Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Smartphones Cost as Little as 0.6% of Per-Capita GNI in Japan; 48% in Ethiopia

The cost of smartphones is very high in many developing nations, measured as a percentage of gross national income per person, according to KCPB partner Mary Meeker.

Where in Japan a smartphone costs about 0.6 percent of per-capita GNI, a smartphone can cost as much as 48 percent of per-person GNI in Ethiopia.

In Vietnam a smartphone costs 15 percent of per-capita GNI; in India 10 percent of per-person GNI. In other Southeast Asian countries, a smartphone costs six percent of per-person GNI in Indonesia, or five percent in the Philippines.

source: KPCB

India Internet Access Use Growing at 40% Annually

India Internet adoption is growing at a 40-percent rate, according to Mary Meeker's latest "Internet Trends" presentation. 


More IoT Connections than Phones by 2018, Ericsson Predicts

Ericsson predicts that, in 2018,  Internet of Things (connected cars, machines, utility meters, remote metering and consumer electronics) connections will outnumber mobile connections used by people.

Some might argue that forecast is more robust than others expect, since it includes consumer electronics connections that we do not all agree are IoT connections at all. To be sure, many include wearable devices within the IoT category. Others might use a more-restrictive definition.

But Ericsson forecasts that IoT device connections will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent from 2015 to 2021.

In total, around 28 billion connected devices are forecast by 2021, of which close to 16 billion will be related to IoT.

There were around 400 million IoT devices connected by mobile subscriptions at the end of 2015.

Mobile IoT connections will reach 1.5 billion in 2021, Ericsson argues.


source: Ericsson

Will India Allow Some Forms of Zero Rating, After All?

In politics or regulatory realms, principles often follow practices and action precedes theory. So it is in India, where the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has ruled that zero rating is a violation of network neutrality.

Now TRAI is trying to actually define what network neutrality actually means. “Putting the cart before the horse” might come to mind, but that is a bit too harsh. The problem with network neutrality, all along, is that it is a concept devilishly hard to define, much less understand.

So it is paradoxical to hear TRAI chief executive RS Sharma say “he is open to the idea of internet content being provided free of cost or at discounted rates, just like toll-free phone helplines.” Huh?

That sounds like zero rating.

"We have no objection in general if someone decides to provide content free, or at a discounted rate, if the same is made available to subscribers of all mobile operators," Sharma said.

Such comments are one reason a new TRAI consultation paper on net neutrality is seen by some strong network neutrality (no zero rating) proponents as reversing or modifying the initial ban on zero rating.

For the cynical, the new interpretation is an attempt to wiggle out of a tight place. Sharma has said that such subsidized content “does not violate net neutrality” and is not in variance with TRAI's ban on zero rating.

One possible way of squaring that circle could be that sponsored data, or zero rating, could be deemed lawful if available to all mobile subscribers, not just subscribers of a single mobile provider.

TRAI, like all other regulatory bodies, faces the challenge of defining and implementing policies that some believe are harmful, not helpful, and difficult to codify, in objective terms, as rules.

As a matter of science or engineering, it is difficult to guarantee that “every bit will be treated the same,” in terms of delivery delay. Some would argue the obvious point that some apps actually require predictable delivery and low latency (interactive videoconferencing and voice being the best examples).

Nor is it easy to reconcile the fact that the purpose of lawful content delivery networks is in fact to ensure low-latency, predictable packet delivery. So non-neutral packet delivery is part of the existing fabric of consumer Internet access.

Nor have we ever been able to settle the question of how to manage network traffic without some forms of packet shaping, really.

Rationing or prices actually are the only two ways to manage traffic on networks, argues consultant Martin Geddes.

And one problem with bans on zero rating is that doing so precludes the development of “quality of service” differentiators. That, in fact, was precisely what proponents had in mind in requiring “best effort only” Internet access as the only level of lawful service for consumers.

But network neutrality rules essentially try to “protect competition in the app market” from ISP market power in a way that is not fact or science based, Geddes argues.   

To be sure, regulatory harmonization always poses a big choice. Even when applying “the same” regulations to all contestants in a market, regulators must choose between “more” or “less” approaches.

Should markets be harmonized up or down; in the direction of more rules for all contestants, or fewer rules for all contestants; allowing robust competition or restricting it; applying legacy rules to new providers; protecting incumbents or letting innovation reign?

In the past, the question of how to regulate OTT voice and messaging has turned on precisely such questions.

Will India Allow Some Forms of Zero Rating, After All?

In politics or regulatory realms, principles often follow practices and action precedes theory. So it is in India, where the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has ruled that zero rating is a violation of network neutrality.

