Private Interests, Public Purposes

For every public purpose, there is a corresponding private interest.

http://arstechnica.com/telecom/news/2009/03/microsoft-broadband-stimulus-should-help-hospital-schools.ars

VoIP Revenue Will Grow 20% in 2009, IBISWorld Says

Telecommunications and internet related services are now so ingrained in the daily lives of businesses and consumers that they will hold up relatively well compared to other areas of the economy, say analysts at IBISWorld.

"One shining light will be VoIP, which competes on price against more established service providers," the firm says. "Consumer substitution from wired telecommunications to VoIP will accelerate but a weaker economy and lack of available finance will result in many smaller VoIP providers exiting the industry."

VOIP revenue is expected to grow 20.1 percent in 2009.

http://www.ibisworld.com/recession2009/default.aspx

Wireless Providers to Collaborate on Marketing "Best Practices"

The Mobile Marketing Association says the four largest U.S. wireless service providers--Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile USA-- have agreed to coordinate their mobile marketing guidelines with the MMA’s "best practices" guidelines. This industry-first agreement is intened to produce a dramatic reduction in the costs of launching mobile marketing campaigns, faster time to market for campaigns and improved consumer satisfaction by improving the consistency and efficiency of mobile marketing campaigns across the four major U.S. wireless service providers.

In addition to the four largest U.S. wireless service providers, major aggregators, brands and content owners includingVeriSign, Neustar, Limbo, and Thumbplay are supporting the process.

The agreement is expected to enhance efficiencies in running short code programs, accelerate the time to market for mobile campaigns, ensure monitoring programs and audit results are more consistent and reduce operational costs across the mobile marketing ecosystem.

http://www.mmaglobal.com/news/mobile-marketing-association-brokers-industry’s-first-cross-carrier-best-practices-verizon-wire

Cox Communications Plans CDMA, LTE Networks

Cox Cummunications is moving ahead with its plans to build an in-region moble broadband network using CDMA, the same platform used by Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel. Cox is said to be thinking more along the lines of Long Term Evolution for its fourth-generation network.

Huawei Technologies Co. says it has been selected to provide its end-to-end CDMA solutions and services to Cox Communications. Cox, the third-largest cable provider in the United States, will launch its new 3G wireless network utilizing Huawei’s LTE-ready SingleRAN solution and industry-leading 3900 Series base stations, Huawei says.

Cox might rely on its partnership with Clearwire or Sprint for out-of-region roaming. As Sprint's national network uses CDMA, it makes sense to rely on the Sprint network rather than WiMAX for out of region coverage.

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=174434&site=cdn

Addressing "Sustainability" of NTIA Broadband Stimulus Projects

The problem many applicants must face in crafting projects under the National Telecommunications & Information Administration portion of the American Recovery & Reinvestment Act ("stimulus bill") are the conflicting objectives.

The "broadband stimulus" portion of the ARRA is supposed to create jobs. Broadband is almost a secondary objective. The projects are supposed to have "measurable" goals. But economists aren't sure whether new broadband facilities actually create--or destroy--jobs.

All funds awarded under the NTIA program must be spent in two years, so are temporary, but the ARRA ideally expects "sustainability" of the projects once federal funding ends.

Nobody yet knows what "under-served" means, so many projects might actually be proposed in areas where there are two wired services providers as well as two satellite providers, plus three mobile broadband providers. Lots of people are "under-served" not because of lack of access to facilities but for some other reason: lack of interest, lack of knowledge, equipment or money.

Most people think the Rural Utilities Service portion of the program will address rural areas. But an argument can be made for rural programs under the NTIA rules that actually have a route to "sustainability" and "job creation" on a permanent basis.

That route is funding rural call center operations. NTIA funds can be used to create facilities, either "at home" or perhaps at new call center facilities, with monies used to train rural residents.

The sustainability of the jobs and connectivity once the NTIA funding runs out are provided by the call center operations. Since NTIA projects have a stated preference for education and job creation, proposals should be submitted by community colleges and state job training agencies, in conjunction with service providers that can provide the connectivity and equipment.

The objective would be to deliver a turnkey "call center" capability ready to be used by any firm requiring such capabilities.  It's a thought.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=100739283

Long Tail Yes, But Perhaps Not What You Were Expecting

In recent years much has been made of the implications of the "long tail" theorem, the notion that digital technology, digital goods and the Internet make possible a vast shift of commerce from the few large firms in any category to many hundreds to thousands of other firms.

Search market share indicates that the basic underlying theorem, the Pareto Principle, commonly understood as the "80/20" rule, does indeed operate.

