Value and Data Consumption are Not Closely Correlated, for Smart Phone Users

Though it is helpful in some ways to know how much total bandwidth is consumed from fixed devices, on fixed networks, compared to mobile devices on mobile networks, volume of data is not a reasonable proxy for value.

The reason is that the value of the mobile applications is very high, even if total consumed bandwidth is relatively low. And it appears the value of many different Internet applications is one reason so many people have embraced smart phones.

On the other hand, few of the popular activities really consume all that much bandwidth, and many of the activities have a real-time focus. The value comes largely from the context, the ability to get information immediately and use it to direct one's activities.

Chicago Issues RFI for Municipal Wi-Fi

The City of Chicago has issued a request for information for potential bidders on a new municipal Wi-Fi service that would serve public areas such as parks, and areas around research institutions, Chicago Business reports.  

The network does not appear to aim at providing service to residential consumers in the manner of high-speed access typically provided by cable companies and telephone companies, but is more a spot deployment more reminiscent of a competitive local exchange carrier network. 

At least so far, similar efforts have generally proven unworkable. 

Mobile Capital Investment Will Shift to Small Cells, but When?

Joe Madden of Mobile Experts thinks the global mobile service provider industry is about to enter a period where capital investment shifts to smaller cells. To be sure, 2012 seemed to see a waning of capital investment, with 12 percent lower RF transceiver shipments than 2011.

Madden says that fits a pattern of investment in transmission facilities that has been typical of second generation and third generation networks.

He calls the pattern a "two hump camel.” The first hump reflects the initial build. About four years later, those initial systems are upgraded with additional radio capacity and additional towers, and the second "hump" begins.

Of course, many service providers globally are on the cusp of major investments for Long Term Evolution. But global economic uncertainty appears to be causing a delay in capital investment, either in the form of additional 3G base stations or new LTE base stations, Madden argues.


The next big upsurge in investment will occur about 2014 or 2015, when consumers start to complain about performance. At that point, mobile service providers will turn to small cells for their 3G and LTE networks. Madden predicts more than nine million carrier-grade capacity small cells will therefore be deployed during 2017.

By 2017, roughly $1 billion worth of small cell infrastructure gear will be sold globally, Mobile Experts predicts.


Madden is not as optimistic as some about the use of carrier Wi-Fi to offload traffic. Softbank in Japan has tested the offload potential of dense Wi-Fi deployments and apparently has concluded that less than 25 percent of mobile data traffic can be offloaded to public Wi-Fi in the long term.

Those estimates correspond with figures Boingo suggests. Boingo believes about 22 percent of mobile traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi by about 2016.

Others might disagree. Cisco analysts say as much as 30 percent of mobile traffic could occur on Wi-Fi networks. And analysts at Juniper Research think more than 60 percent of mobile device traffic could be offloaded to Wi-Fi means by about 2015.

Others say studies show as much as 70 percent of smart phone traffic uses a Wi-Fi connection.


By 2017, Ericsson expects each macro base station in urban areas will be supplemented by about three small cells small cells.

Today, there are about five million macro base stations deployed worldwide and those in metro areas account for about 15 percent of the total, or about 750,000. That suggests a total of perhaps 2.25 million small cells.

It always is difficult to predict the deployment of small cells because that category sometimes includes virtually all cell sites smaller than a macrocell, including potentially large numbers of consumer grade units used inside homes or offices, plus larger small cells deployed as part of the public mobile network.

Even a casual conversation about the definition of a "small cell" will quickly lead to a series of necessary qualifications and a "fuzzy" answer. Pressed for a concise answer, many observers might point out that a "small cell" approach meaningfully could include every radio installation smaller than a traditional cellular macrocell.

And that's quite a lot of terrain. It includes "carrier" cell sites of 2-kilometer radius, "pico" cells of  perhaps 200 meters, but also customer-owned "femto" cells that cover indoor areas of perhaps 50 meters, and use the customer's own "backhaul" or "access," not a carrier-supplied link.

