There is a Union of Different Kinds

There's way too little of this, these days: what unites us, not what divides us; the acceptance, tolerance of real diversity; not the fake kind that castigates "groups" of people one disagrees with. 

Computing has Shifted from Work to Life and Now Begins to Augment Life

I think we generally miss something important when pondering how artificial intelligence will shift job functions from repetitive, lower-order tasks to higher-order cognitive tasks, even displacing many cognitive tasks, with consequent impact on jobs. 

Across three major computing eras: the personal computer era (roughly 1970s–1990s); the internet era (1990s–2010s) and the coming AI era (2010s–present), computing's pervasiveness has increased steadily.

Where we first used PCs to accelerate routine work tasks ("doing things faster"), we later used the internet to accelerate knowledge acquisition ("learning things faster") and then playing, shopping and traveling, while demolishing many geographic barriers.  

The shift was from “computing for work” to “computing for life.”

But AI should be even more pervasive, allowing us to optimize outcomes ("doing things better"), and shifting computing from intentional interactions to anticipatory (autonomous) action. So computing shifts from tool to “collaborator.” PCs and software were tools we used. In the AI era computing will augment and amplify human capabilities. 

To be sure, we might argue that all general-purpose technologies have augmented human senses or capabilities in some way (muscles, sight, hearing, cognitive tasks, speech, transport, staying warm or cool). 

So the movement is something like “work to life to existence.” Sure, we can still ponder what AI means for work, or life. But that likely underplays the impact on normally esoteric thinking about what humans do that is uniquely human. 

AI arguably can automate intermediate cognitive tasks such as basic data analysis, customer service responses and routine decision-making. So yes, AI will reshape work. 

Cognitive Task	Example Tasks	Current AI Capabilities	Extent of Automation
Data Processing and Analysis	Data entry, basic statistical analysis, report generation	AI excels at processing large datasets, generating insights, and creating reports (e.g., tools like Power BI, Tableau with AI plugins, or custom ML models).	High: Routine data tasks are fully or near-fully automated. Human oversight needed for validation and complex interpretation.
Pattern Recognition	Fraud detection, image classification, trend identification	AI uses machine learning (e.g., neural networks) to identify patterns in financial transactions, medical imaging, or market trends with high accuracy.	High: AI often outperforms humans in speed and scale, but human judgment is required for context or anomalies.
Basic Decision-Making	Customer service responses, inventory management, scheduling	AI-powered chatbots (e.g., Zendesk, Intercom) handle routine queries; algorithms optimize schedules or stock levels.	Moderate to High: Routine decisions are automated, but complex or ambiguous cases require human intervention.
Content Generation	Writing emails, creating marketing copy, summarizing texts	Generative AI (e.g., GPT models, Jasper) produces coherent text, summaries, or creative content based on prompts.	Moderate: AI generates drafts or suggestions, but human editing is needed for nuance, tone, or originality.
Diagnostic Tasks	Medical diagnostics, legal research, technical troubleshooting	AI assists in diagnosing diseases (e.g., IBM Watson, Google Health), analyzing legal documents, or identifying system errors.	Moderate: AI provides accurate recommendations, but final diagnoses or decisions require human expertise.
Predictive Modeling	Sales forecasting, risk assessment, customer behavior prediction	AI models (e.g., regression, deep learning) predict outcomes based on historical data with high precision.	High: Predictions are automated, but humans must interpret results and make strategic decisions.
Language Translation and Processing	Real-time translation, sentiment analysis, speech-to-text	AI tools (e.g., Google Translate, DeepL) provide near-human-quality translations and analyze sentiment in texts or speech.	High: Routine translations are nearly fully automated; human input needed for cultural nuances or specialized contexts.
Routine Problem-Solving	Technical support queries, basic coding, process optimization	AI resolves common IT issues, generates simple code (e.g., GitHub Copilot), or optimizes workflows.	Moderate: AI handles standard cases, but novel or complex problems require human creativity and reasoning.

But AI will affect not only work, but almost all other elements of human life. In the PC era computing automated and digitized work and personal projects.

In the Internet era computing enabled new forms of creativity, commerce, and community.

In the AI era we’ll see augmented human intelligence, senses, and capabilities.

