Barnes & Noble Runs Out of E-Book Readers, Demand Stronger than Forecast

Barnes & Noble says it has run out of available stock of the new Nook e-book reader. Customers who ordger now won't get it until the week of Jan. 4, 2010. "Preorders have exceeded our expectations," said Barnes & Noble spokeswoman Mary Ellen Keating. The company says its $259 e-book reader "continues to be the fastest-selling product at Barnes & Noble.

That has been true for Amazon's Kindle, as well, which is the leading e-book reader at the moment. Analysts have been ratcheting up their sales forecasts over the past two years as consumers exceed earlier forecasts.

Apple, meanwhile, is rumored to be preparing a tablet style device that could double as an e-book reader, and, rumor suggests, will be available early in 2010.

So there is lots of "action" in the e-book reader space, interesting for what it implies about the future economics and distribution formats to be used by the publishing and news industries, the sustainability of "single-purpose" mobile device markets over time, contrasted with "multi-purpose devices," and the associated impact on mobile service provider business models.

There doesn't seem to be much question that distribution of print content now is at the beginning of a change that music already has gone through, and that video also is undergoing. Book distributors and publishers have to be wondering whether this is all such a good thing for them.

From an end user standpoint, one of the interesting angles is whether the e-book reader remains a stand-alone, single-purpose device or whether it ultimately becomes a feature of a multi-purpose device. The answer obviously has huge ramifications for smartphone, netbook and e-book providers.

There is no single historical pattern here. TV displays, home audio systems, microwave ovens and landline phones generally have remained single-purpose devices. The iPod has been a single-purpose device, but the "touch" and now the iPhone might be changing that situation.

Smartphones are multi-purpose devices. Portable navigation devices traditionally have been single-purpose devices, but the Motorola Droid is challenging that notion.

Apple's rumored tablet would be an attempt to provider a multi-function device, and that probably is the form factor necessary for such a convergence. Though people have speculated on smartphones becoming e-book readers, the challenges of form factor (small enough to fit in purse or pocket, light enough to use as a phone, plus large enough screen size to read) seem rather implausible in a single device.

Besides Amazon and Barnes & Noble, other companies offering e-readers include Japan's Sony, Britain's Interead, and Dutch company IREX Technologies.

Forrester Research estimates that three million e-readers will be sold in the United States this year, up from a previous forecast of two million units.

Forrester said it expected 900,000 units to be sold in the upcoming holiday season alone and for e-reader sales to double to six million units in 2010, bringing cumulative sales to 10 million units.

Citi analyst Mark Mahaney thinks Amazon will sell 1.5 million Kindles in 2009, up from his previous estimate of one million. Mahaney thinks Amazon will sell 2.7 million Kindles in 2010.

“Book applications for smartphones have the potential to become a bridge to other devices such as tablet readers and netbooks,” said Mr. Weiner. “Apple, for example, could migrate the more than 500 book applications in the iTunes store to a tablet device and Google, which recently announced a browser-based e-reader, could offer applications for Android-based devices of various form factors,” he says.

Is Twitter Traffic Falling?

More than one recent study has suggested that Twitter traffic is declining, after leveling off in the summer of 2009. But is it really? The answer is complicated.

According to Nielsen, traffic to Twitter.com was down a dramatic 27.8 percent between September and October 2009, falling to 18.9 million unique visitors.

Research firm comScore also noted that unique visitors were down 8.1 percent in October, while Compete reported a 2.1 percent decline.

Some might suggest the traffic decline is caused by falling interest in Twitter, while others suggest the traffic simply is caused by Twitter third-party applications and mobile access.

Crowd Science, for example, in August studied traffic patterns and found 43 percent of Twitter users accessed the service through third-party applications, and 19 percent using text messaging.

Personally, I'd bet on the use of third party apps and mobility as the explanation. Nielsen says the third quarter of 2009 was the first quarter in which more than half of mobile Internet users were accessing the Web using a smartphone, and since social network updates are a huge driver of smartphone usage, it stands to reason that traffic sources are changing.

fring Now Available for Android

Surprising Smartphone Statistics?

I don't know about you, but I found this bit of data on smartphone use surprising.  According to Nielsen, when looking at smartphone use with a baseline of 100, smartphone users  disproportionately tend to be 18 to 34 years old. 


