Is AI overhyped? Certainly. But that is a different matter from expectations of huge value. It is only suggestive, but add up the 2023 estimated value of several key types of technology, and compare it to what might happen by 2030. The revenue upside noted in the studies shown above would be in the neighborhood of $10 trillion annually.
Technology | Estimated revenue in 2023 (USD billions) | Estimated potential impact of AI on an annual basis by 2030 (USD billions) | Study name, date of publication, and venue |
Personal computing | 1.5 trillion | 5.3 trillion | The Economic Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from Patent Data (2021, Science) |
Cloud computing | 500 billion | 1.2 trillion | The AI Economy: Opportunity, Risk, and Renewal (2021, McKinsey Global Institute) |
Internet e-commerce | 5.5 trillion | 10 trillion | The Future of Commerce: How the Rise of AI is Changing the Way We Shop (2022, Forrester Research) |
Search | 200 billion | 300 billion | The Impact of AI on the Global Search Market (2023, Gartner) |
Social media | 150 billion | 250 billion | The AI Social Media Revolution (2023, eMarketer) |
Apparently, nobody yet has suggested that artificial intelligence will have negative productivity effects; will fail to produce innovation, new firms, new products or enhance the value of existing industries, firms and products.
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