Manassas Pulls Plug on "Broadband Over Powerline" Service

The Manassas City Council unanimously voted to discontinue offering its municipal broadband over Powerline access service. The Manassas service had been touted in the past as an example of how municipally-provided broadband service could succeed, as well as a proof of concept of the idea of using power lines as the access mechanism.

The shutfown affects about 520 residents and businesses who currently subscribe to the service, which will end in three months.

The council cited three reasons for the decision. First, customer penetration had been declining. Also, the service was costing more than it took in as revenue, and a determination that meter reading services do not require broadband access.

Observers note that the business case never proved as robust as expected. "It's costing a little more to maintain the system than we projected in the budget," Manassas Director of Utilities Michael Moon said. "The original projections were that the customer base would be double this."

The city has been running the service since the private operator, COMtek, found it also could not make a profit on the system.

In January 2009, there were 637 residential and 51 commercial BPL subscribers in Manassas. In February 2010, those numbers had shrunk to 457 residential and 50 commercial subscribers.

 The Utilities Commission said that the total revenue brought in by BPL for fiscal year 2010 was almost $186,000, but the expense of keeping up the City-owned system was costing the ratepayers a little more than $351,000, resulting in a net loss of almost $166,000.

"In October 2003, the Manassas City Council was told that it could expect as much as $4.5 million in revenue from awarding a 10-year BPL franchise," said American Radio Relay League CEO David Sumner. "Instead, six months later, BPL had turned into a money pit for the City of Manassas. Anyone thinking of investing in BPL would do well to learn from the Manassas experience."

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"Digital Divide" is Closing

Policy advocates and policymakers have worried about a "digital divide" in U.S. Internet usage, as much as global policymakers have worried about the difference between communications use in developed and developing regions.

But a new study by eMarketer suggests that the U.S. digital divide is closing fairly rapidly. By 2014, in four years, Internet usage rates by Americans of black ancestry will just about equal rates of U.S. "whites" today, while Hispanic American use of the Internet will rise to within six percentage points of the current U.S. average usage by "white" Americans.

That is not to say rates will be identical, but the point is that almost nobody thinks "white" Americans generally are victims of a "digital divide" today, though there are more issues in rural or isolated parts of the country. In fact, most of the non-adoption factors now are of a "demand" sort rather than a "supply" sort. In other words, most people who want broadband already buy it.

If by 2015 Americans of "black" or "Hispanic" heritage have those same rates, the significance of the "divide" should be largely moot. That is not to say the issue is completely moot, but closing the last percentage or two of gap in any endeavor always is a matter of effort and reward. And since the primary issue these days is demand, not supply, some circumspection might be in order, in terms of the amount of effort expended, compared to the potential benefits. The markets, and consumers, seem to be doing a relatively good job, unaided, in terms of closing the digital divide.

Apple iAd Wants to Change "Ads that Suck"

It isn't clear whether the typical mobile ad created for Apple's new iAd network will be as immersive and interactive as the example Apple CEO Steve Jobs shows here.

But the example suggests what Apple would like to see happen: ads that are closer to entertainment than anything we've seen so far, incorporating interactive and gaming experiences, for example. To use the obvious analogy, today's ads are outside the content; in the "Toy Story" example the ads are part of the content, essentially.

The issue will be how talented advertisers will be, not so much Apple. Unless firms are willing to allow Apple to produce the "creative," as well as handle the placement, it is doubtful most ads will be this well done.

Telcordia Warns of Mobile Operator Marginalization

Broadband access is becoming a commodity, even for mobile service providers, who must figure out what else they can offer consumers once basic mobile broadband connections have become a feature purchased by the majority of mobile phone users.

The good news for mobile operators in many regions around the globe, data average revenue per user (ARPU) has quadrupled over the past six years and now is nearly half of voice ARPU.

But that product will saturate, as has fixed broadband, leaving mobile providers to look for the next wave of services and applications to sell.

"The popularity of video and other third-party over-the-top services are breaking mobile broadband networks and business models because they siphon off revenue while adding to the network's workload," says Pat McCarthy, Telcordia VP.

Since Telcordia believes that effort must include measures to differentiate3 access services, it is obvious why extending "strong" versions of network neutrality to wireless networks is so dangerous: it would close off most of the ways such differentiated service can be provided.

McCarthy says operators must distinguish between different types of traffic and prioritize them. For example, personalized end user services that generate revenue for an operator and its business partners should enjoy priority access to network resources, while zero-revenue OTT content should be managed with a tiered bandwidth management solution, he says.

Most-if not all-service providers undoubtedly would agree, a fact that illustrates why network neutrality rules or even reregulating broadband access as a common carrier service would be so devastating.

"An operator's need to manage bandwidth is the first step toward realizing a profitable business, and they must build on that capability, forming active partnerships with end users and their choice of content providers, to get their fair share of the profits," says McCarthy.

Already, mobile broadband traffic continues to grow, but revenues aren’t keeping pace, McCarthy says.

Perhaps the biggest threat of all comes from over-the-top players, McCarthy notes.  Operators will be required to make all the investments in infrastructure and provide a reliable customer experience. And yet, if they aren’t careful, they will absorb the bulk of the costs, while allowing third-party content
providers to reap the biggest profits.

Print content and video content providers say they have learned the same lesson from the music industry's experience with online music. Telecom industry executives probably have to learn their own lessons from the experiences of the fixed-line broadband experience.

