Hosted Business VoIP Seats: Long Ways to Go

Ike Elliott over at Telecosm has completed a partial survey of business VoIP seats now in service. It's a tough number to come up with and is not exhaustive. But it is instructive.

The issue some of us have raised is whether hosted VoIP ever will be a business bigger than legacy Centrex was, in which case market saturation could come at about 33 million seats in service.

Ike's respondents do not represent the whole universe, but are instructive. We have a long ways to go before we can answer the question of how big hosted business IP telephony will be.

Apple Yanks 3G iPhone in Canada

Apple has decided not to sell the iPhone 3G in its retail stores across Canada in protest of Rogers price plans, according to AppleInsider. A minimum three-year contract for $60-a-month buys 150 talk time minutes, 75 text messages and 400 megabytes of data downloads. It clearly is an awful deal.

Information Overload

Wall Street Journal contributor Gordon Crovitz, writing about the dangers of information overload, points out that knowledge workers change activities every three minutes, usually because they're distracted by email or a phone call. It then takes almost half an hour to get back to the task once attention is lost.

A decline in our ability to focus is a side effect of the otherwise powerful tools we use to gather and analyze information, Crovitz argues. That has enterprises experimenting with ways to limit interruptions, at least some days of the week, and at meetings.

He argues that "we humans can be slow, but eventually we catch up to the technologies we create and figure out how best to use them."

I have something of an advantage in that regard, as I have very little need for active internal collaboration. I have to spend lots of time doing research, but very little time coordinating with coworkers.

Still, upon reflection, I have taken some steps to limit interruptions. Sometimes I just turn my phones off. For perhaps six months, I have not opened any instant messaging clients, for any reason other than to place a global call using Skype. Even that function, though, now can be dispensed with as I have added VoIP clients for both my mobiles.

That won't be a viable option for lots of other workers for whom internal collaboration is much more important. Still, one reasonable response is simply not to respond to every inbound email. In my case, I simply delete most messages without reading much more than the headers, or sometimes, on my BlackBerry, fractions of headers. On the BlackBerry, just the few characters displayed on the first line of any message is as far as I'll get.

Perhaps that is a severe sorting mechanism, but it does allow for the time I need to think about things, which is the job I have. Overload might be a problem, but it is not a problem without a resolution.

In my particular case, it means RSS feeds always get checked, all day long. So are text messages. Email is fairly often checked, but with very heavy deletion policies. At least for the moment, IMs are not an issue. It simply is a tool I have decided not to use. Again, my concrete situation is different than that of most enterprise users. IM might actually save time in that scenario, because of the presence function.

Really High iPhone Costs in New Zealand

For those of you who tend to think U.S. prices for any broadband service are higher than anywhere else, consider what New Zealand customers will be paying for a 3G iPhone with a one-gigabyte data plan: $185 U.S. dollars a month.

That comes with 600 minutes of talk time and 600 text messages.

Buyers of the least-expensive data plan (costing about U.S. $59) will have to pay $406 to buy an 8 GByte iPhone or $517 U.S. to get a 16 Gbyte model.

AT&T's best pricing plans are reserved for mobile customers switching from other providers. Existing AT&T customers who are not currently eligible for an upgrade discount can purchase iPhone 3G for $399 for the 8 GB model or $499 for the 16 GB model. Both options require a new two-year service agreement. But the $30 a month data plan includes unlimited usage.

In the future, AT&T will offer a no-contract-required option for $599 (8GB) or $699 (16GB).

Users switching from other mobile providers can get an iPhone for either $199 (8 GB model) or $299 (16 GB model), with the monthly data plan of $30. U.S. users on any mobile provider's plan can qualify for the lower device prices if they buy before July 11, 2008.

For U.S. users not already customers of AT&T mobile services, or not eligible for an upgrade, both device and data plan prices are reasonable, compared to other plans offered in other countries.

Impatient at Broadband Adoption Pace? Don't Be

Americans are an impatient bunch, and pundits are even more unforgiving. We tend to want everything now, and seem to tire of complicated problems that take a while to solve. Consider broadband, which continues to be seen as a problem in some quarters. There still are calls to "national action" to fix the problem. History suggests there is no problem to be fixed.

Broadband reached 50 percent penetration of the consumer market in 10 years--faster than any number of other highly-popular consumer electronics innovations that do not seem to require "national action" to fix. The popular compact disk player took 10.5 years to reach 50-percent penetration. VCRs, another popular innovation in its day, took 14 years to reach half of homes.

Mobile phones took 15 years to reach half of homes.Color televisions took 18 years to reach 50 percent penetration. PCs took 18 years to reach half of homes. It is worthwhile to recall that prices for all these products initially were quite high, but dropped dramatically as volume rose.

Technology also seems to be the reason why any reasonable end user will tend to say their choices of devices, services, applications, as well as the prices they pay for those products and services, are measurably, sometimes dramatically lower these days than before the Telecommunications Act of 1996, which some contestants deem to be a failure.

