Tablet Sales will Pass Notebooks in 2016

Tablet PCs, such as Apple’s iPad, are expected to be the growth driver for the mobile PC market over the next few years. In fact, tablet shipments will surpass notebook shipments in 2016, according to NPD.


Overall mobile PC shipments will grow from 347 million units in 2012 to over 809 million units by 2017.

While notebook PC shipments are expected to increase from 208 million units in 2012 to 393 million units by 2017, tablet PC shipments are expected to grow from 121 million units to 416 million units in this period, for a compound annual growth rate of 28 percent. 


A key driver for tablet PC growth is adoption in mature markets (including North America, Japan and Western Europe), which will account for 66 percent of shipments in 2012 and remain in the 60 percent range throughout the forecast period. 


Tablet PC shipments into mature markets will grow from 80 million units in 2012 to 254 million units by 2017, NPD predicts. 

Figure 1: Worldwide Mobile PC Shipment Forecast (000s)

Source: NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report

Figure 2: Emerging and Mature Market Tablet Shipments (000s)

Source: NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report