One wonders what happened to the BlackBerry users between the ages of 35 and 54, whom one might think are over-represented among the ranks of smartphone users. 


Granted, this is an index with 100 as baseline, so it is more an example of "over-indexing" among some segments, but the findings still surprised me.


That was especially surprising given the over-indexing of smartphone used at least in part for business purposes. 


While smartphone usage is shifting from purely business use to both personal and business use, owners are still more than two times as likely to own a smartphone for business usage only.  


The study also suggests smartphone owners continue to be predominantly male, are 65 percent more likely than the average mobile subscriber to be between the ages of 25 and 34, and nearly two times as likely to make more than $100,000 a year.

Wi-Fi's Business Model: Not What Was Expected

New technologies sometimes wind up being used in ways not originally envisioned. It might sound odd today, but there was a time when public Wi-Fi was seen by some as a replacement for fixed broadband used by residential customers, or as a competitor to wireless 3G networks.

These days, with a couple of notable exceptions, public Wi-Fi lives by indirect revenue models. It is an amenity for retail or hospitality operations that make money some other way. Coffee, food, lodging or memberships are some of the revenue models.

The notable exception is "for fee" Wi-Fi in global markets where the cost of 3G access is very high, making a for-fee Wi-Fi connection a better deal.

In recent years, the typical revenue model for public Wi-Fi has been that it is a valuable amenity for sales of fixed broadband connections and retention of customers. More recently, public Wi-Fi has become an important component of the value of some smartphones, which can use hotspots for VoIP even when it is not allowed on the 3G networks.

AT&T, for example, says that its customers made 25.4 million Wi-Fi connections in the third quarter of 2009, exceeding the 20 million connections made in all of 2008 and nearly equaling the 25.6 million connections made in the first half of 2009.

Wi-Fi usage has been increasing significantly each quarter, up from 5.2 million connections in the third quarter of 2008. Smartphones and other Wi-Fi enabled devices are the reason, AT&T says.

For the first time, the number of Wi-Fi connections made by smartphones and other mobile devices in the third quarter surpassed connections from laptops, AT&T notes.

About 60 percent of all AT&T Wi-Fi connections were made from mobile devices, up from 49 percent in the second quarter of 2009, AT&T says.

Public Wi-Fi seems destined to play a bigger role in the smartphone market going forward, as it is a great way to offload video and other bandwidth-intensive applications from the mobile network to the fixed network.

So aside from its value as a feature that supports an indirect revenue model for retailers, it is a value-enhancing way for service providers to differentiate and add value to their mobile and fixed broadband services.

In the future, it likely will assume a greater role in allowing mobile networks to better manage bandwidth. None of those initially were thought of as the "value" of public Wi-Fi.

Order of Magnitude Increase in Mobile Bandwidth by 2015

U.S. mobile carrier traffic reach 724 TBytes per month in 2015, up from 15 TB per month in 2009, says Coda Research Consultancy, an overall compound annual growth rate of 90 percent. As you might expect, video is behind the sharp rise, growing 104 percent.

(click image for larger view)

In fact, by 2015, video is forecast to represent about two thirds of all traffic, or 459 TB a month, Coda Research says.

That could be a problem. Sprint and Clearwire, for example, argue their new WiMAX networks will provide three times to five times the bandwidth of 3G networks. That's all well and good, but this forecast suggests aggregate demand will grow 10 times from present levels.

Several issues: is there enough spectrum to handle all this growth? What is the cost of upgrading facilities, even if there is enough spectrum? Is there any video revenue model that pays for the investments? Will the mobile regulatory framework provide incentives or disincentives for investment?

Those are the big challenges. But the report has other nuggets for some parts of the mobile ecosystem.

Handsets will drive 68 percent of mobile carrier traffic by 2015, while netbooks will represent 14 percent.
Coda also estimates that mobile ad revenues will total $5.05 billion in 2015.

By 2015, mobile data revenue will grow to 47 percent of mobile service provider revenues, while voice generates 53 percent of revenue. This last prediction is important, as it suggests how and when mobile service providers will cope with the ultimate shift away from mobile voice business models.

Is Mobile Handset Market Heating Up?

Handset shipments suffered another annual decline in the third quarter but are forecast to rebound in the key final quarter of the year, according to Strategy Analytics and IDC. Virtually all observers attribute the slowdown to slower handset replacement caused by consumer caution in the face of the recession.

