Some would argue that a war over “interpersonal communications,” separate from the earlier messaging formats of email, instant messaging, chat and text messaging, is about to break out among three of the over the top application platforms, namely Google, Facebook and Apple.
For mobile service providers, that poses an issue, namely the future of their text messaging revenue streams, since historically mobile service providers have not make money directly from email or chat.
Facebook’s unified Chat / Messages / Email; Apple’s cross-device iMessage system and Google’s Gmail / GChat / Hangouts are something different, some would argue, as those platforms blend email, messaging chat and even video conferencing.
For mobile service providers, “how to compete” is the issue. A reasonable person might argue that no mobile service provider is fully equipped to compete in the “interpersonal communications” space dominated by those three application providers.
But mobile service providers can compete.
Wednesday, July 4, 2012
How Can Mobile Service Providers Compete with Facebook, Apple, Google "Messaging?"
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Video Audiences are Fragmenting
Men 18 to 34 are now spending more time streaming video than watching live TV, one third visit YouTube multiple times a day, half subscribe to a YouTube channel, and two thirds shared YouTube videos in the past week, according to Generation V, a YouTube study of consumer video trends.
The study also finds that 40 percent of women 25 to 49 have subscribed to a YouTube channel, half shared a video this past week, and one third regularly share online video with their kids or parents.
Those changes in viewership illustrate just one aspect of the range of underlying changes that are needed before over the top online video can seriously challenge traditional TV and subscription video services. There are many.
The study also finds that 40 percent of women 25 to 49 have subscribed to a YouTube channel, half shared a video this past week, and one third regularly share online video with their kids or parents.
Those changes in viewership illustrate just one aspect of the range of underlying changes that are needed before over the top online video can seriously challenge traditional TV and subscription video services. There are many.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
Would You Pay $600 for an Apple iPhone?
Leap Wireless and Virgin Mobile are betting that users will pay $500 to $600 for an Apple iPhone, at full retail prices. AT&T thinks they will not do so. It is possible, perhaps likely, that the actual answer will be that some users will do so, but that most will not want to do so.
The answer obviously matters greatly for Leap (Cricket) and Virgin Mobile, as well as for all other mobile service providers that clearly would prefer to reduce the amount of money they tie up in device subsidies.
Leap Wireless has committed to buy nearly $1 billion of iPhones over the next three years that it hopes to sell at a partially subsidized price of at least $400 for the iPhone 4 and $500 for the iPhone 4S.
BTIG Research believes that $200 will continue to be reasonable price point for high-end phones, though. If that proves to be true, Cricket and Virgin Mobile might take a hit to earnings, and mobile service providers will have to figure out some other way to attack the subsidy problem.
The answer obviously matters greatly for Leap (Cricket) and Virgin Mobile, as well as for all other mobile service providers that clearly would prefer to reduce the amount of money they tie up in device subsidies.
Leap Wireless has committed to buy nearly $1 billion of iPhones over the next three years that it hopes to sell at a partially subsidized price of at least $400 for the iPhone 4 and $500 for the iPhone 4S.
BTIG Research believes that $200 will continue to be reasonable price point for high-end phones, though. If that proves to be true, Cricket and Virgin Mobile might take a hit to earnings, and mobile service providers will have to figure out some other way to attack the subsidy problem.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
If Netflix Were a Cable Network, it Would be "the Most Viewed"
If Netflix were a subscription TV network, the amount of streaming conducted by Netflix users would make Netflix the most-watched subscription TV network, according to BTIG Research.
BTIG estimates that the "more than one billion hours" of streaming by Netflix customers in June 2012 would make Netflix the "most watched TV network overall including broadcast and cable.
In January 2012, BTIG noted that "Netflix streaming usage is exploding and is far, far bigger than traditional media executives give it credit for."
The "average" Netflix user now watches about 80 minutes of streamed content every day.
BTIG estimates that the "more than one billion hours" of streaming by Netflix customers in June 2012 would make Netflix the "most watched TV network overall including broadcast and cable.
In January 2012, BTIG noted that "Netflix streaming usage is exploding and is far, far bigger than traditional media executives give it credit for."
The "average" Netflix user now watches about 80 minutes of streamed content every day.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Only a Supremely Self-Confident Company Would Post its Competitors' Current Prices in Store: Best Buy Might Do So
How many companies do you know that would be willing to post their competitor's prices, on the same merchandise, inside the store?Best Buy might do so, suggesting that the company believes its prizes are close enough to Amazon that doing so will emphasize the value of shopping at Best Buy.
That points to an interesting perception problem Best Buy wants to overcome, namely that its prices "must be" higher than what is available online, and from online retailers such as Amazon.
That can lead to customer "showrooming," where consumers inspect merchandise at Best Buy and then purchase online.
That Best Buy might be willing to post current online prices indicates its belief that prices are competitive enough to allow it to do so.