Those are some reasons why the "heterogeneous network" terminology now has become commonplace.  Future mobile networks will use a variety of cell types, with different capital investment parameters and coverage areas.

Future networks also might make much more direct use of both carrier-supplied and customer-supplied backhaul. A carrier public Wi-Fi hotspot might use a carrier-supplied access connection, while, on an informal basis, most smart phone customers use their own fixed network connections, with their devices connected to in-home or in-building Wi-Fi, in place of any of the mobile cell site types.

Without making too much of the development, "heterogeneous" implies a mix of carrier and consumer-supplied radio and backhaul network resources; a range of management options and quality of service mechanisms.

One might also say that heterogenous networks and customer offloading to Wi-Fi also represent an unparalleled and new form of asset sharing. Whether by formal contract or simply informal mechanisms, customers are using a mix of carrier and "owned" access to support their "untethered" access requirements.

While some entrepreneurs continue to work at creating whole networks using end user supplied access and radio assets, the heterogeneous network does the same thing, essentially. In a broad sense, users and their devices are supported by a mix of carrier-owned and customer-owned networks, both "mobile" and "fixed," using mobile air interfaces and simple Wi-Fi.

The point is that "small cells" are more than a technology. They are part of a shift to more use of "shared" networks in a real sense.

Battery Life, Not Bandwidth, Sometimes is the Key Mobile Limitation

The average power consumption for a 10-minute CDMA circuit-switched call in a recent test was about half that of a 4G Long Term Evolution call. That will get better over time, but right now, it appears that LTE voice calls are going to drain batteries about twice as fast as talking using CDMA networks. 

A 10-minute call using CDMA consumed 680 milliwatts (mW) while the average consumption for a VoLTE call of the same duration was 1358 mW. 

Spirent estimated that on a full charge, its test smartphone could support 502.6 minutes of talk time using CDMA only, but the same charge would only deliver 251.8 minutes of talk time using VoIP on the 4G network. And that’s with all other data communications turned off. And how often do users turn off unneeded radios? 

U,K. Mobile Operator EE Boosts Data Allowances 60%

EE, the U.K. mobile service provider now offering Long Term Evolution services, has boosted 4G data allowances about 60 percent, while keeping prices the same. 

 The 2GB plan now becomes a 3GB allowance, with the 3GB plan increasing to 5GB, and the 5GB allowance now extending to 8GB. All existing 4GEE customers will be automatically upgraded to the new data allowances, with no increase in their monthly fee, the company says. 

iPhone 5 Tops U.S. Smart Phone Sales, Android Leads Elsewhere

The latest smart phone sales data from Kantar Worldpanel ComTech shows that strong uptake of the iPhone 5 over the past 12 weeks ending in October 2012 has boosted iOS back to the number one spot in the U.S. market. 

Apple now has a 48.1 percent share of U.S. smartphone sales compared with Android which has 46.7 percent.

Android leads in other markets, though. In Europe, Android has the lead, accounting for 73.9 percent of sales in Germany and 81.7 percent in Spain.

The majority of US iPhone 5 sales, 62 percent, have come from existing Apple owners upgrading to the new device.

Apple Maintains Lead in Tablets but Market Share Down 14% in 3Q 2012

Apple had 55 percent share of the tablet market in the third quarter of 2012, says ABI Research. But competition from tablets powered by Google’s Android OS continue to eat away at Apple’s share. 

“With the introduction of a smaller, lower-cost iPad mini, Apple has acknowledged Android’s beachhead of 7-inch-class tablets,” says ABI Research senior practice director Jeff Orr.

If this continues, we will have the answer to the question of whether can create an MP-3 style market, where it completely dominates market share, or whether a pattern somewhat more akin to the smart phone or notebook markets will ultimately develop. So far, it appears Apple will not be able to sustain an MP-3 style lock on the market. 

So the market perhaps already has changed. Where early on one might have argued there was an "iPad market" and then a "tablet market," it seems that a unified "tablet" market is developing. For some, the additional question is whether we might see replay, in the tablet space, of the older Microsoft-Apple story, with Android taking the place of Microsoft.