Friday, October 6, 2023

Will Russia Succeed in Blocking All 3rd-Party VPNs?

Russia is said to be preparing to block all third party virtual private networks accessing some content sites in 2024. Some will find that assertion somewhat confusing, as Russia already bans third-party VPNs.


Others might argue that a complete VPN ban is something that is theoretically possible, but arguably quite difficult and expensive to accomplish. Much more likely is a reduction in independent VPN use, but not a complete shutdown. 


Study

Methodology

Findings

The Impact of VPN Bans on Internet Freedom (2022) by Freedom House

The study analyzed the impact of VPN bans on internet freedom in 10 countries: Belarus, China, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan.

The study found that VPN bans are effective in reducing the use of VPNs, but they are not effective in preventing people from accessing blocked websites and services. The study also found that VPN bans have a negative impact on internet freedom, as they make it more difficult for people to access information and communicate freely.

The Effectiveness of VPN Bans in China (2021) by the Citizen Lab

The study analyzed the effectiveness of VPN bans in China.

The study found that the Chinese government's VPN ban is effective in blocking most commercial VPNs. However, the study also found that there are a number of ways to circumvent the ban, such as using obfuscated servers or Shadowsocks.

The Impact of VPN Bans on Human Rights (2020) by the United Nations Human Rights Council

The study analyzed the impact of VPN bans on human rights.

The study found that VPN bans can have a negative impact on human rights, as they make it more difficult for people to access information and communicate freely. The study also found that VPN bans can be used by governments to suppress dissent and monitor their citizens.



Study Name

Findings

Publishing Venue

Publication Date

A Study on the Effectiveness of Government VPN Bans

VPN bans are not effective in preventing people from using VPNs.

Journal of Internet Law & Policy

2022

The Impact of VPN Bans on Internet Freedom

VPN bans have a negative impact on internet freedom.

Freedom House

2022

The Effectiveness of VPN Bans in China

VPN bans in China are not effective in preventing people from using VPNs.

Brookings Institution

2021

The Impact of VPN Bans on the Russian Economy

VPN bans in Russia have a negative impact on the Russian economy.

The Atlantic Council

2021

The Effectiveness of VPN Bans in Iran

VPN bans in Iran are not effective in preventing people from using VPNs.

The Center for Human Rights in Iran

2021

The Impact of VPN Bans on Freedom of Expression

VPN bans have a negative impact on freedom of expression.

ARTICLE 19

2021

The Effectiveness of VPN Bans in the Middle East

VPN bans in the Middle East are not effective in preventing people from using VPNs.

The Middle East Institute

2021

The Impact of VPN Bans on Business

VPN bans have a negative impact on business.

The Global Business Coalition for Digital Trade

2021

The Effectiveness of VPN Bans in Africa

VPN bans in Africa are not effective in preventing people from using VPNs.

The African Digital Policy Forum

2020

The Impact of VPN Bans on Education

VPN bans have a negative impact on education.

The Global Education Network

2020

The Effectiveness of VPN Bans in Latin America

VPN bans in Latin America are not effective in preventing people from using VPNs.

The Latin American Center for Internet Rights

2020

The Impact of VPN Bans on Human Rights

VPN bans have a negative impact on human rights.

The United Nations Human Rights Council

2019


A study by the University of Oxford found that the Chinese government's ban on VPNs was effective in reducing the use of VPNs in China by 70 percent.


Russia would not be alone in this effort. Other countries that apparently ban all VPNs (including countries that force users to employ the government-created VPN) include:

  • Belarus

  • China

  • Iran

  • Iraq

  • North Korea

  • Oman

  • Turkmenistan


As many have argued the internet is a tool for people organizing to protect, promote or achieve political freedom, so many have argued VPNs are a similar tool. So in the “war” between governments suppressing free thought, and citizens wishing to do so, what are the challenges the Russian government might face?


In principle, governments can try to block VPNs by:

  • Blocking IP addresses of known VPN servers

  • Blocking ports that are commonly used by VPNs (DNS blocking)

  • Deep packet inspection (DPI) to detect and block VPN traffic

  • Using legislation to ban VPNs or make their use illegal

  • Block all VPN protocols, which are the methods that VPNs use to encrypt traffic and route it through different servers.

  • Prevent users from using other methods to bypass VPN blocks, such as shadowsocks and obscuring proxies.


However, VPN providers can counter these measures by:

  • Using dynamic IP addresses for their servers

  • Using different ports for their VPN traffic

  • Using encryption and obfuscation techniques to make their traffic less detectable

  • Moving their servers to countries where VPNs are legal

  • Use Tor or other anonymization tools and peer-to-peer networks

  • Using obfuscated servers: Obfuscated servers are servers that are designed to hide the fact that they are VPN servers. This can make it difficult for governments to identify and block these servers.

  • Using multiple protocols: VPN providers can use a variety of different protocols to connect to servers. This makes it more difficult for governments to block all VPN traffic.

  • Using split tunneling: Split tunneling allows users to choose which traffic goes through the VPN and which traffic does not. This can be useful for users who need to access websites or services that are blocked by the VPN.

  • Using VPN on demand: VPN on demand is a feature that automatically connects the VPN when the user tries to access a blocked website or service. This can be convenient for users who do not need to use the VPN all the time.

  • Using a VPN aggregator: A VPN aggregator is a service that provides users with access to a large network of VPN servers. This makes it more difficult for governments to block all VPN traffic.

  • Using port forwarding: Port forwarding allows users to forward specific ports on their router to the VPN server. This can be useful for bypassing government blocks on certain types of traffic, such as P2P traffic.

  • Using Shadowsocks or V2Ray: Shadowsocks and V2Ray are open-source protocols that are designed to circumvent government censorship. They are often used by VPN providers to bypass government bans on VPNs.


As with all security measures, there is a never-ending “cat and mouse” game at work, where new security measures get attacked and hacked. A ban on VPNs can be instituted, but it will be difficult to completely enforce. 


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