Monday, October 25, 2010

WiMAX and LTE Aren't "4G," Says ITU

Neither current versions of WiMax nor Long-Term Evolution currently are "4G (fourth-generation)" technologies. according to the International Telecommunication Union Radiocommunication Sector (ITU-R).

In the future, carriers will have to use "LTE-Advanced" and "WirelessMAN-Advanced" ITU standards. The latter, moreover well known as IEEE 802.16m, will form the basement of WiMax Release 2.

It is doubtful any consumers actually care, or that service providers will stop deploying networks now, using platforms that can upgrade to the full standard, without waiting for full compliance. Markets are moving way too fast for that.

Social Media and Branding


Social media increasingly is seen as an imperative channel for larger brands and companies. Social media also relies heavily on mobile access and devices, so there may well be opportunities for mobile network service providers, not just app providers. 

Mortgaging the Future

Whatever one thinks about the trend, there is a reason the Tea Party movement has grown, even why so much of its leadership and constituency consists of "moms."

Contrary to conventional wisdom that stipulates politics is about self interest, moms and parents tend to be quite sensitive to any threats to their children. And to an under-appreciated extent, the Tea Party is concerned about the future their children will face, not the present circumstances adults now face, as difficult as those circumstances are.

And there are threats for the upcoming generations. Most of us do not question the value of higher education. But there are clear signs the financial returns now are more suspect than has been the case, and that our national commitment to supporting such access is likewise in danger. That has direct implications for social mobility.

"It will take decades to calculate the damage caused by the Great Recession, but there is little doubt that even those lucky enough to have jobs are struggling. For young people starting their careers, that is especially the case."

Two-thirds (65.6%) of undergraduate students in four-year programs graduating in the 2007-2008 school year had some debt, according to FinAid.org. The average student loan debt among graduating seniors was $23,186. One quarter borrowed $30,526 or more and one-tenth borrowed $44,668 or more. Graduates of graduate and professional schools often face six figures in debt.

Should the link between higher education and earnings become significantly non-linear, or should costs continue to increase at current rates, children will not have as much potential to change their circumstances as Americans historically have felt was part of the "American Dream."

Some issues are more political than others. But some issues are foundational. The level of pension debt for local and state government, or the value and accessibility of higher education, are among them. Both issues threaten a parents' sense of opportunities for their children. That's a much more powerful motivator of behavior than has been present in American politics for some time, perhaps for the first time in such a palpable way.

Internet TV and The Death of Cable TV

Lots of people believe video distribution is going to change, and the only question is how long it will take. Some think the important thing is the number of alternative venues now available, or which will likely be made available, to view professionally-produced content users now associate with "cable TV."

All you need to know is what the content owners want to do, and when.

The networks aren’t blocking Google TV access to content because Google is uniquely disruptive. They are blocking Google TV access to network content because "web TV" economics likely would be incredibly disruptive to the current business.

Content owners want preservation of existing revenue streams--at least the magnitude of those streams--as "over the top" delivery modes develop. One might question whether that is possible, but there is no question the networks will attempt to maintain the existing business practices to the greatest extent possible.

Cable, for its part, claims the lowest-possible distribution cost, from an end-use standpoint. The objection many users will have is that the cost to deliver programming that is not wanted is not the important metric. What matters is the cost to view only the content any single viewer wants to watch.

The key is what content owners are willing to accept.

Will Car Rentals Be In The Future Of Automaker - 24/7 Wall St.

Business model and industry disruption does not always come from upstarts. Sometimes it can come from established players in the legacy system.

Consider how the world of car driving would change a great deal if vehicle manufacturers began to compete against rental companies, which are the auto companies’ largest customers.

BMW will begin to rent cars in Germany. The luxury manufacturer knows that not everyone can afford an expensive car and that other people do not need to own a car because they drive too infrequently.

Detroit will be tempted to follow BMW’s lead. Car sales in the US have barely recovered from last year, which means that they are at terribly depressed levels compared to 2005 and 2006. American manufactures have slashed their employees and factory operations, but the US market is crowded and new competitors such as Hyundai occasionally are successful at their expense.

U.S. Mobile Ad Forecasts: Take Your Pick

Analysts at Borrell Associates admit they are "shocked" by their own analysis of mobile ad growth in the U.S. market, but stand by their forecasts.

Most other researchers take a more "linear" view.

Most new markets grow in a linear fashion until an inflection point, and then growth goes parabolic.

The issue is how soon an inflection point is reached. Borrell Associates obviously believes we are closer to an inflection point than nearly all other observers.

see more here

Mark Cuban Warns of Sharply Higher Broadband Access Fees

Count Mark Cuban as among those who expects broadband access fees to grow significantly as video streaming becomes a mainstream business model and experience.

Ironically, those fee increases will occur as operators have to provision lots more bandwidth and as users begin to cut back on legacy distribution such as cable TV, satellite TV or telco TV subscriptions.

"Expect your Internet bills to go way way up as ISPs make it clear that all this video over the internet is going to require billions in upgrades," says Cuban. "The irony is that while you may not like paying for cable channels you don’t watch, you will end up paying for cable channels on the Internet that you don’t watch as well."

"In this case you will be paying via higher net bills for the extra bandwidth required to stream cable channels that your neighbors like to watch," Cuban argues.

One might argue that is a good thing for service providers, as it will allow them to raise rates in a business where rates generally have dropped. It arguably will help access providers rebuild their business models from services based on voice or multichannel video entertainment.

The issue is that consumers likely will stubbornly resist such rate increases, especially if they keep shifting expenditure into wireless services. Not to mention a bigger version of a broadband problem ISPs have faced for some time.

Many ISPs have found that profit margins on broadband services do not scale in a linear way: prices per Mbps of service produce slimmer profit as the amount of bandwidth provisioned increases.

Also, the incremental revenue from investing in lots more access bandwidth is likely to be slim to non-existent. Cable operators will have to boost capacity to provide broadband-based video, even as they lose revenue from legacy video services.

Telcos faced a variant of this problem when they upgraded to broadband, and found that entertainment video was the only big "new" service they could offer, as the older copper network worked fine, or well enough, for voice and broadband access.

On the Use and Misuse of Principles, Theorems and Concepts

When financial commentators compile lists of "potential black swans," they misunderstand the concept. As explained by Taleb Nasim ...