a quarter say they use Web conferencing, compared to 26 percent who say they use instant messaging, for example.


The Forrester Research survey of  2,001 U.S. information workers were "a little surprising," the company says.

Despite the heavy investment by a majority of firms, Web conferencing is still used by only one in four information workers. "Given the benefits of real-time collaboration for bridging the distances that divide many teams, it’s troubling that so few information workers use Web meeting technology regularly, Forrester researchers say.

Only four percent of information workers use Web conferencing daily. Workers in this high-need
group are dominated by customer-facing employees in sales and marketing.

For 10 percent of information workers, Web conferencing is a weekly activity, largely driven by customer-facing workers.

About 76 percent of information workers don’t use Web conferencing at all.

Google Maps to Sync Android Mobile and PC Searches

Many users have grown accustomed to the idea that their appointments, contacts and email can be synchronized across their mobile and PC devices. Now Google wants to make that same sort of experience possible in Google Maps run on Android devices.

Google Maps for mobile now will "sync" searches made on PCs with searches on Android mobiles. "Personalized suggestions" make it easy to find places users previously have searched for.
There is one immediately practical value: instead of searching on a PC and printing out directions, users now will simply be able to recall searches and have the information displayed on their mobile screens when they need the information.

"For example, imagine you're on your computer and you come across the Place Page for Mario's Bohemian Cigar Store Cafe," the Google blog say Michael Siliski and Taj Campbell, Google Maps staffers, on the Google Mobile Blog. "When you're ready to go and want to get directions, just open Google Maps on your phone, start typing "mar," and you'll quickly see a suggestion, saving you from re-typing a long query and making it easier and faster to be on your way."

The new feature also adds a way to "mark" places on your own maps that will appear on either a PC or Android display whenever a map near that place is displayed.

"When viewing place details, just press the star icon next to the place name; these starred places are automatically synchronized between desktop and mobile, and can be accessed from both the 'More' menu on your phone and from the My Maps tab on your computer," they say.

"Starring" and "personalized suggestions" both require that users be signed in with their Google account, and "Web History" must be enabled in order to use personalized suggestions.

Both features are available in Google Maps 3.4. On Nexus One phones, users get this version of Maps after accepting the over-the-air update that already is in progress.

For other Android devices, starring and personalized suggestions will soon be available by downloading Google Maps 3.4 from Android Market.

Can These Economic Growth and Unemployment Forecasts be Right?

As part of the annual budget, the Obama White House assumes real gross domestic product growth of 2.7 percent in 2010, followed by 3.8 percent, 4.3 percent and 4.2 percent in 2013.

At the same time, the forecast assumes unemployment of 10 percent in 2010, with a decline to 9.2 percent in 2011, 8.2 percent in 2012 and 7.3 percent in 2013.


I'm no economist, but at least some trained economists have to be wondering how growth can occur at those accelerating rates if unemployment remains so stubbornly high. 


There are some obvious answers, including the possibility that the White House does not actually believe both sets of assumptions are congruent, but have some other compelling political motivations for claiming the figures. 


Other forecasts suggest that we will not recover the lost jobs of the recent recession until 2014 or even later. As consumer spending drives 70 percent of GDP, it is hard to see strong growth and high unemployment at the same time.  


Perhaps growth will be higher, and unemployment less bad, than these numbers suggest. As somebody who believes in the vitality of the U.S. workforce and economy, I would not bet against the United States, if impediments are not thrown in its way. 


But then, I'm not a professional economist. 

Comcast To Buy New Global Telecom

Comcast Corp. apparently has agreed to purchase New Global Telecom Inc., according to XChange. The deal should reemphasize the growing role cable operators expect to play in the business IP communications space, beginning with the small business segment.

Based in Golden, Colo., New Global Telecom provides wholesale services to carriers and competitive service providers in the U.S. The company has recently announced a series of private-label deals, under which NGT supplies branded VoIP services to operators like American Broadband Inc.

Text Rules, Even for Older Users

A survey by Tekelec shows that text messaging, once seen as the main communications tool for teenagers and young adults, has become prevalent among older generations. The 500-person survey shows that 60 percent of users older than 45 are just as likely to use SMS as they were to make voice calls from their mobile.

That's perhaps not good news for voice usage but shows the value of text messaging plans. About 40 percent of female users say they "mainly text," rather than talk. About 30 percent of male respondents reported they are likely to text rather than call.

Text messaging also is catching up to e-mail as the preferred means of daily international communication, with 32 percent of responses across all ages preferring SMS, compared to 33 percent who prefer to use email.

So is the fact that text messaging is displacing some amount of voice a good thing for mobile service providers? Not entirely. More than 80 percent of mobile service provider revenue still is derived directly from voice, says Alan Pascoe, Tekelec senior manager.

"Of the remaining data piece, SMS has the largest chunk of revenue and the highest profitability," he says.  "Texting is particularly appealing for operators because nearly every subscriber can do it and networks have sufficient signaling bandwidth."

"Still, profitability isn’t quite keeping up with usage, thanks to all-you-can-eat plans, but operators can reduce costs with a more efficient SMS network infrastructure," Pascoe says.

Pascoe says Tekelec is not sure how much email volume is being displaced by texting. But as a general rule younger users are more comfortable with texting than older users and businesses still prefer email.

"A key reason is that an SMS message implies an urgent request, whereas email is typically less urgent," he says. "Personal communication often revolves around an immediate need, like making plans, so texting is the more natural approach outside of the office."

