Monday, October 25, 2010

Mortgaging the Future

Whatever one thinks about the trend, there is a reason the Tea Party movement has grown, even why so much of its leadership and constituency consists of "moms."

Contrary to conventional wisdom that stipulates politics is about self interest, moms and parents tend to be quite sensitive to any threats to their children. And to an under-appreciated extent, the Tea Party is concerned about the future their children will face, not the present circumstances adults now face, as difficult as those circumstances are.

And there are threats for the upcoming generations. Most of us do not question the value of higher education. But there are clear signs the financial returns now are more suspect than has been the case, and that our national commitment to supporting such access is likewise in danger. That has direct implications for social mobility.

"It will take decades to calculate the damage caused by the Great Recession, but there is little doubt that even those lucky enough to have jobs are struggling. For young people starting their careers, that is especially the case."

Two-thirds (65.6%) of undergraduate students in four-year programs graduating in the 2007-2008 school year had some debt, according to FinAid.org. The average student loan debt among graduating seniors was $23,186. One quarter borrowed $30,526 or more and one-tenth borrowed $44,668 or more. Graduates of graduate and professional schools often face six figures in debt.

Should the link between higher education and earnings become significantly non-linear, or should costs continue to increase at current rates, children will not have as much potential to change their circumstances as Americans historically have felt was part of the "American Dream."

Some issues are more political than others. But some issues are foundational. The level of pension debt for local and state government, or the value and accessibility of higher education, are among them. Both issues threaten a parents' sense of opportunities for their children. That's a much more powerful motivator of behavior than has been present in American politics for some time, perhaps for the first time in such a palpable way.

No comments:

Costs of Creating Machine Learning Models is Up Sharply

With the caveat that we must be careful about making linear extrapolations into the future, training costs of state-of-the-art AI models hav...