Perhaps it is worth observing that end users--consumers and businesses--are far better off today than they were before the Act. That some contestants have fared better than others is undeniable. So perhaps another observation is in order. Despite any failures of the Act, users universally have more choices, more variety and lower prices in just about every segment of communications today, than they did in 1995.

So perhaps what has happened is that technology and open markets have outstripped all the particular policy regimes in a decisive way. It might be fair to say that success has occurred despite the Act. That there are many unhappy contestants is undeniable. But if the objective was an explosion of choices, better applications and lower prices, that has occurred.

That isn't to say a similar outcome couldn't have been obtained under some other set of policies. European regulators have pursed different courses. In a few cases, those different policies have resulted not only in higher broadband penetration, but also have provided higher bandwidth at lower prices. Japan and Korea come to mind.

Still, it probably also is worth noting that both those nations have domestic business cultures quite distinct from those of Europe, Africa, North America, South America and the rest of Asia. State-directed investment plays a significantly different role than elsewhere, and both nations are relatively compact and feature high-density housing. Both those factors, plus state-directed investment, mean both nations can do things that would be difficult elsewhere.

So it is true that U.S. broadband does not have the highest bandwidth or the lowest price among all nations. Those honors are held by small countries, generally with high-density populations (which means short access loops), or vigorous state-sponsored investment. In broadband, as elsewhere, scale makes a difference.

Wireless Bug is a Feature, But Not for Users

Sometimes "bugs" are "features;" the issue being "for whom" it is a feature. One end user "bug" is a bandwidth-saving feature for a mobile provider. Specifically, BlackBerry emails that strip out HTML links, saving as much as an order of magnitude (10 times) the bandwidth required if full HTML were displayed.

"If you are a Blackberry user, you are familiar with the fact that emails containing HTML links don’t display the graphics, but rather cause you to have to scroll down past that jibberish HTML text," says Seeking Alpha author Anton Wahlman. "It’s ugly and annoying, but those of us who are engineering-minded know the reason we have to suffer through this sub-optimal experience: bandwidth."

"By stripping each email of all of those colors and pictures, less bandwidth is utilized," says Wahlman.

This goes to the heart of Blackberry’s main argument to the carriers, such as T-Mobile USA and AT&T. Unlike other email-capable handhelds, Blackberries provide for a more predictable, and lower, bandwidth utilization.

Other devices, such as Apple's iPhone (AAPL), are making some people expect that email on the handheld will incorporate HTML just like it does on the PC.

Blackberry is supposed to be enabling that feature this summer. If there are more than 10 million U.S. Blackberry users, receiving probably 100 emails per day, or one billion emails, the amount of wireless bandwidth needed to support those emails will more than double the average size of the messages.

Fixing the "bug" will also mean eliminating a mobile network provider "feature."

IP VPN Prices Not a Commodity

IP VPN prices vary dramatically, by service provider, by country, and by class of service, TeleGeography finds. For example, while the median price of a 2 Mbps E-1 IP VPN port in London was USD 576 per month in Q1 2008, a comparable connection would cost USD 1,034 in Hong Kong, USD 2,871 in Beijing and USD 6,083 in La Paz, Bolivia.

The wide range of prices quoted by telecommunications companies for similar services within a given city suggests that telcos, too, are having a difficult time finding appropriate prices for their services. For example, in Beijing, prices for 2 Mbps VPN ports varied from just over USD 1,300 per month to nearly USD 5,000 per month.

The rate of price change also varies widely by market. The median monthly price of a 1.5 Mbps T-1 port in Atlanta fell 19 percent from USD 580 to USD 470 between the second quarter 2007 and first quarter 2008.

In contrast, the median E-1 port price in Dubai, one of the most expensive markets tracked by TeleGeography, fell only four percent, from USD 16,538 to USD 15,877.

"The tremendous range and variability of prices reflect that this market is neither transparent, nor commoditized," says TeleGeography analyst Gregory Bryan.

TW Telecom, AT&T Rebranding Costs

TW Telecom--formerly Time Warner Telecom--will have to spend between $6 million and $7 million to re-brand the 2,800-employee company. Of course, it could be worse. AT&T executives have not to my knowledge ever said what it actually cost to conduct a number of big rebranding exercises.

When SBC Communications was rebranded as AT&T, the cost was said to involve spending of about $1 billion. But that appears to be the most-affordable of recent efforts. When AT&T Wireless was rebranded as Cingular, the move is reported to have cost $4 billion. Some three years later, Cingular went back to AT&T, for possibly another $2 billion.

There have been other, arguably less-expensive rebranding efforts as well. There was the cost of rebranding BellSouth as AT&T, said to have cost as much as $2 billion. One has to assume the rebranding of Ameritech as SBC cost at least $1 billion. Add on the earlier rebranding of Pacific Telesis as SBC as well.

