As a rule, I expect that any given communications service provider will have to replace half of current revenue about every decade. Among the best examples (because we have the data) is the change in composition of U.S. telecom revenues between 1997 and 2007.
Back in 1997, nearly half of total revenue was earned from “toll” services (long distance, including international and domestic long distance voice. Profits also were disproportionately driven by long distance services.
A decade later, toll service had dropped to 18 percent of total revenue, while mobile services had risen to about half of total revenues, up from about 16 percent of total.
A similar trend can be noted for European Union mobile revenues between 2010 and 2018, a period of less than a decade, but still a time when voice revenue dropped from about 80 billion euros to about 45 billion euros, while messaging dropped from about 19 billion euros to perhaps 10 billion euros and mobile internet access grew from about 18 billion euros to perhaps 42 billion euros.
There is some good evidence that computing industry suppliers must replace half of current revenues every 10 years. That is true for chip maker revenues as for computing services providers.
That pattern is clear in telecommunications as well. Messaging revenues provide a good example. Voice revenues provided an earlier example.
Mobile services have been the industry driver for most of the past couple of decades, but new sources still must be found.
The cable TV industry likewise has had to replace about half its revenue over a decade.
Similar trends can be seen at AT&T, where mobile revenues replaced fixed revenues as the big driver of overall results.
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