It is to be expected that consumer behavior in unprecedented times will feature at least temporary aberrations. It could hardly be otherwise with much of the economy shut down and people living through a pandemic.
The big issue is whether--and to what extent--those behaviors might persist, on a permanent basis. Some would argue the great recession of 2008 caused permanent changes of behavior, and we might see greater changes for health reasons after the Covid-19 pandemic.
Looking at U.S. consumer spending about seven years after the start of the 2008 recession, Macy’s executives noted a “permanent” shift to automobiles, housing, health care and digital experiences.
Leisure travel, dining out and attending events (experiences) also gained favor. A general increase in buying based on “value” also arguably occurred. A decade later, many of those trends of spending caution still seemed to be in effect.
To be sure, there are other trends not directly related to post-recession thinking: a shift of retail to digital channels, environmental, “buy local,” socially-responsible behavior and organic product trends. Many have noted the preference for experiences rather than goods.
Looking only at content consumption, the pandemic has boosted use of, and interest in, media of all types.
Daytime viewing is overtaking primetime for ratings numbers, according to Samba TV. Daytime viewing numbers are up 121 percent year over year and total viewing time is up 85 percent. Viewing of cable news has also seen a sharp uptick between the hours of 9 a,m, and 4 p.m. as well.
Nobody expects those trends to persist once people go back to work and school. Virtually everybody seems to expect a permanently higher level of online shopping. Some believe a permanent shift in remote work is possible, with a shift of significant higher education to online delivery as well.
A reasonable baseline case is that underlying trends in place before the pandemic become stronger. Even the hard-hit activities that involve larger gatherings of people, travel and lodging are going to recover, albeit with interaction precautions likely persisting in some ways.
Supply chains already were changing, prior to the pandemic. That likely is a permanent shift. But that trend was underway before the pandemic. Disaster preparedness will improve, though. History suggests many far-reaching potential changes are unlikely to happen. But pre-pandemic trends are likely to accelerate.
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