Ever wonder why so many market forecasts you read these days are for where a particular market will be in 2013?
The rapidly mobile M2M (machine-to-machine) market, for example, suffered a setback in 2008 with growth in cellular module shipments stalling overall compared with 2007, according to Beecham Research.
The decline was caused by projects being cancelled or postponed, particularly in the second half of 2008, Beecham says.
Nevertheless, Beecham sees growth returning by 2010 and reaching annual module sales of over $2 billion by 2013.
The reason is that five years is about as far as any rational forecaster dares see into the future. And the last year for which full-year data are available is 2008. Go out five years and you reach 2013.
Next year you'll be reading about where markets for specific products and services will be in 2014. Same reason.
5 comments:
Excatly, it is a wonder what the earth is going to be like on 2013!!
Btw, I am looking for Hype cycle of Telecommunications player. Could not find it on your site, could pls drop me the relevant link.
http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/research_hype.jsp
Not of much use... but greatly appreciate the effort.
Thanks.
Oh, you probably mean this specific document:
http://www.insidegartner.com/download/Understanding_Gartners_HypeCycles.pdf
Thanks Kim.
Sorry I should I stated my purpose.
India is going thro' some of the toughest consolidations in telecoms sector. In this background, we are having some healthy debate as to the future of telecoms in India. Some are of the view that 4G capabilities will boost India's telecoms growth (on back of huge population) and this present downtrend is just a flickr in the pan.
So, what we were looking for is the Hype cycle of telecoms technologies as it is represented globally. Since, the technological lead-time has shortened, though not real-time, the technologies hype curve of Gartner would be a great pointer in understanding this possibility.
Thanks for yor efforts.
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