Nokia argues that the fourth industrial revolution will boost industrial productivity, which Nokia rightly notes has been less than one percent per year since 1980. Nokia argues that industry 4.0 is going to boost productivity, built on “connecting everything” and using the internet of things.
Private networks using 4G can help firms get a head start, Nokia argues, even before native 5G is available. One would expect Nokia to say that.
The key issue, though, is whether more information technology--private 5G, private 4G or public 5G, is going to show early productivity results when 40 years of IT investments have failed to move the needle.
If you have worked on the supplier side of the business, you know buyers almost never believe such claims, in terms of magnitude of benefit.
Historical data since at least 1971 helps explain that skepticism. Though other forces are at work, it is hard to quantify the benefits of IT deployments, and probably also will be true of other promising “digital business transformation” efforts as well.
Since 1971, for example, productivity has generally been dropping in developed nations, for example. There are mitigating issues, many will argue.
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