T-Mobile USA to Buy Clearwire Spectrum?

Deutsche Telekom AG’s T-Mobile USA unit, which badly needs new spectrum to build its own Long Term Evolution network, may be close to a deal to buy wireless spectrum from Clearwire Corp., Businessweek reports.

T-Mobile USA is the only potential bidder and the sale of the spectrum could happen by the end of the first quarter, Businessweek says. That there is only one bidder speaks to the lack of demand for the excess spectrum Clearwire wants to auction off.

Also, T-Mobile USA has just activated an HSPA+ network that actually will run as fast, and in some cases faster, than other 4G networks. T-Mobile USA doesn't need the spectrum "immediately."

Deutsche Telekom Said to Be Closer to Clearwire Deal - Businessweek

Video Cord Cutting Now a Global Phenomenon

Video cord-cutting now is a global phenomenon, according to Informa Telecoms & Media. But U.S. consumers are disproportionately represented, 36 percent of all global video cord cutters are in the United States. But the revenue impact so far has been quite limited, and the total numbers are small in relation to the base of video subscribers.

Informa estimates that there were 1.2 million "cord-cutters" who have canceled their multichannel video subscriptions in favor of over-the-top video alternatives  in 2010, equivalent to just 0.18% of the multichannel video subscriber base. See more detail here.

"While the impact of cord-cutting on pay TV has been extremely limited to date, this will change as OTT services will continue to improve and become increasingly attractive," said Adam Thomas,  Informa Telecoms & Media senior analyst.

The number of cord cutters will grow to 16.1 million in 2015, the firm says. That's about two percent of the total pay TV subscriber base," said Thomas.

There are about 426,000) video cord cutters in the United States, about 395,000 in Europe, 251,000 in the Asia and Pacific region and 113,000 in the rest of the world. It is possible that less developed markets could ultimately be most vulnerable to the allure of OTT, as several of these markets are characterized by higher broadband penetration than that of multichannel video service penetration.

"We are already seeing significant numbers of cord-cutters in China, as households are attracted away from cable and IPTV by OTT services such as Tudou and Youku," said Thomas.

Overall, Informa does not seem to expect a massive disruption of the linear video business anytime soon, despite the growing expectation in many quarters that this will be the case.

Motorola Inventory Management on a Mobile

An Experiment In Cord Cutting from Hill Holliday on Vimeo.
Global Bay created the app.

People May Want to "Cut the Cord," But Can They?

An Experiment In Cord Cutting from Hill Holliday on Vimeo.
In the case of the "typical end user," video cord cutting seems to be more of a barrier than some might think.

$25.6 Trillion Telecom Industry Revenue in 2016? Absolutely No Way

Insight Research predicts that wireless revenues will jump from 60 percent of all telecommunications services in 2008 to 72 percent in 2013, which amounts to a 14.4 percent compound annual growth rate.

The Asia-Pacific region will experience the highest growth rate in the next five years, at nearly 16 percent, led by China and India. The telecom sector in Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 12 percent.

Insight Research also apparently believes telecommunications services revenues on a worldwide basis will grow at a compounded rate of nine percent over the next five years, bringing the sum spent globally on telecommunications to $25.6 trillion, a figure that some will consider wildly optimistic. If one counts all sorts of activities that have some relationship to communications (voice and data), plus all video entertainment, plus the value of data networking services and products, one likely could get to a number that big. See http://www.zimbio.com/New+York+News/articles/rbJJYS2aT3r/Insight+Research+Worldwide+Telecom+Industry.

But service provider revenues will not reach anywhere close to that figure. Global telecom services revenue reached $1.5 trillion in 2006, for example. To the end of 2011, growth is projected to slow to a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2 percent. See http://www.prlog.org/11216402-global-telecom-market-status-and-forecast-2006-2011.html.

Assume for the sake of argument that the $1.5 trillion 2006 figure was correct. An eight-percent annual growth rate would result in global revenue of $2.2 trillion by the end of 2011. Or assume a baseline of $2 trillion in 2006, a figure that might be considered on the high side for that time period.

That would result in a global market of $2.9 trillion. I do not have access to the full methodology used by Insight Research, but the forecast of $25.6 trillion seems off by an order of magnitude, which means the researchers are including all sorts of other revenue streams arguably related to communications.

In fact, Insight Research's own 2009 forecast of global communications revenue projected "worldwide revenues are predicted to grow from under $1.7 trillion in 2008 to over $2.7 trillion in 2013." See http://www.insight-corp.com/ExecSummaries/review09ExecSum.pdf.

Research companies change methodologies from time to time. Obviously something major has changed in that regard. The new forecasts absolutely cannot reflect service provider revenues alone. But one might ask whether such major "lumping" of multiple revenue sources from multiple industries actually provides much analytical clarity.

Telecom outlook 2011 Gartner

Mobile Augmented Reality: A Small Business by 2015

Mobile augmented reality applications and services will generate global revenues close to $1.5 billion by 2015, according to Juniper Research.

Of course, to keep things in perspective, consider that global ad spending is something on the order of $500 billion. See http://adage.com/mediaworks/article?article_id=147493, for example.

The installed base of AR-capable smartphones had increased from eight million in 2009 to more than 100 million in 2010. At the same time, AR apps that initially were the preserve of smaller development companies and researchers at technological institutes, are starting to get some use from larger brands.

Mobile Augmented Reality Attracts Leading Brands as Juniper Research forecasts $1.5 billion revenue stream by 2015:

Africa Mobile Advertising Grows19% Growth |in 90 Days

Mobile advertising views grew nearly 19 percent in just 90 days, says InMobi, breaking the three-billion impressions mark to reach 3.3 billion monthly impressions. Smartphones remain relatively nascent in the market, and 88 percent of all mobile ad impressions are on advanced feature phones.

Nokia strengthens its’ already dominant market position by gaining 2.7 share points. About two out of every three ad impressions in the region occur on Nokia devices.

InMobi report for Africa shows a further 19% growth