Wednesday, June 1, 2016

Communication Preferences Illustrate Shift of Value in Communications

It is impressionistic, but look at how U.S. consumers rank their communication preferences. Asked which channels are most popular with generations of consumers, contact center professionals say 90 percent of “Silent Generation” consumers prefer the telephone.

For Millennials, Internet web chat and social media are the preferred channels, collectively representing 48 percent of “first choice” votes.

Those behaviors and preferences have something to do with prospects for the telecom industry, in the sense that voice was a vertically-integrated, “owned” form of communication. Web chat and social media are the province of third party, over the top app providers.



Generational Differences in Role of Technology

There is an argument that psychographics are more important than demographics. In other words, it often is argued, a consumer’s personality, values, opinions, attitudes, interests and lifestyles matter more than where a consumer lives, how much money a consumer makes, education attainment or age.

In actuality, both probably matter to some extent, though targeting relies more on psychographics than demographics.

Still, we might note that generations emerge in different technology contexts. The “Silent” generation grew up in the era of radio. The “Baby Boomers” grew up in the era of television. “Gen X” grew up in the personal computer era. “Millennials” grew up in the Internet and mobile era.

source: KPCB

Smartphones Cost as Little as 0.6% of Per-Capita GNI in Japan; 48% in Ethiopia

The cost of smartphones is very high in many developing nations, measured as a percentage of gross national income per person, according to KCPB partner Mary Meeker.

Where in Japan a smartphone costs about 0.6 percent of per-capita GNI, a smartphone can cost as much as 48 percent of per-person GNI in Ethiopia.

In Vietnam a smartphone costs 15 percent of per-capita GNI; in India 10 percent of per-person GNI. In other Southeast Asian countries, a smartphone costs six percent of per-person GNI in Indonesia, or five percent in the Philippines.

source: KPCB

India Internet Access Use Growing at 40% Annually

India Internet adoption is growing at a 40-percent rate, according to Mary Meeker's latest "Internet Trends" presentation. 


More IoT Connections than Phones by 2018, Ericsson Predicts

Ericsson predicts that, in 2018,  Internet of Things (connected cars, machines, utility meters, remote metering and consumer electronics) connections will outnumber mobile connections used by people.

Some might argue that forecast is more robust than others expect, since it includes consumer electronics connections that we do not all agree are IoT connections at all. To be sure, many include wearable devices within the IoT category. Others might use a more-restrictive definition.

But Ericsson forecasts that IoT device connections will grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23 percent from 2015 to 2021.

In total, around 28 billion connected devices are forecast by 2021, of which close to 16 billion will be related to IoT.

There were around 400 million IoT devices connected by mobile subscriptions at the end of 2015.

Mobile IoT connections will reach 1.5 billion in 2021, Ericsson argues.


source: Ericsson

Will India Allow Some Forms of Zero Rating, After All?

In politics or regulatory realms, principles often follow practices and action precedes theory. So it is in India, where the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has ruled that zero rating is a violation of network neutrality.

Now TRAI is trying to actually define what network neutrality actually means. “Putting the cart before the horse” might come to mind, but that is a bit too harsh. The problem with network neutrality, all along, is that it is a concept devilishly hard to define, much less understand.

So it is paradoxical to hear TRAI chief executive RS Sharma say “he is open to the idea of internet content being provided free of cost or at discounted rates, just like toll-free phone helplines.” Huh?

That sounds like zero rating.

"We have no objection in general if someone decides to provide content free, or at a discounted rate, if the same is made available to subscribers of all mobile operators," Sharma said.

Such comments are one reason a new TRAI consultation paper on net neutrality is seen by some strong network neutrality (no zero rating) proponents as reversing or modifying the initial ban on zero rating.

For the cynical, the new interpretation is an attempt to wiggle out of a tight place. Sharma has said that such subsidized content “does not violate net neutrality” and is not in variance with TRAI's ban on zero rating.

One possible way of squaring that circle could be that sponsored data, or zero rating, could be deemed lawful if available to all mobile subscribers, not just subscribers of a single mobile provider.

TRAI, like all other regulatory bodies, faces the challenge of defining and implementing policies that some believe are harmful, not helpful, and difficult to codify, in objective terms, as rules.

