Google to Build Fiber to Home Test Networks

In the latest version of its Internet access demonstration projects, Google says it will build some wholesale fiber-to-the-home networks. James Kelly, Google project manager, says Google is looking for communities interested in becoming trial sites, and will be accepting requests for information until March 26, 2010.

Initial plans call for building FTTH facilities serving 50,000 people, perhaps as many as 500,000. That's a bit indefinite. Assume a typical household has about 2.5 people in it and one could see perhaps 20,000 to 200,000 homes connected.

But there are lots of unanswered questions. It isn't clear whether Google means "a network passing X number of homes" or "a network serving X number of homes." Those are very different sorts of numbers if Google builds anyplace where a strong cable operator and a strong telco provider already are in business.

As a demonstration project, Google would learn as much serving 20,000 potential customers as 200,000. Frankly, there is very little that is unknown about the cost of building a fiber-to-home network, really. What Google might be interested in is the business case for a wholesale broadband network that didn't have to supply voice and traditional video services.

But again, there is very little that is unknown about that business case, either. We know the cost to build the network and operate it as an ISP. You can derive commercial rates by looking at what is charged in the local, regional or national markets, multiply by take rate of homes passed and you'd have your scenario without digging a single trench.

Kelly says "we are going to try out new ways to build and operate fiber networks and share what we learn with the world."

There likely is not much to be uncovered about the process of building FTTH, so Google likely means sharing what it learns about the business model for wholesale networks, which a few have experimented with in the U.S. market.

Broadweave, which operates in Provo, Utah, is an example, though it is unclear whether the firm will continue to allow wholesale customers to use its network. The current thinking seems to be to operate as a typical retail triple-play provider, rather than as a wholesale provider of access to third parties who may wish to do so.

Broadweave Networks took over a project originally started as a municipal FTTH network, paying $40.6 million for the assets, and struggled in 2009. The company drastically slowed its growth among residential customers to save on the high cost of new sign-ups in the spring of 2009, reports the Daily Herald.

Broadweave began asking prospective customers to foot part of the $1,000 installation bill in an effort to discourage new customers and effectively slow growth while the company grapples with ongoing financial concerns.

The company is instead decided to focus on commercial accounts and reactivation of former customers who already have optical drops in place.

The flow of new customers reportedly was slowed from hundreds a month to "tens or dozens" a month.

Google might attempt to prove the thesis that an FTTH wholesaler can make money strictly as a supplier of access services to third party partners who simply lease capacity on such networks. The big question always has been whether any such network actually is viable in markets where there are strong cable and telco competitors already in place.

Google previously has built limited municipal Wi-Fi networks as well. It isn't clear what Google believes it might have learned from those experiments.

In truth, the gambit most likely is simply another tool to be used in Google's lobbying for setting of national broadband policies, and not much more.

Broadband "Overshoot": How Big an Issue?

Fixed network operators, including cable operators and telcos, face two different problems when considering upgrades of their broadband access networks. One danger is not investing enough to keep capacity in line with the level of market demand. The opposite problem is investing too much.

In fact, that is a scenario at least some mobile competitors hope might be the case. "Fixed line broadband will overshoot the performance needs of the market, resulting in increasing data cord cutting as individuals, families, and businesses appreciate the value of mobility more than the value of excess bandwidth," says Russ McGuire Sprint Nextel VP.

That's not an unexpected view,coming from a wireless-only company building high-capacity wireless networks, but it is worth considering.Mobile broadband might, or might not, be a reasonable substitute for users who really want to watch lots of video on their PCs, smartphones or other mobile devices.

But mobile is likely to be quite a reasonable alternative for users who don't stream or download much video, especially if they are fairly mobile, either locally or over larger distances.

Video and Web Drive Mobile Bandwidth Consumption

Mobile bandwidth demand already is driven by video and Web access, a new analysis by Allot shows (click on image for larger view).

And though peer-to-peer applications were the cause of bandwidth fears several years ago, most video activity now occurs using HTTP, meaning it is now part of the Web browser experience.

