Fixed Network Revenue Already Walks on Two Legs: Will Mobile Follow?

One need not agree that the cable TV industry is imploding to agree that the industry’s revenue sources are changing in fundamental ways. 

In fact, the cable industry and the rival telephone industry seem to be converging on a similar revenue foundation, at least in the fixed networks business, in the consumer segment.

Consider Google Fiber, which offers two services, namely Internet access and video entertainment. And look at total subscribers in the U.S. video and fixed network business.

Already, the number of high-speed Internet access customers is closing on parity with the number of people buying video subscription services, in the U.S. fixed networks business.

It will take some time for the mobile business to reach the same revenue source pattern we are seeing in the fixed networks business in developed markets. The contribution of voice services to total EMEA service revenue, for example,  will decline from 47 percent to 39 percent through 2017, according to Analysys Mason.

Likewise, a disproportionate share of global revenue growth will be driven by the Asia Pacific region, where non-messaging mobile data will contribute almost 82 percent of the overall increase in worldwide service revenue, according to Analysys Mason.

APAC telecom revenue will grow at a four percent CAGR, with mobile data revenue equaling mobile voice revenue in the APAC region by 2017.

The reasons are quite simple: voice revenue is plunging, while Internet spending is growing, as is video entertainment.

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