Will AI Displace "Thinking" Functions More than "Physical?"

Artificial intelligence driven job cuts are going to remain an issue for some time, with some uncertainty about the types of job functions at most risk. Most of the early analysis has suggested AI will disrupt jobs that have large amounts of repetitive or routine work, including data entry, remote customer service, manufacturing, bookkeeping or marketing content creation, for example. 

Job Category/Role	Industry/Function	Present Impact (2025)	Forecast (2030–2045)
Data Entry Clerks	Administrative/Finance	Significant automation ongoing	Continued decline, likely major reduction12
Customer Service Representatives	Retail/Tech/Finance	Widespread chatbot adoption	Large-scale job cuts expected123
Manufacturing Workers	Manufacturing	Robotics increasing automation	Major workforce reductions13
Administrative Assistants	All industries	AI tools augmenting tasks	Moderate to high risk of cuts3
Bookkeepers, Accountants	Finance	Routine tasks automated	Continued automation, fewer jobs13
Content Writers, Copywriters	Marketing/Media	AI writing tools proliferating	Entry-level jobs at high risk43
Paralegals/Legal Clerks	Legal	Document review automation	Significant job cuts expected123
Loan Officers, Underwriters	Finance	Loan processing automated	Ongoing reduction in roles12
Financial Analysts	Finance	Data analysis automated	Augmentation, some job loss13
Truck Drivers, Delivery Couriers	Logistics, Transportation	Autonomous vehicle trials	Major disruption by 203013
Warehouse, Logistics Workers	Logistics	Robotics and AI in operations	Heavy automation, fewer jobs13
Entry-Level Programmers	Tech	AI code generation increasing	Reduction in entry-level roles14
Human Resources Staff	HR/All industries	AI-driven HR automation	Significant cuts in some functions

In many cases, though, it might be hard to quantify the direct impact of AI substitution compared to other more-prosaic pressures, such as the simple need to align workforce costs with expected revenues in declining or no-growth industries. “Using AI” might in many cases be a convenient excuse for labor force cuts, even when AI really is not the actual driver of behavior. 

That noted, as AI keeps getting more proficient and trustworthy, the threat of displacement will increase. Automated vehicles displacing Uber drivers provides a good example. 

Roles requiring creativity, empathy, critical thinking, and physical adaptability (healthcare, education, leadership, social work) are less likely to be automated. Also probably safe: labor-intensive jobs in construction, skilled trades, installation and repair and maintenance.

In fact, wouldn’t it be odd if AI eventually winds up replacing “thinking” functions more than “physical” functions? Many projections seem to assume it is physical work that gets automated. 

But AI might continue to have issues that make “thinking” functions easier to displace, while manipulation of the physical world requires humans.  

Still, some estimates suggest up to 50 percent of jobs could be fully automated by 2045, with 30 percent of current U.S. employment at risk of automation by 2030. The magnitude of such forecasts typically seems exaggerated, at least to me, but the larger point of eventual significant displacement seems reasonable enough.