Cloud Computing Nears "Trough of Disillusionment"

Cloud computing is nearing a point where many observers or users are destined to become more disillusioned. And that will be a good thing. The reason cloud computing disillusionment will be a good thing is that such disillusionment, the end of overly-inflated expectations, is a normal part of the adoption cycle for most important technologies.

Only after the hype has worn off, and expectations are aligned with a better understanding of how value is generated, do major new innovations actually reach a stage where they routinely are used, and routinely generate value. 

Cloud computing has moved well past the peak of the hype cycle and is positioned near the bottom of the “trough,” a position Gartner might say shows cloud computing is largely past the stage of inflated expectations.

Cloud computing is not yet a standard technology delivering well-understood value. That still lies ahead.

By way of comparison, “big data” is almost at the peak of inflated expectations while the Internet of Things hype still is building.

Near field communications, a technology mobile service providers are hoping will prove vital for mobile-enabled commerce, the Isis and other mobile wallet services, still is on the back side of the hype curve, indicating it will yet be some time before the inflated expectations are wrung out.

The good news for supporters of cloud computing and NFC is that although there should be a further period where disillusionment is significant with both technologies, the period of useful adoption will follow next, with clear-eyed understanding of where value lies.

But that still will be a process of years, not months. Its supporters, while desiring faster progress, probably also recognize cloud computing is part of a larger transition of computing architecture that also includes embedded and highly distributed computing modes. 

Something that complex will displace existing ways of doing things, but it will take a while.

The “evolving relationship between humans and machines” is the way Gartner has chosen to organize the latest version of its “Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies.”

That shows the generally heightened hype around smart machines, cognitive computing and the Internet of Things, or machine-to-machine communications. In the telecommunications business, that hype is seen in the attention now paid to connected car systems, home security and sensor networks of all sorts in the energy business.

Gartner's hype cycle reports are intended to  provide strategists and planners with an assessment of the maturity, business benefit and future direction of more than 2,000 technologies.

New hype cycles this year include content and social analytics, embedded software and systems, consumer market research, open banking, banking operations innovation, and information and communication technology (ICT) in Africa.

"In making the overriding theme of this year's hype cycle the evolving relationship between humans and machines, we encourage enterprises to look beyond the narrow perspective that only sees a future in which machines and computers replace humans,” said Jackie Fenn, Gartner VP and fellow.

Three trends are at work, Fenn notes. Technology such as wearable computing devices augment humans. In other cases, machines replacing humans.

A virtual assistant acting as an automated customer representative provides one example of that second trend.

The third trend is humans and machines working alongside each other, said Fenn.

Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2013