As a matter of science or engineering, it is difficult to guarantee that “every bit will be treated the same,” in terms of delivery delay. Some would argue the obvious point that some apps actually require predictable delivery and low latency (interactive videoconferencing and voice being the best examples).

Nor is it easy to reconcile the fact that the purpose of lawful content delivery networks is in fact to ensure low-latency, predictable packet delivery. So non-neutral packet delivery is part of the existing fabric of consumer Internet access.

Nor have we ever been able to settle the question of how to manage network traffic without some forms of packet shaping, really.

Rationing or prices actually are the only two ways to manage traffic on networks, argues consultant Martin Geddes.

And one problem with bans on zero rating is that doing so precludes the development of “quality of service” differentiators. That, in fact, was precisely what proponents had in mind in requiring “best effort only” Internet access as the only level of lawful service for consumers.

But network neutrality rules essentially try to “protect competition in the app market” from ISP market power in a way that is not fact or science based, Geddes argues.   

To be sure, regulatory harmonization always poses a big choice. Even when applying “the same” regulations to all contestants in a market, regulators must choose between “more” or “less” approaches.

Should markets be harmonized up or down; in the direction of more rules for all contestants, or fewer rules for all contestants; allowing robust competition or restricting it; applying legacy rules to new providers; protecting incumbents or letting innovation reign?

In the past, the question of how to regulate OTT voice and messaging has turned on precisely such questions.

Will India Allow Some Forms of Zero Rating, After All?

In politics or regulatory realms, principles often follow practices and action precedes theory. So it is in India, where the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has ruled that zero rating is a violation of network neutrality.

Now TRAI is trying to actually define what network neutrality actually means. “Putting the cart before the horse” might come to mind, but that is a bit too harsh. The problem with network neutrality, all along, is that it is a concept devilishly hard to define, much less understand.

So it is paradoxical to hear TRAI chief executive RS Sharma say “he is open to the idea of internet content being provided free of cost or at discounted rates, just like toll-free phone helplines.” Huh?

That sounds like zero rating.

"We have no objection in general if someone decides to provide content free, or at a discounted rate, if the same is made available to subscribers of all mobile operators," Sharma said.

Such comments are one reason a new TRAI consultation paper on net neutrality is seen by some strong network neutrality (no zero rating) proponents as reversing or modifying the initial ban on zero rating.

For the cynical, the new interpretation is an attempt to wiggle out of a tight place. Sharma has said that such subsidized content “does not violate net neutrality” and is not in variance with TRAI's ban on zero rating.

One possible way of squaring that circle could be that sponsored data, or zero rating, could be deemed lawful if available to all mobile subscribers, not just subscribers of a single mobile provider.

TRAI, like all other regulatory bodies, faces the challenge of defining and implementing policies that some believe are harmful, not helpful, and difficult to codify, in objective terms, as rules.

As a matter of science or engineering, it is difficult to guarantee that “every bit will be treated the same,” in terms of delivery delay. Some would argue the obvious point that some apps actually require predictable delivery and low latency (interactive videoconferencing and voice being the best examples).

Nor is it easy to reconcile the fact that the purpose of lawful content delivery networks is in fact to ensure low-latency, predictable packet delivery. So non-neutral packet delivery is part of the existing fabric of consumer Internet access.

Nor have we ever been able to settle the question of how to manage network traffic without some forms of packet shaping, really.

Rationing or prices actually are the only two ways to manage traffic on networks, argues consultant Martin Geddes.

And one problem with bans on zero rating is that doing so precludes the development of “quality of service” differentiators. That, in fact, was precisely what proponents had in mind in requiring “best effort only” Internet access as the only level of lawful service for consumers.

But network neutrality rules essentially try to “protect competition in the app market” from ISP market power in a way that is not fact or science based, Geddes argues.   

To be sure, regulatory harmonization always poses a big choice. Even when applying “the same” regulations to all contestants in a market, regulators must choose between “more” or “less” approaches.

Should markets be harmonized up or down; in the direction of more rules for all contestants, or fewer rules for all contestants; allowing robust competition or restricting it; applying legacy rules to new providers; protecting incumbents or letting innovation reign?

In the past, the question of how to regulate OTT voice and messaging has turned on precisely such questions.

Will AI Fuel a Huge "Services into Products" Shift?

As content streaming has disrupted music, is disrupting video and television, so might AI potentially disrupt industry leaders ranging from ...