Thursday, November 30, 2023

Data Center Capex Will More Than Double over 10 Years: How Much is the Only Issue

Among the predictions about the impact of artificial intelligence on data centers are a few salient statistics. Sanjay Bhutani, AdaniConneX chief business officer, notes that AI will drive data centers from 54 gigawatts  to perhaps 90 Gwatts. 


Likewise, Gautham Gnanajothi, Frost and Sullivan global VP estimates data center investment will grow from about $300 billion to $775 billion over the next 10 years, of which the largest-eight hyperscalers currently represent about $110 billion in annual investment out of the total of $300 billion globally. 


Capex estimates vary from firm to firm, depending on assumptions about growth rates. Generally speaking, earlier studies show lower expected capex in 2033, compared to more-recent studies that include assumptions about additional requirements to support AI. 


Publisher

Prediction

Date

Frost & Sullivan

$610 billion

2023-10-04

IDC

$570 billion

2023-09-27

Gartner

$530 billion

2023-08-15

MarketsandMarkets

$590 billion

2023-07-12

Mordor Intelligence

$630 billion

2023-06-08

Grand View Research

$550 billion

2023-05-03

Technavio

$510 billion

2023-04-19

Fortune Business Insights

$560 billion

2023-03-07

Allied Market Research

$540 billion

2023-02-14

Statista

$580 billion

2023-01-10



Study Title

Capital Investment Prediction (2033)

Date of Publication

Publisher

Global Data Center Market Size, Trends, and Forecasts, 2022-2030

$814 billion

September 2023

Fortune Business Insights

Data Center Market Size, Share, Trends & Growth, 2023-2032

$795.2 billion

October 2023

Grand View Research

Data Center Market Global Report 2023

$768.7 billion

November 2023

Market Research Future

Data Center Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report by Component (IT Infrastructure, Facility Infrastructure), by Deployment Type (On-Premises, Cloud), by Vertical (BFSI, IT & Telecom, Retail, Healthcare), Forecast, 2023 - 2028

$742.5 billion

November 2023

Allied Market Research

Data Center Market - Global Industry Analysis, Size, Share, Growth, Trends, and Forecast, 2023 - 2028

$721.4 billion

November 2023

Global Market Insights

Future of Data Centers: 2023-2033

$698.2 billion

October 2023

Data Center Frontier

Data Center Market Global Trends and Forecast to 2030

$675.1 billion

September 2023

IDC

The Future of Data Centers in the Post-Pandemic Era

$652.0 billion

August 2023

Gartner

Data Center Market Size and Growth Analysis, 2023-2030

$631.9 billion

July 2023

ReportLinker

Global Data Center Industry Outlook 2023

$610.8 billion

June 2023

Frost & Sullivan


If the same ratios hold in a decade, hyperscalers will be investing about $284 billion, while other data centers invest about $496 billion, using the Frost and Sullivan estimate made by Gnanajothi. 


On the other hand, not all of the AI impact will necessarily involve “more” commitment of resources. Since AI model training does not require the same level of redundancy as do other operations, it is possible that AI training will represent less resource intensity than other types of operations, Gnanajothi suggests. 


Also, the denser footprint AI represents might also mean less proportional demand for land and building space, compared to existing operations. 


Also, AI training operations might not always be so latency dependent, though inference operations might often require edge computing, says Phillip Marangella, EdgeConnex chief marketing officer. 


And data centers, just like any other enterprise or organization, should be able to use AI to improve the efficiency of its operations. In fact, says Bhutani, AdaniConnex already uses AI to improve safety operations when it is building or operating a facility. 


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