None of that will be easy, as application providers largely will resist. But revenue sharing across the ecosystem is the only stable way forward, where maximum innovation and network investment can occur.

"For a time, while the priority is building out the mobile broadband infrastructure, there may be a
competitive advantage in offering a better network," McCarthy says. "But soon enough, the pipe will become a commodity, and the long-term potential revenues will be in the delivery of services, applications, and other user-demanded content."

Ecosystem conflict is inevitable as the new value chains are constructed. But service providers can help themselves by figuring out ways to leverage assets they already have, and offerng them to business partners, for example. It won't be easy, but it is necessary.

Consumers Will Decide what iPad Is, Not Apple

It isn't clear yet whether the Apple iPad is a "mobile" device used outside the home, or a "cordless" device used inside the home. The notion that the iPad is a device "between a smartphone and notebook" suggests a "mobile" device that can be used both outside the home and inside it.

The "cordless" use case is different: the iPad ultimately winds up being a media consumption device mostly used around the house as a shared device, where a mobile phone or a netbook or notebook tends to be a "personal" device used by discrete people.

Imagine something that lies around on coffee and end tables, on kitchen counters and gets picked up and used for various reasons on a casual basis, but which is a "shared" device rather more like a cordless phone  or remote control. That implies a lower price than currently is the case, but everybody expects that to happen.

Nobody can say for sure whether these, or even other undiscovered use cases will eventually emerge. In the near term, the iPad might wind up being used as a game platform, an e-book reader, a video consumption device and an educational content platform, at least if user consumption matches the current supply of applications in the App Store.

According to App Store analytics company Distimo, out of 2,385 iPad-only apps, 833 of them are games, about 35 percent of all the iPad-only apps currently available in the App Store.

The other popular categories are ‘entertainment’ with 260 apps, and ‘education’ with 205 apps.

But the emphasis on games and entertainment also is true of the iPod as well. In fact, 70 percent of the most popular applications on the iPhone are published in entertainment and education categories, compared to 40 percent on the iPad.

About  83 percent of applications on the iPad are offered on a paid basis, while 73 percent of all applications are offered "for fee" on the iPhone. The average price of all paid applications that are solely compatible with iPad is $3.61 compared to $3.55 for applications compatible with iPhone.

Medical applications are most expensive on both the iPad ($9.39) and iPhone ($10.73). On the contrary, Education ($9.10), Healthcare & Fitness ($4.41), Music ($6.86) and Sports ($4.95) applications are significantly more expensive on the iPad.

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"Most Mobile Ads Suck," Says Steve Jobs

You can count on one thing whenever Apple does something new: it will always say the old way of doing things "sucks." And that's what Steve Jobs, Apple CEO, says about most mobile advertising, in introducing  iAd, a new mobile advertising platform that will be built in to the new iPhone operating system, iPhone OS 4.0.  In typical Steve Jobs fashion, the Apple CEO said "we think most of this kind of advertising sucks." 


Apple tends to reshape just about every market it enters, so its entry into mobile advertising has to be noted. Just as signficantly, iAd is expected to provide a monetization vehicle for many developers of free apps for the Apple App Store, driving the apps business, not just marketing. 


"When you look at ads on a phone, it's not like a desktop," says Jobs. "On a desktop, search is where it's at." 


"But on mobile devices, that hasn't happened," says Jobs. "Search is not happening on phones; people are using apps."


"And this is where the opportunity is to deliver advertising is," he argues.


"The average user spends over 30 minutes every day using apps on their phone," he says. "If we said we wanted to put an ad up every three minutes, that's 10 ads per device per day." Assuming 100 million devices in the user base, that's one billion ad opportunities per day, Jobs noted.


"This is a pretty serious opportunity, but we want to do more than that," says Jobs. "We want to change the quality of the ads too."


"What we want to do with iAds is deliver interaction and emotion," says Jobs, and he undoubtedly is thinking about video and audio. Apple will keep 40 percent of ad revenue, and give developers whose apps host the ads 60 percent of ad revenue.

Studios Throw Blockbuster Video a Lifeline

It is not unheard of for one or more content providers to favor one channel, or even one contestant within a channel. As a rule, theatrical exhibition gets priority for new movie releases, with a standard set of release windows for other channels. In recent decades, the home video and DVD windows have changed the most, since home video and DVD channels now represent the single-biggest source of revenue, by channel.

But there are stresses in the channel as the revenue from home video and DVD, especially DVD purchases, is declining. In the once-hugely-important, and now simply important video rental channel, Blockbuster, historically the single most important video rental channel, and now the largest remaining place-based retailer, is struggling to survive, and seems to be getting a lifeline thrown to it by some of the leading stuidos.

Blockbuster recently got an exclusive deal with Time Warner, and apparently now has distribution deals with the Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment and Sony Pictures Home Entertainment that give Blockbuster an advantage: new release rentals will be available at Blockbuster, and not through Netflix or Redbox, about a month earlier.

Basically, that means Blockbuster will be able to rent new hit movies and releases on the same day they become available for purchase. Since each form of distribution satisfies part of the fixed demand for any new title (most people view a movie only once), it makes a difference in terms of sales volume that one channel partner has a month advantage.

The unusual new arrangement with Blockbuster shows just how important a distribution channel it is deemed to be. So appparently concerned are studios about the company's survival that some are giving Blockbuster a significant sales advantage over the rival video rental distributors.

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