Smart Phone Sales Have Been a "Replacement" Market since Before 2010

Smart phone shipments have largely been a replacement market since at least 2010, when roughly two thirds of smart phones were shipped to users who were replacing a smart phone, rather than users who were getting a smart phone for the first time.

In facgt, NPD DisplaySearch has downgraded its 2012 forecast of new purchases from a range of 220 million to 230 million to the new estimate of 177 million. Those figures represent devices sold to new smart phone buyers. 

The volume of replacement phones sold to users who already have smart phones is expected to increase significantly, reaching 567 million in 2012, and nearly double that number by 2016, according to Hiroshi Hayase, NPD DisplaySearch VP.  

Smartphone Shipment Forecast

Source: NPD DisplaySearch Smartphones: Displays, Designs and Functionality

Google Announces Kansas City 1-Gbps Construction Schedule

The Google Fiber Blog now confirms that 180 fiberhoods throughout Kansas City will be wired with ultra high-speed Google Fiber, and also says that includes residents in 89 percent of Kansas City, Kan. and central Kansas City, Mo. fiberhoods.

The first fiberhood to receive Fiber will be Hanover Heights in Kansas City, Kan. Hanover Heights actually qualified within two hours of availability and presently has the highest percentage of homes within a neighborhood that are pre-registered to get Google Fiber. 

Google also now has a rough construction schedule. 

Google Announces Kansas City 1-Gbps Construction Schedule

The Google Fiber Blog now confirms that 180 fiberhoods throughout Kansas City will be wired with ultra high-speed Google Fiber, and also says that includes residents in 89 percent of Kansas City, Kan. and central Kansas City, Mo. fiberhoods.

The first fiberhood to receive Fiber will be Hanover Heights in Kansas City, Kan. Hanover Heights actually qualified within two hours of availability and presently has the highest percentage of homes within a neighborhood that are pre-registered to get Google Fiber. 

Google also now has a rough construction schedule. 

Isis Delays Launch, Again

Isis, the mobile payments venture owned by AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile USA, is delaying the launch of its mobile payments service for the second time this year, an Isis executive says. No reason was given for the delay. 

Some might speculate that Apple's decision not to support near field communications in the iPhone 5 is a factor for Isis. 

But Apple's "go slow" approach to mobile payments is not unusual. Apple wasn't the first firm to make a PC, wasn't the first to make an MP3 player or the first tablet or a smart phone. It still isn't immediately clear how mobile payments creates a huge new device market for Apple, and that tends to be the way Apple approaches new markets. 

Delays aren't unusual for large proposed mobile payment services. Telcos in the Netherlands have delayed their mobile payments launch as well. There also have been delays in  Australia, the United Kingdom and Singapore. 

There are plenty of other reasons for delay. Mobile payment is a complex ecosystem with uncertain value for many key participants in the ecosystem and lots of confusion about which consortia might emerge as clear winners. That Apple iPhones don't yet support NFC is but one of the problems. 

"Closed loop" systems that might work only at Home Depot or Starbucks, and do not require use of NFC or other relatively rare features, are logistically easier to launch, precisely because the universe of merchants, terminals, apps, payment processors, devices and users is contained. 

Where are Untapped Opportunities in E-Commerce?

James Slavet, of Greylock Partners, thinks there remain a few areas of the e-commerce space that remain undeveloped, including marketplaces, online to offline commerce (meaning transactions that take place in the physical world), and services that are “mobile-first” ways to find and book things like hotels, taxis, or send gifts and cards.

Of those three general areas of interest, mobile is directly involved with two of three, which explains the growing interest in mobile commerce, as distinct from simple mobile payment. 

Perhaps because there now seem to be many viable contestants in the mobile wallet and mobile payment areas, entrepreneurs seem to be shifting more in the direction of ways such mobile-first operations can change retail operating practices, the back office and supply chain, for example, or bridge the differences between offline and online commerce.

Amazon's new warehouse strategy, for example, which sites many more warehouses in many urban areas, could shift distribution in a powerful way, allowing one-day delivery in many cases, and even same-day in some instances. That would dramatically improve Amazon's competitive position, compared to place-based local retailers. Mobile can play a part, but more as the ordering front end. 

"Payment" and "wallet" are less strategic, in that view. 

Where are Untapped Opportunities in E-Commerce?

James Slavet, of Greylock Partners, thinks there remain a few areas of the e-commerce space that remain undeveloped, including marketplaces, online to offline commerce (meaning transactions that take place in the physical world), and services that are “mobile-first” ways to find and book things like hotels, taxis, or send gifts and cards.

Of those three general areas of interest, mobile is directly involved with two of three, which explains the growing interest in mobile commerce, as distinct from simple mobile payment. 

Perhaps because there now seem to be many viable contestants in the mobile wallet and mobile payment areas, entrepreneurs seem to be shifting more in the direction of ways such mobile-first operations can change retail operating practices, the back office and supply chain, for example, or bridge the differences between offline and online commerce.

Amazon's new warehouse strategy, for example, which sites many more warehouses in many urban areas, could shift distribution in a powerful way, allowing one-day delivery in many cases, and even same-day in some instances. That would dramatically improve Amazon's competitive position, compared to place-based local retailers. Mobile can play a part, but more as the ordering front end. 

"Payment" and "wallet" are less strategic, in that view. 

44% of Surveyed U.K. iPhone users want the new Apple iPhone 5

Apple iPhone owners tend to prefer sticking with the iPhone for their next device, virtually all studies show. So it is no surprise that 44 percent of U.K. iPhone users want the new Apple iPhone 5.

About 20 percent of all smart phone users in the survey said they wanted to upgrade to the new iPhone without needing any further information about the product.


At the same time, Samsung Galaxy users are just about as loyal as iPhone afficianados are, with only five percent saying they want to switch to the iPhone 5.

According to the research, the most popular feature on the iPhone 5 is likely to be its larger screen, described as the most appealing by 19 percent of respondents. The higher speed Internet access, making use of the new 4G mobile service which is being introduced to the UK, was cited by 17 percent of respondents as most appealing feature. But 39 percent also said none of the new features appealed to them.

Perhaps not so helpful for Apple were the 27 percent of the respondents who said the iPhone 5 had been over-hyped without anything exciting or innovative.