Strategy Analytics estimates that global handset shipments reached 291 million units in the third quarter, down four percent from 304 million units year over year.

IDC estimates third quarter 2009 shipments totalled 287.1 million units worldwide, down six percent from a year earlier, but up 5.6 percent from the second quarter.

"The mobile phone market is showing the first signs of improvement since the onset of the economic crisis," says Ramon Llamas, senior research analyst at IDC. "During the third quarter, we saw a number of channels promoting older devices at significantly lower prices. For many, this was enough to spur demand and push volumes higher."

Strategy Analytics forecasts that 300 million handsets will be shipped in the key fourth quarter, an increase of three percent increase on the 294 million units shipped in the last quarter of 2008.

"We believe this will be the first time the industry has returned to positive growth since the third quarter of 2008, signalling an end to the handset recession after four quarters of decline," Strategy Analytics says.

Of course, industry-wide averages sometimes obscure market share changes. Nokia sales dipped eight percent, year over year, while Samsung grew 16 percent. LG grew 37 percent. Both Sony Ericsson and Motorola reported declines.

Verizon to Debut Motorola Droid Nov. 6, 2009

Verizon Wireless will take the wraps off its new "Droid" device, built by Motorola, on Nov. 6, 2009. The new device will feature a 3.7-inch high-resolution screen featuring more than 400,000 pixels total, more than twice that of the "leading competitor," Verizon says.

The Android operating system supports running of multiple applications at once, and allows toggling between as many as six simultaneous applications. Google searches can be conducted using voice input and results are location dependent. Content on the phone, such as apps and contacts plus the Web can be searched using the search box.

"Push" Gmail is supported, as is "push" Microsoft Exchange email. "Google Maps Navigation" provides turn-by-turn voice guidance as a free feature of Google Maps.

Droid will be available in the United States exclusively at Verizon Wireless Communications Stores and online for $199.99 with a new two-year customer agreement after a $100 mail-in rebate.

Customers will receive the rebate in the form of a debit card; upon receipt, customers may use the card as cash anywhere debit cards are accepted.

Customers will need to subscribe to a nationwide voice plan and an email and Web for plan. Nationwide voice plans begin at $39.99 for monthly access for 450 minutes and an "Email and Web for Smartphone" plan costs $29.99 for monthly access.

Wirefly’s Top 10 Most-Anticipated Cell Phones

In a major change, the top-two "most anticipated" new mobile devices are made by Motorola. That hasn't happened for quite some time, and will be a huge test of Motorola's decision to rely on Android as its ticket back into the top ranks of manufacturers of "hot" devices.

The launches are equally important for mobile service providers, who have found devices to be primary ways of differentiating their services. We'll have to see, but it is possible, perhaps likely, that a key new feature of the top-two Android devices will be their methods of integrating contact information and status updates across applications. That's an angle on "unified communications" we have not seen so much in the mobile arena.

Here's Wirefly's ranking and commentary.

1. Motorola Droid (Verizon Wireless) - The most anticipated cell phone launch of the season is just days away, but the hype for this the Motorola Droid smartphone has been building for quite some time.  Verizon Wireless has invested heavily in a national “teaser” marketing campaign, while keeping the details about this Android-based device close to the vest.  The Droid is the first commercial phone released with the new Android 2.0 platform, and has been dubbed the “iPhone killer” by many a technology-writer.  Verizon Wireless is stoking the fire with a campaign that touts all the things the Droid does that the iPhone doesn’t – from running multiple apps, to a full slide-out keyboard, to changeable batteries and memory to a 5.0 megapixel camera that takes photos in the dark.

2. Motorola CLIQ MB200 (T-Mobile) - The highly-anticipated Motorola CLIQ is the new king of the T-Mobile Android smartphone lineup, and the first since the original G-1 to have a full slide-out keyboard.    What really makes it buzz-worthy, though, is that it utilizes the new MotoBlur user interface that syncs your social media, contacts, and e-mail in real time, providing instant access to the latest happenings and messages from friends.  (The Cliq is currently available to existing T-Mobile customers, however, new customers will not be able to purchase the device until November 2nd, and therefore, it still garners a spot on our top picks.)