As is true for backbone networks and fixed networks, voice, instant messaging, email and all other apps besides video and Web applications are a negligible driver of bandwidth consumption.

That doesn't mean revenue reflects bandwidth use. Revenue still is inordinately driven by voice and texting. Over time, that will change. If broadband is what is driving use of the network, then broadband has to become the mainstay of the revenue model as well.

Survey Finds Shockingly Low UC Adoption

Maybe it's just me, but after decades of the industry talking about, and delivering, unified messaging features, and after more than a decade of pushing other features such as unified directories, find me-follow me and other "unified" communications features, it still does not appear that all that many organizations really are using them.

Or so it would appear after a survey of 544 information technology professionals in the United States and United Kingdom by Freeform Dynamics.

The study suggests there currently is what some of us might call "shockingly low" adoption of unified communications. You might have thought otherwise, given the shift to new terminology such as "unified communications and collaboration." That might suggest saturation of UC, and a need for UCC.

The Freeform Dynamics might indicate something else: perhaps customers are not so enamored of the UC solutions they have been offered. Suppliers can react in a couple of ways. Maybe customers and prospects simply do not understand the value, in which case marketing and education should do the trick.

The other tack is to humbly acknowledge that the solutions we have been offering do not add enough value, do not offer additional value at the right price points, or that there are unarticulated problems we have not addressed.

The Freedorm Dynamics study might suggest that the industry has not yet found the "killer app" that makes UCC or UC intuitively valuable to most prospects and buyers.

IT Professionals Don't Think Much of Enterprise Communications, Study Suggests

In a recent survey of 544 information technology professionals, Freeform Dynamics discovered that relatively few U.K. and U.S. IT professionals are satisfied that their communications capabilities are highly efficient and effective.

Except for firms with fewer than 10 employees, less than 20 percent of respondents indicated their communications capabilities were, in fact, very well suited to current business requirements.

You may take that as a good sign that much upside continues to exist for unified and advanced communications that IT professionals believe really help their organizations perform more effectively.

But you might also take it as a sign that the industry, collectively, has done a poor job of creating and delivering on solutions that IT professionals believe are well suited to business requirements. Either way, the Freeform Dynamics study suggests there is much opportunity to provide solutions that actually are perceived to deliver value.

One is tempted to say we haven't done a very good job with unified communications, but it might be worse than that. We might not have done such a great job with communications, period.

Wi-Fi Now Crucial for Mobile Networks

A new study by Coda Research Consultancy predicts that Wi-Fi enabled mobile handset penetration in the United States will grow at 25 percent compound average growth rates between 2009 and 2015.

Most of that growth will come as smartphone sales pick up, and the Wi-Fi capability will be crucial for mobile service providers attempting to maintain high quality service. Since much data demand is created by smartphone users, networks can offload quite a lot of traffic to Wi-Fi-connected fixed networks using the Wi-Fi capability.



It's a "win-win" situation. Users often will discover their devices perform faster on Wi-Fi, while mobile service providers can conserve capital investment. Some users will find Wi-Fi helps them manage their bandwidth caps. Also, Wi-Fi-equiped smartphones will make fixed connections at home more valuable as well.

User Behavior Changes Mobile Device Design Priorities

Smartphones get used for work purposes, to be sure, but what really seems to make mobile Web and Internet access behavior different from PC behavior are the things people do on their mobiles. And the Apple iPhone, as much as anything else, points to where we are going.

It isn't so much that users increasingly listen to music, play games, use social networking sites and send instant messages on their mobiles. Users can do those things on their PCs as well.

They use the Web, catch up on news or watch videos on both mobile and fixed PC platforms. But there seems little doubt that, for most people, it is personal and entertainment apps that increasingly are important, not keeping up with work activities.

We used to describe this behavior as requiring smartphones that balance work and personal life. These days, the emphasis for device design seems deliberately skewed to personal usage modes. That isn't to discount continuing use of smartphones for work purposes. But it is to note that device design has moved well beyond "productivity."

In fact, design priorities seem almost to have flipped. Where it once was important to handle email and calendar well, it now seems important to handle Web, music and navigation applications well, while also supporting email and calendar functions.