Twitter Illustrates Pareto Distribution

The "long tail" distribution is a standard Pareto distribution, popularly thought of as the "80/20" rule, where a disproportionate share of just about anything comes from a fraction of the causes.

Twitter followers in December 2010 show a clear Pareto distribution, as do people that Twitter users "follow."

The clear implication for things such as market share in any sphere of business will also have a Pareto distribution.

The implications for businesses and organizations that use Twitter as a social tool is that, in all likelihood, modest expectations should be watchword. It is highly unlikely most companies and organizations will ever appear at the head of the tail. Those spots normally are held by celebrities of one sort or another.

That isn't a reason not to use Twitter, just a reminder to be realistic about expectations.

Stuxnet an Instance of Cyber War?

Damage from the Stuxnet virus has apparently set back the Iranian nuclear program by as much as two years, according to a German security expert interviewed by the Jerusalem Post, and may be an instance of cyber warfare.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=199475

Stuxnet is a Windows-specific computer worm first discovered in July 2010 by a security firm based in Belarus, according to Wikipedia. While it is not the first time that hackers have targeted industrial systems, it is the first discovered worm that spies on and reprograms industrial systems.

It is said to have been specifically written to attack Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition systems used to control and monitor industrial processes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet

Stuxnet includes the capability to reprogram Programmable Logic Controllers and hide its changes.The worm's probable target is said to have been high value infrastructures in Iran using Siemens control systems.

Stuxnet apparently as effective as a military strike

Will 2011 Be Decisive for Clearwire?

Among the wireless issues to watch in 2011 is what happens with Clearwire. Though in principle the company could go bankrupt if it does not raise some billions of additional funding later in 2011, a more-reasonable bet might be some "change of control" event.

Clearwire could, in principle, be bought, merge with another firm or perhaps even become a firm without a full national footprint. The last option would be complicated, but might involve Clearwire selling off assets in markets it has not built, or finished building, to another firm that would finish the construction. That would seem the least likely of all outcomes, though.

Seybold's Take: What's ahead for wireless in 2011? - FierceWireless

Mobile Charges Based on Time and Apps?

In principle, there is no reason broadband access plans cannot be created for a few favored applications, perhaps Facebook, for example. Jonathon Gordon, Allot Networks marketing director, sees no reason why mobile operators could not create such plans, much as they offer specific plans for text messaging, rather than full access to the mobile web.

Application-focused packages might allow users to buy more-modest mobile broadband plans specifically oriented to a few, or just one, lead application.

Coming: Mobile Charges Based on Time and Apps - BusinessWeek

Mobile Commerce Cuts Both Ways

Retailers and others in the mobile ecosystem think mobile commerce has lots of potential, in lots of different ways. But mobile commerce cuts two ways. It might prove advantageous for retailers in some ways, and a bit of a threat in other ways.

Until recently, retailers could reasonably assume that if they just lured shoppers to stores with enticing specials, the customers could be coaxed into buying more profitable products as well. The "loss leader" technique perhaps does not work so well when a shopper can do price comparisons using a mobile device, while still inside a store.

Now, marketers must contend with shoppers who can use their smartphones inside stores to check whether the specials are really so special, and if the rest of the merchandise is reasonably priced.

'The retailer's advantage has been eroded,' says Greg Girard of consultancy IDC Retail Insights, which recently found that roughly 45 percent of customers with smartphones had used them to perform due diligence on a store's prices.

Phone-Wielding Shoppers Strike Fear Into Retailers - WSJ.com (subscription required)

MMS Campaigns Get Most Views on Verizon

About 37 percent of multimedia messaging service ads sent out during the third quarter of 2010 were viewed on the Verizon Wireless network, Mogreet says. About 31 percent were viewed on the AT&T network.

T-Mobile got 13 percent of views, while Sprint users represented 11 percent of views. Perhaps the results are not too surprising, as Verizon has the most customers, overall, followed by AT&T. Given that Apple iPhone users tend to view the most mobile display ads, though, the findings suggest that user behavior on other devices is significantly different. MMS might be a way to reach users of other devices with rich media or graphically-oriented messages.

Mogreet Releases Q3 2010 Mobile Marketing Analytics Report

T-Mobile USA, Nokia Siemens Networks Working on 650 Mbps HSPA

Mobile service providers would be able to achieve peak data rates of more than 650 megabits per second using a proposed HSPA standard supported by T-Mobile USA and Nokia Siemens Networks.

"Long Term HSPA Evolution" would improve mobile broadband with speeds matching those promised by LTE Advanced. T-Mobile USA and Nokia Siemens Networks are driving the technology’s standardization aiming to make it available for commercial deployment by 2013.

The proposed standard would boost bandwidth by allowing use of multiple frequency bands, creating larger channels and hence faster access. The standard might give T-Mobile USA, for example, more opportunity to upgrade its existing HSPA+ network for faster speeds, without requiring a switch to LTE Advanced.

Still, T-Mobile USA might require more spectrum, some of which it might be able to reclaim from frequencies now used to support voice operations on its GSM ntworks.

T-Mobile USA, Nokia Siemens Networks drive evolution of HSPA | Nokia Siemens Networks