Like other Apple products before it, and like some other popular consumer products, the iPhone already has carved out an "experience" and "emotional bond" that cannot be broken by a substitute product.
Still, the Droid seems to be the sort of product that will advance the use and adoption of Web content to a connected device, especially for users whose Web experiences are heavily Google-mediated.
Significantly, Nielsen data from the third quarter of 2009 already suggests Android users are heavy mobile Web users, maybe even more so than iPhone users, who, up to this point, have been the heaviets mobile Web users.
But there is still plenty of room in the market for devices that are optimized around a lead application. The iPhone might have been the best example to date of a device really optimized around Web access as BlackBerry has been optimized around mobile email and other devices are plumbing the "turn by turn navigation" app, for example.
In the fourth quarter of 2009, perhaps 40 percent of all new devices sold will be smartphones of one sort or another. By 2011, smartphones will represent the majority of phones in use, Nielsen forecasts.
"Projecting Nielsen data out through 2010, we see smartphones crossing 50 percent of the market by the middle of 2011, roughly equal to 150 million users," says Jerry Rocha, Nielsen Online Division senior director.
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