You may remember the "Negroponte Switch," the notion that broadband services formerly provided "over the air" are moving to fixed network delivery, while narrowband services formerly provided by fixed networks are moving to wireless delivery.

The idea is over a decade old, but still resonates, with the added observation that video and broadband services also are moving to virtually all devices connected to the network.

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negroponte_switch for background on the idea.

Still, some of the major business implications are becoming clear enough for some startling new predictions. PRTM, for example, now argues that, over the next decade, mobile networks will become the providers of "universal service," while fixed networks become specialist providers of video and broadband services, much as the Negroponte Switch" a decade ago would have predicted.

There are all sorts of implications. Fixed-line providers are going to have to work hard to ensure a significant role for themselves in the fixed-line broadband ecosystem, since so many broadband-based applications can be delivered "over the top."

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