Consumer Sentiment Shift?

The important thing about the recession is to look for signs of change, for evidence of a bottoming, as the recession now has been formally working its way through the economy for 14 months. Though it is not definitive by any means, a shift in consumer sentiment already might be occurring. 

According to the latest ChangeWave survey of U.S. consumers, conducted January 5-9, there were signs that consumer spending may finally be stabilizing.  While overall spending still looks terrible, ChangeWave notes, the 90-day outlook is not quite as "horrible" as it was in the December 2008 survey. 

Fifty-seven percent of U.S. respondents said they'll spend less during the next 90 days than they did a year ago, but that's three points better than in the December survey. Another 13 percent said they'll spend more -- two points better than previously. 

Respondents were also queried on their current impressions of the economy and, once again, while things look bad, they don't appear quite as awful as they did in December. About 12 percent said they think the economy will improve in the next 90 days, three points better than in December. About 56 percent said they think the economy will worsen during the next 90 days, but a significant 10 points better than the December low.

Other sentiment indicators also show some improvement, according to the study.

Some five percent said they are very satisfied with the current state of their personal finances, up one point from the record low in December, while another 39 percent said they're somewhat satisfied, up eight points.

Twenty-six percent said they are now more confident in the U.S. stock market than they were 90 days ago, 13 points better than previously. Only 31 percent said they're less confident, a 25-point improvement 

The new data is important because the first step in the recovery is for a bottom to be reached. Changing sentiment is one such sign. In past recessions, peak unemployment claims have been an indicator as well, as significant layoffs are a lagging metric. Often, if not typically, the "bottom" is reached about 30 days after a month where "peak" layoffs occur.