3. Samsung Moment (Sprint) - Sprint’s second Android device, the Samsung Moment, mark’s Samsung’s entry into the Android smartphone market with a full slide-out keyboard and a first-of-its-kind AMOLED touch screen, providing unprecedented brightness that’s also kind to your battery life.

4. LG Chocolate Touch (Verizon Wireless) – The LG Chocolate is an iconic Verizon Wireless phone, and this new touch version should be even sweeter than its predecessors.

5. Samsung Behold II (T-Mobile) – The Behold II is the sequel to the very successful Samsung Behold but with one MAJOR difference - the latest version runs on the Android smartphone operating system.  The Behold II also features a "cube menu" that provides quick access to six multimedia features at the flick of a finger: music, photos, videos, the Web, YouTube, and Amazon MP3.

6. HTC Desire 6200 (Verizon Wireless) – Verizon Wireless is making headlines with the Droid, but is expected to follow quickly with a second Android-powered smartphone dubbed the Desire.  The Desire will not have a keyboard, and will boast HTC’s touch screen “Sense” interface that has won rave reviews on the HTC Hero.  

7. Sprint Palm Pixi (Sprint) – The Sprint Palm Pixi is being touted as a tiny, sleek webOS-based handset that offers many of the same features and functionality as the Pre without the hefty price tag.

8 . BlackBerry Storm 2 (Verizon Wireless) – This next generation of the touch screen BlackBerry Storm looks similar to the original model on the outside, but boasts notable improvements on the inside such as a Wi-Fi radio, sleeker design, and an improved SurePress typing system.

9. BlackBerry Bold 9700 (AT&T & T-Mobile) –This smartphone is an updated version of the high-end Blackberry Bold that hit the market last year.  It is thinner and lighter with a faster Web browser than its predecessor and replaces the original Bold's track ball with an optical track pad.

10. LG Shine 2 (AT&T) – The successor to the immensely popular Shine; but as its name indicates, it promises to be twice as sleek and sexy.

Quick Messaging Phones Gain Favor Fast

While smartphones like Apple’s iPhone, the BlackBerry Storm, and T-Mobile’s Android-based MyTouch get all the attention, another category of mobile phones has quietly been accelerating its market share, says Forrester Research.

The quick messaging device offers a keyboard and, or touchscreen, providing much of the functionality of a smartphone but lacking the high-level operating system. Where a smartphone user likely is interested in email or mobile Web, a quick messaging user is text message centric.

At the start of 2008, seven percent of U.S. adult mobile subscribers owned a smartphone, while just one in 20 subscribers used a quick messaging device. A year later, more than one in 10 adult subscribers was using a smartphone, an impressive growth rate of 57 percent, but quick messaging devices grew nearly twice as fast and almost doubled their market share to nine percent.

In other words, quick messaging devices have nearly reached the level of smartphone penetration.

With all major operators expanding their quick messaging lineup and prices declining, these numbers are likely to continue in 2009, Forrester Research predicts.

For example, AT&T today offers more than 10 phones in this category, beginning at just $9.99
for the Motorola Karma when purchased online with a two-year contract. Verizon Wireless goes even further with the Samsung Intensity. Iit’s free with a two-year commitment, says Charles S. Golvin, Forrester Research analyst.

As you might guess, mobile subscribers ages 18 to 24 are nearly 50 percent more likely to own a quick messaging device than a smartphone.

Smartphones are most prevalent among subscribers ages 25 to 34, yet quick messaging devices are nearly as popular in this segment, and more than doubled their share in this group last year, says Golvin.

Quick messaging devices also appeal to a more mainstream audience. In terms of demographics and psychographics, quick messaging device users more closely resemble other mainstream mobile subscribers than do smartphone users.

While smartphone owners are overwhelmingly the male, well educated technology optimists that personify the early adopter, quick messaging device owners earn slightly less than the average subscriber and are more likely to be female.

More importantly for mobile operators, the quick messaging device owners spend a much higher percentage of their monthly income on mobile services than does the average subscriber.

Ttext messaging (SMS) is the driver. Some 70 percent of quick messaging device owners say they use SMS daily.

From a mobile operator's point of view, quick messaging customers are important because they are "mobile centric." Their traffic is much more likely to remain on the mobile network than to terminate on a landline and their communication is more likely to end up on another phone than on a PC.

