You may remember the "Negroponte Switch," the notion that broadband services formerly provided "over the air" are moving to fixed network delivery, while narrowband services formerly provided by fixed networks are moving to wireless delivery.

The idea is over a decade old, but still resonates, with the added observation that video and broadband services also are moving to virtually all devices connected to the network.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negroponte_switch for background on the idea.

Still, some of the major business implications are becoming clear enough for some startling new predictions. PRTM, for example, now argues that, over the next decade, mobile networks will become the providers of "universal service," while fixed networks become specialist providers of video and broadband services, much as the Negroponte Switch" a decade ago would have predicted.

There are all sorts of implications. Fixed-line providers are going to have to work hard to ensure a significant role for themselves in the fixed-line broadband ecosystem, since so many broadband-based applications can be delivered "over the top."

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Submarine Cable Refresh Cycle Approaches

With the caveat that "where" a fiber or cable is makes a huge difference, we are approaching a couple-year period where existing cables laid 10 to 12 years ago will reach 50 percent of capacity.

That will be a trigger for laying replacement cables.

If you assume a 20-year useful life for new optical fibers put into service, then irrespective of loading, service providers would have to begin thinking about replacement as a matter of course.

Some suppliers will argue they can enhance the useful life of such fibers. Susan Vandament, XK director of business development, for example, says her firm has tested older fibers and found its gear could boost performance above what one might expect. If that proves to be the case for older cables, submarine cable network providers might squeeze a bit more life out of existing cables.

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SuperBowl Ad Strategy Still Works, Groupon Finds

Produce an ad you are fairly certain to be rejected. Get word of mouth about the rejected ad. Get views. Don't pay $2.5 million to $2.8 million. In this case, Groupon itself says it "rejected" the ad. It's the same concept.

Nexus X Tablet Boot-Up Screen

Not a suggestion you buy a tablet device for the boot-up screen. But it won't hurt, either. And here's a bit more detail on the new Android tablet operating system, "Honeycomb."

Starbucks Mobile Payment System Didn't Use NFC for a Reason

Technology decisions ought to be dictated by business requirements, and so should the timing of technology investments. Generally speaking, if a business can wait for the "next generation" of technology, it often should do so. If it cannot wait, and has an immediate business need, it should buy the existing solutions, especially if there is an upgrade path.

The Starbucks mobile-payment app, now available for iPhones, the iPod Touch and several BlackBerry models, is based on the coffee chain’s popular prepaid Starbucks Card, and is an example of that sort of process. You might wonder why Starbucks would deploy a 2D bar code solution now, when it could wait 18 months to two years and possibly use a new system based on one or more near field communications platforms.

The answer is that Starbucks did not think it could afford to wait. Nor, in one respect, is the Starbucks mobile payment system primarily about "payment." It is about loyalty, especially the Starbucks card.

Customers use the private-label card for one in five transactions at Starbucks coffee shops and last year loaded $1.5 billion in their card accounts, up more than 20 percent from 2009, said the company. Since the mobile payment app is linked to the Starbucks card, and since the Starbucks card itself if more about loyalty than "payment" as such, Starbucks is betting that the chance to extend its loyalty program to the mobile handset is worth doing right away.

Not unimportant is the fact that 2D bar codes can be used by a wide range of handsets, while near field communications is only now starting to be introduced. In a scale business, the advantage of large installed base is obvious. So is the fact that the terminal upgrades at roughly 8,000 locations are modest.

With the app, after the customer scans the 2-D bar code at the point of sale, Starbucks deducts the amount of the purchase from his Starbucks Card account over the network.

The physical implementation might not be the most elegant imaginable (one has to have a physical Starbucks card first, and you have to obtain one physically, at a store), but that was not apparently the most-important consideration. Speed to market, low cost and ubiquity seem to have been the overriding considerations.

Starbucks’ Bar-Code Embrace Unlikely to Slow NFC

Mobile Shoppers: Some Prefer Apps, Some Mobile Web

Even though half of all mobile phone owners are mobile shoppers, they are not all equal. A very small group are actually driving the majority of mobile shopping. In fact, that group – dubbed “heavy mobile users”-- generate ten times more shopping than “light users.” See Retail's BIG Blog | Three tips for marketing to the mobile shopper

Heavy shoppers tend to do things like check store hours and addresses, use shopping apps weekly, and experiment with new mobile marketing technology in greater numbers and more frequently than other shoppers. They also skew younger, male and toward using the iPhone.

Light shoppers, by contrast, skew female and are more likely to use other devices such as Android and BlackBerry phones, according to an Arc Worldwide survey.

UK Telco O2 Will Become a "Bank"

Telefonica O2 UK plans to launch a number of mobile-wallet services in the second half of 2011, among the most significant a move to become a "bank" of sorts, or perhaps the equivalent of a credit card or debit card issuer.

Among the wallet services O2 plans to offer will be contact-less payment that could include one or more payment applications the telco issues itself. But O2, one of the United Kingdom’s largest mobile operators with more than 20 million subscribers, plans a number of other services, including mobile browsing and product search, mobile-money transfers between subscribers and bill payments.

UK Telco O2 Prepares For Bigger Push into Payments Business | NFC Times – Near Field Communication and all contactless technology