Now TRAI is trying to actually define what network neutrality actually means. “Putting the cart before the horse” might come to mind, but that is a bit too harsh. The problem with network neutrality, all along, is that it is a concept devilishly hard to define, much less understand.

So it is paradoxical to hear TRAI chief executive RS Sharma say “he is open to the idea of internet content being provided free of cost or at discounted rates, just like toll-free phone helplines.” Huh?

That sounds like zero rating.

"We have no objection in general if someone decides to provide content free, or at a discounted rate, if the same is made available to subscribers of all mobile operators," Sharma said.

Such comments are one reason a new TRAI consultation paper on net neutrality is seen by some strong network neutrality (no zero rating) proponents as reversing or modifying the initial ban on zero rating.

For the cynical, the new interpretation is an attempt to wiggle out of a tight place. Sharma has said that such subsidized content “does not violate net neutrality” and is not in variance with TRAI's ban on zero rating.

One possible way of squaring that circle could be that sponsored data, or zero rating, could be deemed lawful if available to all mobile subscribers, not just subscribers of a single mobile provider.

TRAI, like all other regulatory bodies, faces the challenge of defining and implementing policies that some believe are harmful, not helpful, and difficult to codify, in objective terms, as rules.

As a matter of science or engineering, it is difficult to guarantee that “every bit will be treated the same,” in terms of delivery delay. Some would argue the obvious point that some apps actually require predictable delivery and low latency (interactive videoconferencing and voice being the best examples).

Nor is it easy to reconcile the fact that the purpose of lawful content delivery networks is in fact to ensure low-latency, predictable packet delivery. So non-neutral packet delivery is part of the existing fabric of consumer Internet access.

Nor have we ever been able to settle the question of how to manage network traffic without some forms of packet shaping, really.

Rationing or prices actually are the only two ways to manage traffic on networks, argues consultant Martin Geddes.

And one problem with bans on zero rating is that doing so precludes the development of “quality of service” differentiators. That, in fact, was precisely what proponents had in mind in requiring “best effort only” Internet access as the only level of lawful service for consumers.

But network neutrality rules essentially try to “protect competition in the app market” from ISP market power in a way that is not fact or science based, Geddes argues.   

To be sure, regulatory harmonization always poses a big choice. Even when applying “the same” regulations to all contestants in a market, regulators must choose between “more” or “less” approaches.

Should markets be harmonized up or down; in the direction of more rules for all contestants, or fewer rules for all contestants; allowing robust competition or restricting it; applying legacy rules to new providers; protecting incumbents or letting innovation reign?

In the past, the question of how to regulate OTT voice and messaging has turned on precisely such questions.

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

What is the Killer App for Smart Cities?

Some now believe smart cities will be an early and substantial market for Internet of Things apps and services. The problem is that there are any number of practical implementations, without clear and sustainable business models, yet.

Of course, nobody yet knows. It is conceivable that connected car, wearables, health or agriculture and manufacturing or even home automation theoretically could emerge earlier.

Parking, air pollution, traffic management, monitoring of water pipe leaks, streetlight management or wastewater management are some of the areas believed to be fertile ground for smart cities initiatives. Others might argue less-exotic implementations, such as municipal Wi-Fi, also count as “smart cities” programs.

But there are many sources of inertia, including unclear payback or business models, technology platform confusion and the cost of equipping end users and networks with sensor capabilities. It is not clear what sustainable revenue models look like, nor are there absolutely clear killer apps to drive massive adoption.

Some amount of pump priming, in the form of government grants, might help, in a few cases. Still, beyond installing a general purpose communications network, it is not so clear that there are synergies between the various proposed “smart city” capabilities.

source: Compass Intelligence  

Banks Warming to Cloud Computing?

Large financial institutions traditionally invest heavily in new technology, but also are “conservative” about security issues and control. That some now seem willing to embrace moves to cloud computing might suggest change is coming.

Capital One is already in the process of shutting down five of its eight private data centers to move most of its data to AWS by 2018. Another "large" bank cited in the note said it's committed to shutting down all of its private data centers by 2020, although it's more likely to start with a hybrid of cloud and on-premise data centers, according to the note.

These kinds of changes will only speed up the adoption of the cloud by other sectors, too, expanding the overall pie for public-cloud vendors. Gartner estimates spending on public-cloud services to increase from $85 billion in 2014 to $180 billion in 2019, according to a note by Bank of America.

source: IDC

DIY and Licensed GenAI Patterns Will Continue

As always with software, firms are going to opt for a mix of "do it yourself" owned technology and licensed third party offerings....