More than 60 percent of quick messaging device owners use multimedia messaging (MMS), which most often exploits the phone’s camera and terminates on another mobile phone. For large operators like Verizon Wireless and AT&T in particular, this traffic is more likely to be “on-net,” which reduces their fees from interconnections with other operators.

Users with a quick messaging device are more likely to be primarily motivated by entertainment than the average mobile subscriber. Therefore, it’s no surprise that these subscribers are among the most avid purchasers of content for their mobile phone, says Golvin.

Nearly half of quick messaging device owners say they bought at least one form of content in the past six months, versus only one quarter of all subscribers.

"Heavy Texters" are a fast-growing mobile end user segment.

Mobile Social Networking Doubles

About 10 percent of social network interactions now occur on mobile devices, compared to five percent 12 months ago, Forrester Research notes.

Interestingly, that is just about the same percentage of U.S. consumers who use mobile devices to interact with their email. According to a study by Epsilon, about nine percent of North American users do so.

Both of those trends have implications, bearing directly on how much people can substitute mobile access for fixed PC access to applications.

That in turn has implications for the design of Web services and applications that can be optimized for mobile use.

T-Mobile USA Sidekick Data Nearly Fully Recovered

T-Mobile USA and Microsoft now say they have “recovered most, if not all, customer data for those  Sidekick customers whose data was affected by the recent outage,” says Roz Ho, Microsoft corporate VP.

"We plan to begin restoring users’ personal data as soon as possible, starting with personal contacts, after we have validated the data and our restoration plan," Ho says. "We will then continue to work around the clock to restore data to all affected users, including calendar, notes, tasks, photographs and high scores, as quickly as possible."

"We now believe that data loss affected a minority of Sidekick users," Ho added. Despite that good news, two class action lawsuits have been filed against T-Mobile USA, alleging that the company misled consumers into believing that their data was more secure than was the case.

Wal-Mart Straight Talk a Tipping Point?

In March of 2009, the Opinion Research Center estimated that 8.7b million Americans already had discontinued their mobile service because of the recession, and suggested that as many as 60 million mobile users would seek ways to reduce spending.

One way many consumers seem to have done so is to substitute prepaid service for contract plans. That would account for robust subscriber growth for virtually all providers of prepaid service since then.

But Wal-Mart's new “Straight Talk” prepaid service, offered at the $30 and $45 levels, could end up being the “tipping point for millions of consumers who are already considering moving away from expensive contract-based cell phone service,” says Allen Hepner, New Millennium Research executive director.

Hepner believes that the $30 plan (with 1,000 minutes, 1,000 texts per month, mobile Web access and no-extra cost 411 calls, with no contract and no penalties) and the $45 plan (unlimited calling, texting, mobile Web and 411) that Wal-Mart now offers under the “Straight Talk” brand are going to get serious attention.

With average monthly contract plans reported to be about $81, the more than 140 million U.S. contract-based wireless customers who use less than 550 minutes a month may now have even more reason to consider switching to a less expensive cell phone option, particularly in a changing environment in which plans for 1,000 minutes are available through Wal-Mart for $30 per month, Hepner argues.

In March 2009, ORC estimated that there were 29 million prepaid accounts in service, representing about 16 percent of the total base of mobile users.

“We see that 8,740,000 Americans, that is 19 percent of consumers without a cell phone, report that they already have ‘discontinued cell phone service in the last six months because of actual job loss, fear of job loss, the recession, or any other related financial concerns," said Graham Hueber, Opinion Research Center senior researcher.

At the same time, ORC suggested that 39 percent of postpaid mobile customers--60.3 million consumers--were likely to cut back on their cell phones to save money, the Opinion Research Corporation estimated.

Wal-Mart Gets into the Mobile Phone Business

Competition in the voice business is about to get more heated, as Wal-Mart now says it will be a  retailer of mobile phone service, partnering with American Movil to sell low-cost service pre-paid service under the "Straight Talk" brand. The company is offering unlimited voice and text minutes for $45 a month, or 1,000 minutes and 1,000 text messages for $30 a month.

AT&T just introduced a new $60 a month pre-paid service under its "GoPhone" brand with unlimited U.S. voice calls and unlimited text messaging to the U.S., Mexico, Canada and more than 100 other countries.