Some observers already say Best Buy does offer prices that compare well or even better than the competition. Over the years, Best Buy has even considerably weakened Amazon’s sales tax advantage, the retail price advantage Amazon can offer in some states because it does not collect sales taxes.
Executive vice president Stephen Gillett, Best Buy’s new digital chief, recently told institutional investors the company might install screens throughout its stores that display real time prices on products offered by competitors like Wal-Mart and Amazon.
How many firms do you know of that would dare do such a thing?
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Tablets are Changing Content Consumption
“The rapid adoption of media tablets is substantively changing how consumers access, create and share content,” says Carolina Milanesi, Gartner research vice president. But some might argue that “content creation” is fairly limited to email messages, social network replies or other short messages.
A new survey by Gartner of users in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia found that the main activities moving from PCs to media tablets are checking email (81 percent of respondents), reading the news (69 percent), checking the weather forecast (63 percent), social networking (62 percent) and gaming (60 percent).
That probably illustrates as well as any statistic the key role tablets are assuming as primary content consumption devices, with the PC being used for “work” tasks related to creating more-complex content.
Media tablets also play a more dominant role in the home than mobile phones or PCs, with the highest usage taking place in the living room (87 percent), the bedroom (65 percent) and the kitchen (47 percent).
Respondents say they purchase a media tablet, in preference to a PC, for its convenience, small size and light weight.
The survey also found that 45 percent of respondents do not share their tablet at all. In other words, a tablet is almost as personal as a mobile phone in terms of usage and consumer attitude, for nearly half of users.
The respondents, early adopters of media tablets, said they use their multiple devices (PCs, TVs, mobile phones) interchangeably, rather than substituting one device for another. They use whichever device is at hand, or the most convenient to use at a particular time and for a specific task.
However, respondents use their PCs (desk-based or mobile) 20 percent less at weekends.
Overall, you might note that most consumer electronics devices these days are “consumption” devices (MP3 players, game players, tablets, smart phones, TVs) while a few devices (PCs, cameras) are mostly for content creation.
A new survey by Gartner of users in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia found that the main activities moving from PCs to media tablets are checking email (81 percent of respondents), reading the news (69 percent), checking the weather forecast (63 percent), social networking (62 percent) and gaming (60 percent).
That probably illustrates as well as any statistic the key role tablets are assuming as primary content consumption devices, with the PC being used for “work” tasks related to creating more-complex content.
Media tablets also play a more dominant role in the home than mobile phones or PCs, with the highest usage taking place in the living room (87 percent), the bedroom (65 percent) and the kitchen (47 percent).
Respondents say they purchase a media tablet, in preference to a PC, for its convenience, small size and light weight.
The survey also found that 45 percent of respondents do not share their tablet at all. In other words, a tablet is almost as personal as a mobile phone in terms of usage and consumer attitude, for nearly half of users.
The respondents, early adopters of media tablets, said they use their multiple devices (PCs, TVs, mobile phones) interchangeably, rather than substituting one device for another. They use whichever device is at hand, or the most convenient to use at a particular time and for a specific task.
However, respondents use their PCs (desk-based or mobile) 20 percent less at weekends.
Overall, you might note that most consumer electronics devices these days are “consumption” devices (MP3 players, game players, tablets, smart phones, TVs) while a few devices (PCs, cameras) are mostly for content creation.
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
Tablet Sales will Pass Notebooks in 2016
Tablet PCs, such as Apple’s iPad, are expected to be the growth driver for the mobile PC market over the next few years. In fact, tablet shipments will surpass notebook shipments in 2016, according to NPD.
Overall mobile PC shipments will grow from 347 million units in 2012 to over 809 million units by 2017.
Overall mobile PC shipments will grow from 347 million units in 2012 to over 809 million units by 2017.
While notebook PC shipments are expected to increase from 208 million units in 2012 to 393 million units by 2017, tablet PC shipments are expected to grow from 121 million units to 416 million units in this period, for a compound annual growth rate of 28 percent.
A key driver for tablet PC growth is adoption in mature markets (including North America, Japan and Western Europe), which will account for 66 percent of shipments in 2012 and remain in the 60 percent range throughout the forecast period.
Tablet PC shipments into mature markets will grow from 80 million units in 2012 to 254 million units by 2017, NPD predicts.
A key driver for tablet PC growth is adoption in mature markets (including North America, Japan and Western Europe), which will account for 66 percent of shipments in 2012 and remain in the 60 percent range throughout the forecast period.
Tablet PC shipments into mature markets will grow from 80 million units in 2012 to 254 million units by 2017, NPD predicts.
Figure 1: Worldwide Mobile PC Shipment Forecast (000s)
Figure 2: Emerging and Mature Market Tablet Shipments (000s)
Source: NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report
Gary Kim has been a digital infra analyst and journalist for more than 30 years, covering the business impact of technology, pre- and post-internet. He sees a similar evolution coming with AI. General-purpose technologies do not come along very often, but when they do, they change life, economies and industries.
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