Google Faces Antitrust Scrutiny, Will Apple Be Next?

AT&T isn't the only major player facing a direct limitation on its ability to grow much bigger in its core markets. Google might be next. Google CEO Eric Schmidt will face a U.S. Senate hearing on Sept. 21, 2011 looking at whether the company is now so large and dominant that it now constitutes a monopoly.

The primary issue in this hearing is whether Google gives preference to its own websites or products in search results. History suggests Google might be a turning point of sorts.

In March 1998, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates faced a similar hearing. Two months later Microsoft was served with an antitrust suit, the effects of which only fully ended in 2010, some would argue. That's more than a decade of handcuffs.

A rational observer with a sense of history might wonder when it will be Apple's turn to meet the regulatory buzzsaw. Sooner or later, big and powerful technology and application companies run into the reality of government regulation. Telcos just are more used to it.

Google facing antitrust limits

Google Launches Wallet on Sprint

Google has released the first version of the Google Wallet app to Sprint. That means the Google Wallet app will be pushed to all Sprint Nexus S 4G phones through an over-the-air update. The app will be shown as“Wallet.”

Netflix Separates DVD, Streaming Businesses

It is hard to know for sure, but it is possible the recent bankruptcy of Borders bookstore might have played some role in convincing Netflix CEO Reed Hastings to move up the speed of the Netflix transition from DVD rental to streaming.

Netflix long has planned for such a move, but it is conceivable that the Borders bankruptcy, and clear sluggishness at Best Buy, could have convinced Netflix to move faster.

 Add new fourth generation wireless networks, tablet demand and faster uptake of smart phones and one can argue the business background for streaming is changing.

One also might note that creating a separate Qwikster business makes it easier to sell the whole DVD business, if desired.

Netflix steps up streaming effort

33% Of All Groupon Clones Have Been Shut Down Or Sold

One of the most common Groupon critiques is that the business is easily replicated. Yes, some might say, there are few barriers to entry. But there appear to be many barriers to success.

According to data from deals aggregator Yipit, 33 percent of daily deals sites have been shuttered or sold so far in 2011. That's 170 out of 530 deals sites overall. Growing operating costs appear to be an issue. 

Groupon spent about $7.99 to acquire each subscriber who actually redeemed a daily deal in the first quarter of 2010, according to regulatory filings. By the second quarter of 2011, that figure had nearly tripled to $23.46.

Overall, Groupon spent $378.7 million in marketing initiatives in the first half of 2011, up from $35.5 million in the same period a year earlier, according to regulatory filings. Many smaller websites don't have the war chest to compete, you might surmise.

At the same time, daily-deal sites also increasingly have to hire more salespeople to line up coupon offers from local merchants. Operating costs grow

Yes, there are few barriers to entry, but there appear to be significant barriers to success.

33% Of All Groupon Clones Have Been Shut Down Or Sold

The Voice Revenue Problem

Only 70 percent of households in Marshall County, Indiana have landlines in 2011, a figure that is expected to decrease to 50 percent in the next two years. That statistic is one important facet of the voice services business: people simply are starting to use their mobile devices as their primary “phones.”

The other important angle is less usage of voice communications overall, on both mobile and fixed connections. According to Nielsen, the average number of mobile phone calls we make is dropping every year, after hitting a peak in 2007. And our calls are getting shorter: In 2005 they averaged three minutes in length; now they’re almost half that.

Also, in part because of the prevalence of VoIP services, unit prices are under pressure. Servive provider executives are no dummies. They know all that, and already are moving ahead with initiatives that will replace lost revenue and still provide a growth path.

But there are lots of thorny, practical issues. Consider investment. How much should a rational executive invest in a declining business? How much should it try to innovate? What is the balance between support for growing businesses and networks, and declining businesses? When does network investment become stranded? What should executives do about all that?

The Voice Revenue Problem

AT&T Approaches Rivals to Save T-Mobile Bid

AT&T is approaching smaller rivals including MetroPCS Communications and Leap Wireless International to sell spectrum and subscribers as part of an attempt to save its $39 billion takeover of T-Mobile USA Inc., Bloomberg reports.



AT&T has also reached out to CenturyLink, Dish Network and Sprint Nextel Corp. to gauge their interest in buying assets, Bloomberg says.



Some may question the viability of those remedies, if the Department of Justice objection really is that the acquisition violates the concentration index it routinely uses.



One of the ways to measure market concentration is the Heffindahl-Hirshman Index or HHI, often used as a measure of market concentration. The HHI is the square of the percentage market share of each firm summed over the largest 50 firms in a market. Here is the pre-merger market HHI which already suggests that the market is uncompetitive. HHI is the problem


For some of us who just want a quick rule of thumb that tells you when there is potential antitrust concern, 30 percent market share tends to work.That has been the figure cable TV executives in the United States have worried about, and which the Federal Communication Commission at one point set as the limit of subscriber market share for any U.S. cable operator. Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless already have market share that exceeds that figure.




The Justice Department will generally investigate any merger of firms in a market where the HHI exceeds 1,000 and will very likely challenge any merger if the HHI is greater than 1,800. With a HHI over 2,300 any deal will be heavily scrutinized and most likely rejected. Even a merger between T-Mobile USA and Sprint, with a resulting 28 percent market share, would probably not be allowed on the same antitrust grounds.

U.S. Carrier Market Concentration based on Subscribers
Company	Pre-MergerMarket Share	MarketShareSquared
Sprint Nextel	17%	412.3106
Verizon	34%	583.0952
AT &T	31%	556.7764
T-Mobile USA	11%	331.6625
MetroPCS	3%	173.2051
Leap Wireless	2%	141.4214
U.S. Cellular	2%	141.4214
Herfindahl-Hirshman Index	2339.8925

It isn’t clear how much of T-Mobile USA AT&T can shed to satisfy DoJ that there is not an HHI problem, because, by definition, AT&T already has an HHI problem. 


If the issue is the HHI, some divestitures won't help. HHI is the issue


Oddly enough, even the oft-suggested merger of Sprint and T-Mobile USA might now be impossible for regulatory reasons, and that had not been among the big concerns observers have mentioned about that particular pairing. The big issues there were seen to be incompatible networks and the complexity of managing four air interfaces at a time. If DoJ sticks with the HHI test, regulatory approval would have to become the biggest obstacle.

AT&T Approaches Rivals to Save T-Mobile Bid

Google Wallet Launching September 19, 2011

Google Wallet, Google's mobile payment and daily deals service, will officially launch Sept. 19, 2011, TechCrunch says. Google Wallet lets you load your credit cards to its app and tap your NFC-enabled phone to a special reader to make purchases.

It also ties in Google Offers, Google's semi-new Groupon clone. That means whenever you buy a Google Offer from a local vendor, Google Wallet automatically factors in your discount when you make the purchase.

Google Wallet Launching September 19