The plan includes unlimited IM picture and video messages. The service does not require a contract, and offers a range of full keyboard devices.

And AT&T recently reevaluated its position on use of Skype from its Apple iPhones, using the mobile network, not just Wi-Fi.

All the moves show the intensified competition in the prepaid wireless segment, one of the few areas of untapped growth for mobile providers.

Still, the new activity around voice pricing only accentuates the on-going trend, which is that voice, though the historic driver of revenue for mobile and fixed providers, will not be the driver in the future.

As JP Morgan analyst Mike McCormack notes, voice accounts for $50-$60 of the $95 in monthly revenue generated by the typical iPhone user. If the average user were to drop AT&T’s unlimited voice plan ($99.99 a month) in favor of its cheapest ($39.99 a month), the carrier could lose upward of 20 percent to 33 percent of its voice revenue, at least from iPhone users.

In the past, industry executives accurately could say they were in the telephone or voice business. That won't work in the future, when they primarily will be in the communications business, with significant operations in the content and application businesses as well.

Consumers Don't "Want" UC, But they Use It

Unified Communications is one of those buzzword terms people in the communications use, but doesn't necessarily resonate with consumer users. That doesn't mean consumers do not like and use UC, they just don't think about it as "UC."

More often than not, "UC" masquerades as "cool apps" that allow users to manage their communications, voice mail, video services email and other messages. These days, that value is available in the form of mobile apps downloadable from a mobile app store.

That's why users are spending more time checking out apps that actually are forms of UC, even when those apps aren't pitched as being "UC" apps.

Comcast’s mobile application for the iPhone and iPod Touch is an example. The Comcast app  provides one-stop access to key features of Comcast Digital Voice, Digital Cable and high-speed Internet services.

It allows to read and compose emails from Comcast.net, listen to home voice mail from one mailbox, manage landline voicemail through a visual interface, forward home calls to the iPhone, check TV listings, watch on-demand movie trailers, synch all universal address book contacts to the iPhone and add pictures to their favorite contacts.

YouMail, CallWave, PhoneFusion and Google Voice provide other examples. Those apps  allow people to instantly read transcripts of voicemails, screen calls and manage greetings by caller, for example.

Apple’s "MobileMe" service that pushes new email, contacts, web bookmarks, and calendar events over the air to iPhone, Mac, and PC so that data is synchronized.

All of those are examples of how UC looks in the consumer market. People do not seem to care what we call it. They like the higher functionality and use it. But don't ask them whether they "want unified communications." The question won't make sense.

T-Mobile USA Has No Urge to Merge

Deutsche Telekom AG Chief Financial Officer Timotheus Hoettges says there’s no need for further consolidation of the U.S. mobile market, apparently squashing the notion that T-Mobile USA might try to buy Sprint Nextel.

“There are four national players in the U.S. market for 300 million households, while in Europe, where we have 350 million households, there are 50-70 operators,” Hoettges says, according to Bloomberg. “We believe in our chances of being the challenger.”

Getting its third generation network strategy into higher gear remaining a key challenge.

“There is no question that we lost customers because many of our customers couldn’t get 3G.,” Hoettges says. “We now have to make sure that we can capitalize on the network in the top-10 cities where we have invested.”

Deutsche Telekom gets 24 percent of its revenue from T- Mobile USA, which saw its revenue drop 2.3 percent in the most-recent quarter.

On top of that is what T-Mobile USA can do about fourth-generation network capacity, which will require additional spectrum or wholesale sourcing.

So far, T-Mobile USA hasn't ruled out wholesale sourcing or additional spectrum acquisition. Clearwire's 4G network is rumored to be a contender, if T-Mobile decides to source spectrum rather than acquire more spectrum.

Android: What's in it for Google

Why is Google so aggressive about giving away millions of copies of its royalty-free mobile operating system? It is expected to lead directly to mobile search revenue. Jeffries &Co. thinks Google mobile search revenue will cross the $500 million mark in 2011, up from roughly $180 million in 2009, for example.

Android devices will be available on all four leading U.S. mobile carriers in 2010, so the issue is how much penetration the Android operating system will be able to get.

Beyond what Android means for Google, the issue is what it means for the service providers selling devices powered by Android.

