Sunday, June 15, 2025

Will AI Displace "Thinking" Functions More than "Physical?"

Artificial intelligence driven job cuts are going to remain an issue for some time, with some uncertainty about the types of job functions at most risk. Most of the early analysis has suggested AI will disrupt jobs that have large amounts of repetitive or routine work, including data entry, remote customer service, manufacturing, bookkeeping or marketing content creation, for example. 


Job Category/Role

Industry/Function

Present Impact (2025)

Forecast (2030–2045)

Data Entry Clerks

Administrative/Finance

Significant automation ongoing

Continued decline, likely major reduction12

Customer Service Representatives

Retail/Tech/Finance

Widespread chatbot adoption

Large-scale job cuts expected123

Manufacturing Workers

Manufacturing

Robotics increasing automation

Major workforce reductions13

Administrative Assistants

All industries

AI tools augmenting tasks

Moderate to high risk of cuts3

Bookkeepers, Accountants

Finance

Routine tasks automated

Continued automation, fewer jobs13

Content Writers, Copywriters

Marketing/Media

AI writing tools proliferating

Entry-level jobs at high risk43

Paralegals/Legal Clerks

Legal

Document review automation

Significant job cuts expected123

Loan Officers, Underwriters

Finance

Loan processing automated

Ongoing reduction in roles12

Financial Analysts

Finance

Data analysis automated

Augmentation, some job loss13

Truck Drivers, Delivery Couriers

Logistics, Transportation

Autonomous vehicle trials

Major disruption by 203013

Warehouse, Logistics Workers

Logistics

Robotics and AI in operations

Heavy automation, fewer jobs13

Entry-Level Programmers

Tech

AI code generation increasing

Reduction in entry-level roles14

Human Resources Staff

HR/All industries

AI-driven HR automation

Significant cuts in some functions


In many cases, though, it might be hard to quantify the direct impact of AI substitution compared to other more-prosaic pressures, such as the simple need to align workforce costs with expected revenues in declining or no-growth industries. “Using AI” might in many cases be a convenient excuse for labor force cuts, even when AI really is not the actual driver of behavior. 


That noted, as AI keeps getting more proficient and trustworthy, the threat of displacement will increase. Automated vehicles displacing Uber drivers provides a good example. 


Roles requiring creativity, empathy, critical thinking, and physical adaptability (healthcare, education, leadership, social work) are less likely to be automated. Also probably safe: labor-intensive jobs in construction, skilled trades, installation and repair and maintenance.


In fact, wouldn’t it be odd if AI eventually winds up replacing “thinking” functions more than “physical” functions? Many projections seem to assume it is physical work that gets automated. 


But AI might continue to have issues that make “thinking” functions easier to displace, while manipulation of the physical world requires humans.  


Still, some estimates suggest up to 50 percent of jobs could be fully automated by 2045, with 30 percent of current U.S. employment at risk of automation by 2030. The magnitude of such forecasts typically seems exaggerated, at least to me, but the larger point of eventual significant displacement seems reasonable enough.

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