Also, compared to the earlier impact of PCs and the internet, it is possible that AI will produce outcomes sooner than has been the case in the past. 

Where we might argue that PCs produced widespread change over a two-decade or three-decade period, where the internet arguably produced fundamental changes over a two-decade period,, some believe AI will achieve widespread change in as little as a decade. 

The IBM PC, for example, was released in 1981. It wasn’t until about 2000 that half of U.S. households owned a PC. 

In 1983, perhaps 10 percent of U.S. homes owned a PC and about 14 percent of those homes used a modem to connect using the internet, according to Pew Research. At that point, it was all-text bulletin boards and the visual browser and multimedia internet had not yet been invented. 

It was not until 2000 or so that half of U.S. consumers said they used the internet. 

Year	PC Adoption (%)	Internet Adoption (%)
1995	36	14
2000	51	41.5
2010	76.7	71
2016	89.3	87

Hard to Tell What a "Typical" Consumer Pays for Home Broadband

It remains as hard as ever to figure out what the “average” or “typical” U.S. customer actually pays for home broadband service. Analysis has to be done on posted retail prices for stand-alone service, without taking into account bundle discounts, promotional pricing and then all the “extras” such as modem rental that often are involved.

And in the U.S. market, bundling is quite significant, indeed.



That noted, if one just analyzes the posted, stand-alone prices for home broadband, one might say these are typical ranges. Anecdotally, one might guess that the bundle price for any home broadband service can easily be 40 percent to 50 percent lower than the stand-alone retail price.

The point is that up to half of households do not pay those “stand-alone” rates because they buy a bundle of some sort that lowers the actual cost. So, roughly speaking, blended prices might be about 75 percent of the stand-alone rates, including both bundle discounts and accounts buying stand-alone internet access.

Product Substitution: Plant-Based Protein Largely Fails the Test

It is a truism that substitute products, such as plant-based proteins that mimic meat, must have some obvious value that induces consumers to switch. That might be lower price, clear product advantages or something else.

Technology-driven substitution

New Product	Replaced Product	Why It Succeeded
Smartphones	Feature phones, standalone cameras, MP3 players, GPS devices	Combined multiple devices in one; convenience outweighed cost
Streaming services (Netflix, Spotify)	DVD rentals, CDs, broadcast TV, radio	On-demand access, personalization, lower friction
LED lighting	Incandescent & CFL bulbs	Lower energy use, longer lifespan, better performance
Digital photography	Film cameras & film processing	Instant review, no film cost, easy sharing

Price/value substitution

New Product	Replaced Product	Why It Succeeded
Private-label grocery brands	National branded packaged goods	Comparable quality at lower price; retail shelf control
Refurbished enterprise IT hardware	New OEM hardware	Lower capex; acceptable reliability for many workloads
Budget airlines (Southwest, Ryanair)	Full-service carriers	Lower fares, point-to-point routes

Performance/feature substitution

New Product	Replaced Product	Why It Succeeded
Cordless power tools	Corded power tools	Mobility, convenience, battery improvements
Electric vehicles	Internal combustion engine vehicles (for some segments)	Lower running costs, performance, environmental positioning
Solid-state drives (SSD)	Hard disk drives (HDD) in laptops	Faster performance, lower power, durability

Business process / B2B substitution

New Product / Service	Replaced Product / Service	Why It Succeeded
Cloud computing (AWS, Azure)	On-premise servers	Elastic scaling, reduced capex, speed of deployment
SaaS CRM (Salesforce)	Installed CRM software	Lower IT overhead, constant updates, remote access
E-procurement platforms	Paper-based or email-based purchasing	Speed, transparency, auditability
VoIP telephony	Traditional PBX systems	Cost savings, integration with software platforms

Material & ingredient substitution

New Product	Replaced Product	Why It Succeeded
Aluminum cans	Glass bottles for beverages	Lighter, cheaper to transport, unbreakable
Synthetic rubber	Natural rubber	Stable supply, price stability, performance in varied conditions
Plant-based milks (soy, almond, oat)	Dairy milk (for some buyers)	Lactose-free, perceived health/environmental benefits

So far, though advocates might be repeat buyers, the typical shopper has not found the expected product advantages, not any cost advantage. And even if all other attributes were similar, the cost premium seems excessive. 