There is speculation that Verizon, for example, plans a major initiative centered around Android to battle the Apple iPhone. Verizon apparently has been mulling the value of getting the Apple iPhone, but might have decided to push Android devices and applications instead.

T-Mobile executives have to be wondering what they will do now that Verizon has positioned itself as a major proponent of Android, as T-Mobile had been touting Android early on as a differentiator.

But if all the top-four providers are selling Android devices, using the software to differentiate user experience might become key. Apple prefers to maintain a uniform interface. Android actually enables differentiated user interfaces. So the issue is whether Android supporters will be able to create end user experiences pitched to particular end user segments that are compelling enough to create viable device segments.

Twitter, social networking, Web browsing, email, voice and texting are examples of lead end user applications that have, or can be, the center of "application specific" device sales and usage modes.

Google expects to win by growing its ad business, no matter how many distinct new niches can be created.

ShoZu Launches App Store

ShoZu Ltd has launched its App Store, where smartphone owners can purchase the ShoZu social media app for most major mobile operating systems. The store complements ShoZu’s availability at Apple’s App Store, Nokia’s OVI store and Research in Motion’s BlackBerry App World.

The ShoZu App Store currently offers the ShoZu app for BlackBerry, Windows Mobile and Nokia smartphones, as well as iPhones, with support for additional models and operating systems to be announced. The ShoZu App Store sells the app for the same price as the third-party app stores.

ShoZu describes itself as an intelligent social media hub allowing people to easily exchange video, pictures and commentary between mobile devices and favorite social networks, photo sharing sites and information resources.

The company’s technology provides fast, easy, one-click uploads of photos and video clips from the mobile to the Web, full-resolution photo and video delivery without compression. It also can push content to the phone and work in the background even if a connection is dropped.

Which User Segments are Most Likely to Switch to Prepaid?

Prepaid wireless has been on a tear of late, growing to 55 million U.S. users and about 17 percent of all U.S. wireless accounts in service. And though prepaid traditionally has been centered on "banking challenged," "low income" or "youth" market segments, that is starting to change as consumers from a wider range of segments seem to be opting for

Often thought of as a "consumer" option, one also has to wonder whether at least some business users might consider switching to prepaid, for at least some employee segments.

That, at least, is what Compass Intelligence thinks could be happening at smaller firms, for example. A recent change that could be driving such interest are new "unlimited" talk and texting plans from firms such as AT&T.

In a recent survey, Compass Intelligence found that a high percentage of respondents indicate plans to give new prepaid devices to one or more employees.

Another segment Compass Intelligence found was interested in prepaid plans are "larger families."  The larger the family, the more mobiles they currently use and the more likely they will replace postpaid wireless devices with prepaid options, Compass Intelligence says.

Users with multiple mobile devices also are more likely to indicate they plan to replace a postpaid wireless account with a prepaid option as compared to other segments.

About 11 percent of the respondents with three or more mobiles are willing to replace one or more of their postpaid mobiles with prepaid, while only three percent of the respondents with only one mobile device indicated plans to do so.

When adding a new device, 22 percent of respondents indicate they will add prepaid mobile.

The apparent relationship between prepaid demand and family size and number of devices is likely the result of U.S. consumers and businesses seeing wireless devices as "nice-to-have" items that are useful for more members of families and employees, along with the ability to limit financial exposure.

One of the advantages of prepaid service is that it can be terminated easily, allowing parents and business managers to quickly cut back on such service if necessary.

AT&T Launches New $60 Unlimited Prepay Plan

 AT&T has launched a new $60-a-month unlimited talk and text plan. AT&T's "Unlimited Talk and Text" plan for GoPhone is available October 12, 2009 and offers unlimited nationwide calling and unlimited texting to anyone in the United States, plus texting to Mexico, Canada and more than 100 other countries worldwide, for an additional fee.

“We recognize GoPhone customers have a need for unlimited calling or texting without the commitment of an annual contract,” says Judy Cavalieri, vice president of Prepaid Products for AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets.

The prepaid offer comes without contract, and can be paid for completely "as you go" or as a monthly rate plan, without a contract, credit check or deposit.

The offer is evidence of a new level of competiton in the wireless prepaid business, which now is starting to compete more directly with postpaid offers. Handset limitations are emerging as the key difference between postpaid and prepaid offers, to an extent, not usage charges or even form of payment.