Intel Tries to Join Apple Among Innovator Ranks

Here's another example of the fact that truly-significant innovation sometimes comes from the largest and most-influential firms, not from upstart firms. Apple is probably the best-known and most-apt example. Google once was an upstart, but these days is a deep-pocketed incumbent.

Now Intel appears to be preparing a ferocious assault on the underlying chip-level technologies that will power the next generation of mobile-based Internet and computing.

"The going rate for a state-of-the-art chip factory is about $3 billion," the New York Times reports. And those are just table stakes. Predicting a "bloody" war, the Times points out that, in this next phase, the manufacturers will be fighting to supply the silicon for one of the fastest-growing segments of computing: smartphones, tiny laptops and tablet-style devices.

The fight pits several big chip companies against Intel, and the winner or winners will be assured a significant place in the emerging mobile computing ecosystem, which most observers predict is the next era of computing to come.

Enterprise Software Not Where It's At Anymore

The future of enterprise computing will draw from what is being developed on the consumer side, says Paul Otellini, Intel CEO. "Consumers today are the number one users of semiconductors; they passed over IT and government in 2004."

"Prior to that period, most people developing silicon in the industry were focused on the main market: the enterprise and IT," says Otellini. "Today, most of us are focused on the consumer market as drivers."

"Not so long ago, if you were technology-oriented and wanted to do something innovative and cool that would make you rich, you wrote a new piece of enterprise software," he says. "Or you came up with a new design for a server. Or you figured out a way to link business people with their offices while on the road."

That's just not the case anymore. Innovation is coming from the consumer Web.

More Google Partners

Japanese wireless carriers KDDI and NTT DoCoMo, Qualcomm, Broadcom, HTC, Intel and Texas Instruments also are said to be partners for the upcoming Google phone initiative.

What does WiMAX Displace?

To the extent that mobile phone penetration is nearing saturation, while broadband access to businesses and homes also is close to saturaturated, at least as a technology supporting personal computers, one has to ask what customer demand WiMAX will cannibalize. Well, I suppose some people might argue WiMAX creates a new market, but the issue still is to envision what that new market is.

So far, it appears most observers other than Intel Corp. think WiMAX will supplant some other form of access.

Intel clearly sees WiMAX as a technology that changes demand for lap-top PCs. As Internet access has changed requirements for desktop machines, so Intel believes WiMAX will create new demand for mobile machines that are always connected.

But most service providers seem to view WiMAX as a technology that extends or replaces some other existing end user value or network. Sprint sees WiMAX as a technology that changes the mobile phone market by extending beyond third generation platforms, first augmenting and then replacing earlier generations of technology.

T-Mobile might view WiMAX as a technology that potentially displaces Wi-Fi hotspots. Cable and telephone companies see it as a threat to cable modem, fiber-to-home and Digital Subscriber Line services.

I wouldn't be so sure WiMAX ultimately will have most impact as a PC-affecting technology.

It seems to me more likely it will have much more significance as a mobile phone and mobile handheld device platform. There are all sorts of reasons why users aren't going to take advantage of mobile WiMAX from their PCs, including ambient light and furniture. Everybody can reach for and use a mobile in a pocket or purse.