Saturday, January 5, 2008

Is Mobile Substitution at the Tipping Point?



Something interesting might be happening in the mobile-only household segment. Wireless-only households, especially households including only a single resident or multiple young adults, have been increasing for some years.

But there is now some indication that mobile-only usage is higher in the general population than it is among more technologically-savvy users. If that trend holds up, it indicates that cutting the landline now has reached a possible tipping point.

In the first six months of 2007, 13.6 percent of households did not have a traditional landline telephone, but did have at least one wireless telephone, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

Now here's the other bit of interesting data: The Harris Poll, which surveyed Internet users only, found that 11 percent of those respondents were mobile-only. Going only slightly out on a limb, let's assume Internet users are more open to new technology-use behaviors.

Indeed, the Harris Poll shows that two percent of Internet users only have VoIP services, and do not use mobile or landline phones. Another five percent say they use mobiles and VoIP.

Adding the "mobile only" users with the "mobile and VoIP" users gives you 16 percent of users who do not use a landline. Add the two percent who use only VoIP and one has 18 percent of Internet users who do not have a landline. So it still appears that Internet users are "different" from the general population.

That is as many of us would expect. Still, it is startling that "wireless only" usage seems to higher in the general population than among the arguably more-advanced Internet users.

Overall, the percentage of adults living in wireless-only households has been steadily increasing since 2005. In the first six months of 2007, one out of every eight adults lived in wireless-only households. One year before that just one in 10 adults did.

What might be new is some new spread of such behaviors beyond what we have tended to see, up to this point.

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