Online Video Consumption Catches Broadcast by 2020

By 2020 Internet video consumption will eclipse the consumption of broadcast TV programming, according to researchers at The Diffusion Group. Keep in mind that this is different from arguing the revenue earned by content or service providers will reach a cross-over point in 2020.

While the amount of time spent viewing TV has remained relatively stable, the amount of time consumers spent watching online video increased 84 percent between 2008 and 2009. When extrapolated across the entire TV-viewing population, the average time spent viewing online video in 2009 was 52 percent more than in 2008.

TDG expects that this rate of growth will actually increase during the next five to seven years due primarily to the increased use of the television as the platform of choice for in-home web video viewing.

According to Colin Dixon, senior partner and co-author of TDG’s new report, “The total amount of time spent watching video from all sources, including PayTV and Internet video, will hold constant during the next 10 years at around 32 hours a week. With online video usage accelerating we expect the amount of Internet video watched to eclipse the amount of live broadcast TV around 2020.”

The forecast may appear shocking to some, and will hinge on developments in broadband access pricing, bandwidth quality and deployment, both fixed and wireless. Wireless providers are unlikely to permit high video consumption on their networks without creation of new revenue models or a change in end user willingness to pay.

Fixed providers and content providers are unlikely to encourage online video consumption when it simply cannibalizes existing multi-channel video revenue and imposes higher network access costs.

“Keep in mind that during this period, Internet and broadcast delivery of video content will become blended in such a way that consumers will be unaware of which conduit serves which content," says Colin Dixon, TDG senior partner.

It is conceivable that today's multi-channel video providers, for example, will be able to shift in a relatively revenue-neutral way if "TV Everywhere" packages are accepted by end users on a wide scale. That doesn't speak to the issues of access providers who have to support the dramatically-increased infrastructure, though.

One suspects the revenue equivalent of this forecast would not show cross over in 2020 for a variety of compelling reasons, including a more-uncertain regulatory environment leading to less investor interest in access infrastructure, need to develop new business models and possible disincentives to consume online video, such as plan overages.

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LTE of 100 Mbps at 75 Km

Telstra and Nokia Siemens Networks have conducted groundbreaking trials of Long Term Evolution networks in Australia, successfully achieving peak speeds of 100 Mbps download and 31 Mbps upload over a record-breaking distance of 75 kilometers in regional Victoria.

Performance of that sort helps explain why, after years of wrangling, Telstra has agree to essentially divest itself of its fixed-line network and become a wholesale buyer of capacity to support its fixed-line operations.

As has been the case elsewhere, incumbent carriers can be persuaded to trade away an access near-monopoly for something else of tangible value. For some, it is the ability to expand in non-traditional markets outside the existing footprint. For others it is a chance to invest in higher-growth or higher-margin businesses.

For Telstra, the LTE carrot is more appetizing than the structural separation stick.

IT-Online - LTE world-first trial achieves 100Mbps at 75km

TD-LTE A "Poor Man's" LTE?

Interest in TD-LTE is driven by one compelling reality. Because it can use unpaired spectrum, emerging and developing market operators could get lots more capacity into service at much-lower cost.

Since a single chipset apparently allows roaming between LTE FDD and TD-LTE networks, TD-LTE offers a more-affordable way to launch and operate a Long Term Evolution mobile network, while still offering roaming access to frequency-division LTE networks as well.

ZUMBEEL | Why The Sudden Interest In TD-LTE?

Netflix Faces Stiffer VODCompetition

Netflix faces competition in digital video-on-demand and pay-per-view offerings from players like Comcast, Time Warner Cable, DirecTV and Dish Network, according to analysts at Trefis. The reason is a
recent Federal Communications Commission decision allowing new films to be made available on-demand before such films are available on DVDs.

The FCC generally prohibits the use of so-called "selectable output control" technology, which encodes video programming with a signal to remotely disable set-top box output connections. But the FCC granted a waiver from those rules for Motion Picture Association of America members who want to protect copying of content if a new digital release window is created.

Allowing movie studios to temporarily prevent recording from TVs could pave the way for movies to be released to homes sooner than they are today. The FCC said the waiver is therefore in the public interest, because the studios are unlikely to offer new movies so soon after their theatrical release without such controls.

The FCC decision allows movie studios (like Paramount, 20th Century Fox, Disney Studios) to block analog signals on TVs and video recorders when consumers purchase their latest on-demand movies.

