Mobile Revenue: Voice 21%. Where's the Rest?

Mobile analyst Chetan Sharma has been looking at the next waves of mobile service provider revenues for some time, using the phrase "the fourth wave."

At present, perhaps 55 percent of revenue was contributed by voice services. Recently, data access has contributed 17 percent, and the over-the-top and digital services a mere three percent.

Over the next 10 years, Sharma expects those percentages to change dramatically. Mobile digital services other than access might grow to 30 percent of total revenue, while voice will represent less than 21 percent.

If mobile digital services are the single biggest category at 30 percent, the implication is that mobile Internet access will represent less than 30 percent of total revenue. 

One assumes that means about 49 percent of revenue will come from messaging revenues, mobile Internet access and handset revenues. 

The bad news is that it appears ecosystem participants other than mobile service providers will be positioned to earn much of the gross revenue from which mobile service providers collectively earn 30 percent. 

If you look at the way machine-to-machine, connected car, mobile payments, mobile banking and mobile commerce initiatives split revenue between app providers, merchants, clearinghouses and others, you might see the problem. 

To earn their 30 percent, mobile service providers will have to work with many other firms generating substantially bigger gross revenues. That assumption is based on the likelihood that telcos will supply some key enabling features to third parties who largely will operate the new mobile digital services.