To the extent that mobile phone penetration is nearing saturation, while broadband access to businesses and homes also is close to saturaturated, at least as a technology supporting personal computers, one has to ask what customer demand WiMAX will cannibalize. Well, I suppose some people might argue WiMAX creates a new market, but the issue still is to envision what that new market is.
So far, it appears most observers other than Intel Corp. think WiMAX will supplant some other form of access.
Intel clearly sees WiMAX as a technology that changes demand for lap-top PCs. As Internet access has changed requirements for desktop machines, so Intel believes WiMAX will create new demand for mobile machines that are always connected.
But most service providers seem to view WiMAX as a technology that extends or replaces some other existing end user value or network. Sprint sees WiMAX as a technology that changes the mobile phone market by extending beyond third generation platforms, first augmenting and then replacing earlier generations of technology.
T-Mobile might view WiMAX as a technology that potentially displaces Wi-Fi hotspots. Cable and telephone companies see it as a threat to cable modem, fiber-to-home and Digital Subscriber Line services.
I wouldn't be so sure WiMAX ultimately will have most impact as a PC-affecting technology.
It seems to me more likely it will have much more significance as a mobile phone and mobile handheld device platform. There are all sorts of reasons why users aren't going to take advantage of mobile WiMAX from their PCs, including ambient light and furniture. Everybody can reach for and use a mobile in a pocket or purse.
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