But not in the ways some might predict. There is a search long tail, with four providers at the head of the curve, and then several score other smaller providers forming the tail.

Unfortunately, it does not appear that market share is much different from what might predict for physical goods. In search, as elsewhere in life, 20 percent of providers have 80 percent of the market share. In this case, a few percent of providers have 99 percent share.

http://www.altsearchengines.com/2009/03/27/the-top-30-alternative-search-engines-by-market-share/

TV Still Dominates "Three Screen" Viewing

TV Continues to represent 99 percent of viewing on all screens, according to the Council for Research Excellence. Contrary to some recent popular media coverage suggesting that more Americans are rediscovering "free TV" using the Internet, computer video tends to be quite small with an average time of just two minutes (a little more than 0.5 percent) a day.

Despite the proliferation of computers, video-capable mobile phones and similar devices, TV in the home still commands the greatest amount of viewing, even among those ages 18 to 24, the Council says. This appears to refute a common belief that Internet video and mobile phone video exposure among that group (as well as the 25 to 34 cohort) were significant in 2008.

Consumers in the 45 to 54 age group average the most daily screen time (just over 9.5 hours). The study also found the average for all other age groups to be "strikingly similar" at roughly 8.5 hours

Even in major metropolitan areas where commute times can be long and drive-time radio remains popular, computer use has replaced radio as the second most frequent media activity. Radio is now the third most popular media format while and print media ranks fourth.

Live TV led all video usage by a large margin, followed by DVDs, with DVRs third.

http://www.researchexcellence.com/news/032609_vcm.php

Social Networking Overtakes Email

Internet activity patterns are changing, according to Nielsen Online. In the past, email has been the "killer app" for Internet users. More recently, search replaced email.

These days, email has been eclipsed by search and social networking.

Two thirds of the world’s Internet population visit a social network or blogging site and the sector now accounts for almost 10 percent of all Internet activity time. "Member communities" have overtaken personal email to become the world’s fourth most popular online acivity after search, portals and PC software applications, Nielsen says.

The total amount spent online globally increased by 18 percent between December 2007 and December 2008. In the same period, however, the amount of time spent on member community sites rose by 63 percent to 45 billion minutes,  and on Facebook by a massive 566 percent, says Nielsen, growing from 3.1 billion minutes to 20.5 billion minutes.

"The staggering increase in the amount of time people are spending on these sites is changing the way people spend their time online and has ramifications for how people behave, share and interact within their normal daily lives," says Nielsen.

Consumer engagement within social networks has the potential to change the way consumers are targeted, not just through the digital medium, but through all forms of traditional media, Nielsen adds.

According to Nielsen Online, more people in the United States, Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are using social networks and blogs than email. Where 85.9 percent of respondents say they use search, 65.1 percent say they use email.

In addition, time spent on social networks and blogging sites is growing at over three times the rate of overall Internet growth.

http://www.nielsen-online.com/pr/pr_090309.pdf

Expect Upwards of $29 Billion in Fraud, Waste from Energy Dept. "Stimulus" Spending

When was the last time an infrastructure project--any infrastructure project--really was better because spending was rushed?

Based on rates of fraud already encountered by the Department of Energy, one might expect a 17.5 percent rate of fraud and waste, at minimum, for funds disbursed as part of the "stimulus" spending authorized by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

According to Energy Department Inspector General Gregory Friedman, the $165 billion in stimulus cash to be distributed by the Department so dwarfs the annual Department budget of $27 billion that the resources of the agency for getting the money spent while avoiding fraud and abuse will be sorely tested.

In the last four fiscal years the Department of Energy investigations into misspent federal funds have resulted in about 150 criminal convictions, and fines and recoveries of more than $190 million. This represents a little over 17.5 percent of budget money, and suggests the Energy Department can expect more than $29 billion in waste and fraud just within its slice of the stimulus pie.

Friedman's memo acknowledges that low income home weatherization is the program most at risk for fraud, so if you intend to be working on projects of that nature, expect a lot of extra paperwork and figure your bid overhead accordingly.

http://chicagoconstructionlaw.blogspot.com/

Less Churn is Sorta Good, Sorta Bad

At home entertainment is up, while almost anything outside the home is down, a survey sponsored by the Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing suggests.

Industry executives--both telco and cable--have been saying that with housing starts down and housing activity down, so are home moves.

Ironically, that has made it harder to attract new customers, as moving automatically creates a "change event" that opens the door for new providers.

The CTAM survey also suggests there is less appetite for trying new providers. So all those customers who aren't moving, also are less likely to churn. Lower churn is good. But some amount of churn also represents a sales opportunity.

