Some idea of the disruption AI might eventually support can be seen in business model possibilities in the computing markets for hardware and software.
Traditionally, software and hardware firms made their revenue selling those products to customers who wanted software and hardware solutions for their business or personal uses.
It would at one time have been odd to suggest that a major technology products company would make its money not from selling software or hardware in a direct sense, but instead supporting applied technology with a revenue model based on advertising or e-commerce, for example.
So Amazon, Uber, Airbnb and Doordash, which might be viewed as “technology” firms, make their money by retailing transactions. Alphabet mostly makes its money from advertising, as does Meta.
And even many traditional hardware and software firms now make most of their revenues from subscriptions rather than outright sale of software or hardware products. In a sense, many former “hardware and software” firms now are “service providers” akin to providers of communications, fresh water, wastewater, electricity, natural gas or trash removal services.
But that shift to “services” also has allowed new products to emerge, notably software as a service; computing cycles as a service; data storage as a service and so forth. Uber represents “transportation as a service” akin to passenger use of railroads, airlines, cruise lines, ferries or taxicabs.
And perhaps that offers clues about where to look for the emergence of distinctively-new products AI will enable. Ignore for the moment AI as an infrastructure business for ChatGPT or other large language model suppliers.
In some cases the actual technology products people and businesses use will emerge. In other cases it might be the monetization of value that changes. Two decades ago, for example, firms experimented with the idea of connectivity services supported by advertising.
More recently, Amazon experimented with the idea of ad-supported phone service. Free Mobile, the French mobile operator, has offered a free mobile plan with ads.
FreedomPop, the U.S. mobile operator that was acquired by Red Pocket Mobile, offers a free mobile plan with ads. The company generates revenue from advertising displayed on the phones of its users, as well as from premium services such as additional data and international calling.
AdMobilizer is a company that provides a platform for mobile operators to offer ad-supported mobile plans. The company works with mobile operators in over 50 countries to offer ad-supported plans to their users.
Such efforts have not been huge successes, but the concept is there. If software services can be supported by advertising or commerce, why not connectivity services?
The precedents are there: technology products supported by advertising or e-commerce, rather than by direct sales of technology (hardware, appliances, software licenses).
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