Plant-based meat has carried a large price gap versus conventional meat of as much as 80 percent. Not many product alternatives with comparable characteristics or value to the target product are going to succeed with a price premium that large. 

But for many buyers, product attributes are not “equal.” Taste and texture seem to discourage buyers.  

Macro pressures (inflation, cost sensitivity) do not help, either. 

Many would-be buyers arguably still would prefer to substitute plant-based protein for meat. But product improvements and price issues have to be addressed. 

Year	Plant-based meat & seafood retail sales (USD)	Unit sales (million units)	Total plant-based retail food sales (USD)	Household penetration (% of U.S. households buying plant-based meat & seafood)
2022	$1.43 B (approx.) — industry retail estimate. The Good Food Institute	270 million units (GFI/SPINS). The Good Food Institute	$8.2 B (GFI/SPINS dataset for 2022). The Good Food Institute	19% (household penetration, 2022). The Good Food Institute
2023	$1.26 B (approx., derived from reported year-over-year change). The Good Food Institute	— (category showed declines vs 2022; SPINS/GFI tracked a drop but official 2023 unit number is in the GFI dataset). The Good Food Institute	$8.1 B (GFI/PBFA reporting for 2023). The Good Food Institute	15% (penetration, 2023). The Good Food Institute
2024	$1.17 B (GFI market overview / SPINS-based figure). The Good Food Institute	195 million units (GFI report: 195M units sold in 2024). The Good Food Institute	≈ $8.1 B (category roughly stable overall; plant-based meat & milk declines offset other growth). The Good Food InstituteThe Food Institute	13% (penetration, 2024). The Good Food Institute

But work continues on a number of fronts, experts say. 

Category	Method	Purpose	Example Brands / Products
Taste	Protein purification & low-heat processing	Remove off-flavors (beany, grassy, bitter) from pea/soy proteins	Ripple Foods (pea milk), Beyond Meat’s pea protein refinement
	Enzymatic treatment of proteins	Break down bitter peptides, improve solubility	Ingredion (Versawave proteins), Burcon NutraScience
	Yeast & mushroom extracts	Boost umami and savory meat-like flavor	Quorn (mycoprotein), Unilever The Vegetarian Butcher
	Maillard reaction precursors	Create cooked-meat aroma during cooking	Impossible Burger uses amino acids + sugars for aroma
	Cultured fats for flavor release	Provide authentic meat fat flavor during cooking	Mission Barns, Lypid
Texture	High-moisture extrusion (HME)	Align protein fibers to mimic muscle	Beyond Meat, MorningStar Farms Incogmeato, Nestlé Sensational Burger
	Shear-cell technology	Create long fibrous structures without high temp/pressure	Nutreco / Rival Foods partnership
	Blending multiple proteins	Adjust chewiness & elasticity	Gardein (pea + wheat + soy), Lightlife
	Encapsulated fats & emulsions	Simulate marbling & juiciness	Lypid PhytoFat, Beyond Meat marbling
	Layered component assembly	Build steak/chicken textures with different layers	Meati (mycelium-based “whole cut”), Juicy Marbles (plant-based steak)
Visual realism	Natural colorants	Raw-to-cooked color shift	Impossible (soy leghemoglobin), Beyond (beet juice extract)
	Visible marbling inclusions	Mimic animal fat streaks	Juicy Marbles, Chunk Foods
	Heat-reactive appearance	Browning/grill mark simulation	MorningStar Grillers, Beyond Cookout Burger
Advanced / Hybrid	Precision fermentation	Produce animal-identical proteins (heme, whey, casein)	Impossible Foods (heme), Perfect Day (whey protein)
	Cultured fat inclusion	Use real animal fat grown in bioreactors	Mission Barns, Hoxton Farms
	3D food printing	Layer plant proteins for whole-muscle cuts	Redefine Meat, NovaMeat
	Enzyme cross-linking	Modify protein gels for bite & elasticity	Enzymtec, R&D at Kerry
	Hybrid plant + cultivated meat	Improve taste & realism while reducing animal content	Eat Just GOOD Meat, Upside Foods (future planned blends)

Consumers might well prefer such product substitutes, but suppliers have to create substitutes that are close enough, in quality and price, to compete. So far, that is not the case.