Service providers in the small and medium business space note a roughly similar trend: people are less inclined to take on some amount of additional risk by switching current providers.

Another Take on "Cocooning"

One reason video entertainment services fare relatively well in a recession is that the perceived value of in-home entertainment increases.

http://anxietyindex.com/2009/03/when-spending-money-equals-saving-money/

Global VoIP Growth Slows

Global growth in local VoIP minutes seems to have slowed down a little, say researchers at iLocus. There was a sequential growth of seven percent in local VoIP traffic from the third quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2008, apparently caused by a decline in the rate of VoIP subscriber growth.

International long distanceVoIP minutes, on the other hand, experienced negative growth quarter over quarter. "This is perhaps due to the overall decline in international long distance traffic in the fourth quarter of 2008, iLocus says. The negative growth also could be due to slight bit of consolidation in the service provider segment, as well. National long distance minutes saw a healthy growth rate owing to the growing use of IP networks by wireless carriers to transport NLD traffic, iLocus says.

In the fourth quarter users consumed 107. 2 billion local minutes, 298.1 billion national long distance minutes and 22.5 billion international long distance minutes.

http://www.ilocus.com/2009/03/voip_minutes_in_4q08_touch_428.html

Don't Assume A Return to Normal

There's a reason for voice, data and video entertainment providers to be obsessive about how their consumers are behaving during the current recession. Presenting a customer with a chance to switch, to change behavior, is dangerous because the changes, once integrated into daily life, can become permanent.

"Don't assume a return to normal," John Quelch, Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, warns. "The longer and deeper the recession, the more likely consumers will adjust their attitudes and behaviors permanently."

"Their coping mechanisms may become ingrained and define a new normal." More than that, the competitive landscape likely will have changed as well. One would expect to see mergers, acquisitions, company failures and launches that mean the post-recession market looks different than the pre-recession market.

That means buyers might be looking at all product offers with new eyes.

http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/6139.html

FCC Asks for Advice on "Broadband Stimulus" Rules

The Federal Communications Commission is asking for comment on how to distribute broadband funding under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, commonly known as the "broadband stimulus" program.

The FCC has already established a separate docket for parties wishing to comment generally on a rural broadband strategy (GN Docket No. 09-29). The FCC now is seeking comment as part of its consultative role with the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (“NTIA”) and the Department of Agriculture’s Rural Utilities Service (“RUS”), the agencies that actually are charged with disbursing the funds.

The FCC specifically is seeking comment on five core terms and concepts:

The definition of "unserved area;"

The definition of "underserved area;"

The definition of "broadband;"

The non-discrimination obligations that will be contractual conditions of the Broadband Fund Opportunities Program ("BTOP") grants; and

The network interconnection obligation that will be contractual conditions of BTOP grants.

Comments are limited to these five specified items and are due on April 13, 2009 and should be submitted in GN Docket No. 09-40.

The comment period extends to April 13, 2009. That implies that no final rules can be issued by NTIA or RUS until May, since NTIA and RUS staffers will require time to read and digest the new input.

That in turn means the first third of the funds, which by statute must be released before the end of June, will require submission and awards over a roughly two-month period, at best, by agencies which never before have had to process, much less award, so much money in such a short time frame.

For better or worse, that suggests projects in the first round will be weighted to providers with enough "track record" that NTIA and RUS can reduce the risk of making awards to applicants that are not well placed to execute, that may squander the money or that may prove otherwise embarassing when later oversight reveals what actually happened, or didn't happen, with the awarded funds.

And though most observers probably think the funds are supposed to lead to deployment of new facilities, the statute is part of a "stimulus" package that is supposed to create jobs in the near term. That could lead to a situation where projects actually do not create facilities or make better use of facilities but rather mostly can be pitched as projects that create jobs related to those facilities and use of facilities. "Training" or "education," in other words, might play a bigger role than some think.

That isn't necessarily a bad thing if one assumes that a great deal of non-use is related to people not understanding what they can do with broadband and the Internet, or non-use by people who think they understand what they can do, but don't feel too comfortable using computers and software.

Permanent Changes After Recession?

It isn't yet clear how changes in consumer use of communications and entertainment might change on a more-permanent basis once the recession is over. So far, there has been little tangible evidence of significant behavioral change.

About the only measurable change I've been able to find is an increase--by about one percent--of mobile users on prepaid, rather than postpaid, wireless plans.

There might be more-permanent changes in the business market, though, such as wider adoption of open source software.

http://www.hitsearchlimited.com/news/999871/