Add it up and rebranding probably has cost about $9 billion. Of course, some of that money would have been spent on the original brand names in any case, so it is not as though all of that was incremental spending.

Still, it's a huge expense. And then there's the brand equity partially represented on balance sheets in the form of good will. As they like to quip in the Congress, a billion here, a billion there; pretty soon it's real money.

T-Mobile 3G 20-City Launch in October?

CNet speculates that T-Mobile USA will include a Google Android phone as part of its nationwide 3G wireless network launch in perhaps 20 to 25 markets later this year, and perhaps as early as October.

T-Mobile reportedly plans to include the HTC Dream smartphone as one of its first 3G phones to launch with the network, according to reports.

T-Mobile started offering 3G service in New York City in May. And the company said at the launch that it would roll out the service in other top markets by the end of the year.

The Sony Ericsson Z780, a high-end Samsung cameraphone, and possibly the Motorola ZINE ZN5 also are reportedly to be offered.

Xohm Pricing Model

It's hard to say what might develop if and when the new Clearwire, incorporating Sprint Xohm and Clearwire assets, actually launches new unified offers. For the moment, as Sprint rolls out its WiMAX network in Baltimore, we should expect a la carte usage plans, much on the casual Wi-Fi model.

Sprint has said it will break with the traditional mobile model and offer service without contracts and termination fees.

So far, it seems as though monthly service will be priced around the going rates for comparable digital subscriber line and cable modem services.

Ofcom to Thread Fiber Through a Needle

Ofcom, the U.K. communications regulatory authority, will try to thread a needle this fall as it prepares to create a new framework encouraging fiber-to-customer deployment. On one hand, it wants to convince BT that a reasonable financial return can be earned if it deploys fiber-to-customer network.

On the other hand, Ofcom seems committed to a wholesale regime that allows competitors access to the network. And therein lies the problem. BT will want some assurance that wholesale rates resemble as closely as possible those it might get at commercially negotiated rates. That likely means relatively minimal price control.

BT's competitors will want healthy discounts that mirror what they currently can get for DSL infrastructure. Ofcom likely won't allow that, as such discounts arguably create too much uncertainty about rate of return.

That's a pretty tight needle to try and thread.

We Hold These Truths to be Self Evident

We hold these truths to be self evident; at all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

Broadband Growth Strongest in $20,000 to $40,000 Households

Broadband adoption rates between 2007 and 2008 were highest among households with annual income between $20,000 and $40,000, according to new research by the Pew Internet and American Life Project.

The only income group to experience declining broadband penetration was the less-than-$20,000 income group, which includes college students as well as other lower-income households.

The other notable divergence from growth rates in the 15 percent to 24 percent growth rates were among households with annual income above $100,000, where four percent growth was the norm. It is probably fair to say that wealthier households largely have adopted already.

Microsoft Enters Consumer Software as a Service Business

Microsoft Corp. has unveiled Microsoft Equipt, an all-in-one security and productivity software subscription service for consumers. The new offering is a move by Microsoft into the software as a service business.

Microsoft Equipt is $69.99 (U.S.) estimated retail price for a one-year renewable subscription. Each subscription will be good for three home PCs.

Microsoft Equipt will be sold in nearly 700 Circuit City stores in the U.S. starting mid-July 2008.

Microsoft Equipt includes Microsoft Office Home and Student 2007; Windows Live OneCare, the all-in-one security and PC management service; Windows Live tools, such as Windows Live Mail, Windows Live Messenger, Windows Live Photo Gallery and so they can connect and Office Live Workspace, a new service from Microsoft that makes it easy to save documents to a dedicated online Workspace and share them with friends and classmates.

What's Up with AT&T's Satellite Deal?

You are free to take your pick: AT&T has terminated its current contract with Dish Network simply to negotiate better terms; or AT&T has done so because there is a real chance it might partner with DirecTV. Either thesis has some merit.

AT&T represents about 15 percent of Dish Network’s gross subscriber adds, so losing the deal would likely lead to negative subscriber growth for Dish in 2009. From AT&T's perspective, switching providers would entail some costs, as well, so the most-logical scenario is simply that AT&T will use the new competition to extract better terms from Dish.

It wouldn't be the first time a major supplier has been played as a card against an existing supplier. At the margin, some would argue, DirecTV offers a richer menu of on-demand and HDTV programming.

But a value-price argument can be made for either satellite provider. There are the switching costs to consider, of course. But there could be more going on under the surface than is apparent.

One never should discount what Liberty Media Chairman John Malone (Liberty Media has a controlling interest in DirecTV) might be thinking, strategy-wise. At his best, he is a move or two ahead of everybody else. I don't know whether that is a factor this time around, but anytime he does decide one of his assets has a strategic opportunity, one pays attention. He does.