This decision was pushed for by Disney, Time Warner and Viacom to reduce the likelihood of content piracy, especially for new films where instances of piracy tend to be high. While this move gives movie studios more control over their content offering, it also gives a boost to cable providers that compete with Netflix to deliver the latest films to consumers, Trefis argues.

Will Common Carrier Regulation Lead to De Fato Price Regulation?

The Federal Communications Commission says it has no interest in applying price controls to broadband access services. But even if formal rules are not imposed, some executives believe de facto price controls are the logical consequence of any move to regulate broadband access as a common carrier service.

At a minimum, any such rules are likely to immediately slow investment in broadband facilities for years.

The last time the Federal Communications Commission altered fundamental rules in the common carrier area,  AT&T cut annual capital spending by more than half, from $12 billion to $5 billion dollars a year. That cut lasted for four years, until the courts threw out the FCC's mandatory wholesale rules, which created pricing rules service providers found highly damaging, says Dennis Kneale, CNBC media and technology editor.

This time around, the rules might affect a wider range of industry suppliers, including cable and wireless providers, with potentially much-greater damages.

The last time the FCC tried such a major incursion, in the mid-1990s, Stephenson, then the company’s chief financial officer, cut annual capital spending by more than half, from $12 billion to $5 billion dollars a year. That cut lasted for four years, until the courts threw out the FCC mandatory wholesale rules.

Some telecom execs say the FCC’s agenda is downright radical and could thwart high hopes for the wireless Internet, arguably key to the future of the entire U.S. communications industry.

The agency assault could restack the pecking order of winners and losers and reshape their stock prices, affecting the portfolios of millions of retirees and investors as well, says Kneale.

The immediate matter at hand is a prohibition on any type of packet prioritization. But at least some telecom execs also fear this would lead to de facto price controls, primarily because inability to prioritze packets would jeopardize the effort to create enhanced and new services that provide quality of service mechanisms of the sort businesses routinely use.

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8 Liberal Groups Skeptical About Common Carrier Regulation of Broadband

Eight liberal advocacy groups signaled skepticism with a Federal Communications Commission plan for regulating broadband access as a common carrier service.

In a letter to Senate Commerce Chairman John Rockefeller (D-W.V.) and House Energy and Commerce Chairman Henry Waxman (D-Calif.), eight groups called for Congress to restore FCC authority over broadband after an April appeals court ruling appeared to undercut the commission's authority.

The Communications Workers of America, the Minority Media and Telecom Council, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, the League of United Latin American Citizens, the National Urban League, the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People and the Sierra Club signed the letter.

Doubts about reclassification stem from the possibility that it could complicate the regulatory situation and lead to protracted litigation, according to CWA spokeswoman Debbie Goldman.

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Telstra Agrees to Structural Separation

Australia will join Singapore and likely New Zealand as countries in which there is a single wholesale provider of broadband connections and all retail providers lease capacity from the wholesale provider.

Telstra Corp. essentially has agreed to break itself up into distince retail and wholesale companies as the result of a new deal with Australia’s national government. A new framework agreed upon by both the government and Telstra, essentially results in Telstra selling its network to the government-backed NBN Co, which is building the new national broadband network, and putting its customer traffic on the network as well.

The new framework, which still must be ratified by a formal contract, a "yes" vote by Telstra shareholders, and approval by regulators, will launch Telstra on a new path. It essentially will not own and operate its own fixed networks any longer. It will not be required to provide universal service.

And it likely will be a much-bigger player in the fourth-generation mobile business than it is in the fixed business.

Telstra will be paid A$9 billion as part of the deal, which remains only a framework, not a contract, which will have to be worked out over the next few months. The deal also means Telstra is free to bid on new wireless spectrum, and can keep its 50-percent stake in cable operator Foxtel.

As part of the agreement, the NBN Co. will be able to use Telstra infrastructure, including ducts and backhaul fiber, rather than building duplicate infrastructure. Telstra also agreed to transition its current customers to the NBN network, becoming an anchor tenant.

NBN Co will operate as the wholesale supplier of last resort for fiber connections in greenfield developments starting January 1, 2011.

Telstra also will be shutting down its copper ADSL network as part of the new agreement.

A new entity, USO Co Ltd, will be established to take over Telstra’s universal service obligations starting July 1, 2012.

The terms of the lease were not disclosed but sources close to the negotiations told AAP the agreement was for a period much longer than 10 years.

Telstra and the government have been at odds about the  A$43 billion "fiber-to-the-home" broadband network, and the necessity of Telstra agreeing to at least a functional serparation of its wholesale and retail operations.

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