But email is also more conducive for business tasks like sending attachments, he adds.

So will text messaging ultimately be as "archivable" as email? Certainly operators are looking at a number of ways to "add value and stickiness to SMS offerings, including archiving," Pascoe says.

"The most common ideas we hear discussed are email-like functionalities: archiving, copying, forwarding, black and white lists and group distribution," says Pascoe. "The wild card for text message archiving demand is Google Voice, which allows subscribers to store SMS in Gmail instead of on their phones, keeping messages indefinitely."

"With Google providing this for free, it may be difficult for operators to generate revenue from it," Pascoe notes.

Person-to-person messages are the foundation of SMS, and will dominate for the foreseeable future, he thinks. "But the model is evolving so that growth is strongest for person-to-application, application-to-person and machine-to-machine communications."

Why Cloud Computing is the Finger Pointing at the Moon, Not the Moon

The thing about "cloud computing" is that it is very difficult to isolate and separate from other broader changes in computing infrastructure, all of which are happening simultaneously. We are, most would agree, on the cusp of a change in basic change in computational architecture from "PC" centric to something that might be called "mobile Internet computing," for lack of a more-descriptive and well-understood term.

The point, simply, is that the shift to "cloud-based" computing is inextricably bound up with other crucial changes such as a shift to use of mobile devices as the key end user access device, the rise of Web-based, hosted and remote applications and user experiences.

For most people, businesses and organizations, the shift of geolocational "places" where computing takes place will occur in the background. The main change is the evolution in things that can be done with computational resources.

Aside from something like an order of magnitude more devices that are connected to computing resources, the new mobile Internet will mean the creation of something like a "sensing" fabric will be put into place. Cameras will create "eyes," microphones will create "mouths to speak," and "ears" to hear. Kinesthetic capabilities will create new ways to interact with information overlaid on the "real" or physical world.

All those new devices also will create new possibilities for enriching "location" information. GPS is fine for fixing a location in terms of latitude and longitude. But what about altitude? What about locating devices, people or locations that are in high-rise buildings? Emergency services and first responders need that additional information.

But the possibilities for "sensing" networks grow exponentially once communications, altitude, attitude and other three-dimensional information is available to any application. Lots of medical and recreational devices now can capture biomedical information in real time. Add real-time communications and many other possibilities will open up.

The point is simply that cloud computing as computational architecture will enable other changes, going well beyond simple ability to send and receive information of any sort. The shift to distributed computing will, with mobile sensors, devices and people, lead to vastly-different ability to monitor the environment, process and annotate or contextualize events and objects in the real world with granularity.

That is not to understate the challenges and opportunities for a wide range of companies in the ecosystem, caused directly by a shift of core competencies. By definition, a change of computing eras has always been accompanied by a completely new list of industry leaders.

Keenly aware of that historic precedent, none of today’s computing giants will take anything for granted as the new era begins to take hold. At the same time, it is hard not to predict that key stakeholders of just about every sort might find themselves severely disrupted by the shift.

So far, whole industries ranging from media and music to telecom, advertising and retailing have found themselves struggling to adjust to a world with lower barriers to entry and radically different ways of creating and delivering products and services people want.

As the shift to the next computing paradigm occurs, many more human activities and business models will find themselves subject to attack and change.

Within the global communications business, it should be noted that the incremental growth of just about everything “mobile” will hit an inflection point. Whether that happened in 2009, will happen in 2010 or takes just a bit longer is not the point.

To talk about a world where a trillion devices are connected, in real time, to the Internet, to servers, software and applications, is to talk about a world where mobility IS communications. Mobility will not be merely an important segment of the business, it will be THE business at the end user level.

That is not to say the core backbone networks, data centers and other long-haul and even access networks are unimportant; to the contrary they will be the fundamental underpinning of the “always on, always connected” ecosystem of applications and business activity which will depend on those assets.

Without denigrating in any way the “pipes,” dumb or otherwise, that will be the physical underpinning of all the applications, there is only so much value anybody can wring out of plumbing. Most of the economic value is going to reside elsewhere.

That said, there already are numerous ways to look at cloud computing infrastructure, as it is used to build businesses that create added value.

Almost by definition, cloud computing enables consumption of software and applications that use remote computing facilities. We sometimes call this “software as a service” and the trend is an early precursor of what happens in the shift from PC-based to mobile and cloud-based computing.

Such uses of cloud computing will have intermediate effects on end user experiences. Lots of everyday computing or application experiences will shift away from local computing or storage, and towards on-the-fly rendering.

The shift to utility computing—enterprise use of cloud computing—will shift data centers from “owned and operated” facilities to outsourced services. But that likely will have less impact than the shift to SaaS-based applications.

The former is an “industrial” shift; the latter is more an “end user” shift. And all cloud computing effects will have most impact when they directly touch end user experiences.

Utility computing contributes to many end user experiences, but much utility computing is “behind the scenes.” Hosted applications are, and increasingly will be, everyday experiences for most human beings.

Web services are the area where end user impact will be noticed most strikingly, and where the most-profound transformations will occur, as Web services—mostly mobile—will touch end users with services and features that cannot be provided any other way.

Cloud computing is important, to be sure. But we will miss the bigger picture in focusing too narrowly on what it means for data centers, utility computing services, transport and access providers. Even the huge trend towards mobility is a sub-plot.

Cloud computing will enable an era of ubiquitous computing, with social and economic consequences we cannot begin to imagine. It is a huge business change for all of us in communications. But it is just a finger pointing at the moon; not the moon itself.